Tame inflation and stronger real growth are good signs for stock market: WisdomTree's Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

9월 PPI/CPI 수준이 예상에 부합, 전년비 헤드라인 2.9%로 여전히 연준 목표 상회. 관세 영향은 일시적 세금성 물가 상승으로 봐서 연준이 이를 무시해야 한다고 주장. 2분기 GDP 상향, 3분기 성장률 추정 3%대 중후반(애틀랜타연은 3% 중반 이상 낙관), 골드만은 2%대 중반. 고용 증가 둔화(다음주 고용 예상 5만명)와 장단기 금리차 논리로 연준 25bp 인하 2회 지지. 장기 인플레 급등 가능성은 낮다고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Ask Wharton School professor of finance and wisdom chief economist Jeremy Seagull. Uh, Professor Seagull, what was your take on on the report today? Obviously came in line as expected, but year-over-year inflation at the headline up 2.9% still above the Fed's target rate. Yeah, most certainly. But but the news was good.

02. It hit all the targets. Uh, nothing no upside uh surprise and and yesterday strong strong economic data. I think that uh both on the the trade deficit going down and on the durable goods report and I think all forecasters have now raised their GDP estimates for the third quarter. So with tame inflation, stronger uh real growth, I mean that these are all good signs for the stock market.

03. And so you would call inflation tame because of the month-over-month number? Well, I yes, the month and over month number and and I do expect the tariffs to cause a a bump in inflation, but I think that the Fed has to look beyond that because tariffs are really like a tax and uh you know, that's not a sign that there's too much demand for goods in the economy.

04. That's what the Fed has to look out for. Too many people want to buy things that are in in short supply. But if if prices go up because of attacks, that's something that the Fed should should back away from. So X the tariffs, I actually think the inflation numbers are coming in better than than I and most others had anticipated.

05. So earlier this week, it was a couple days ago now at this point, I I think uh Michelle Bowman made some comments about thinking the Fed should actually deemphasize inflation. What do you make of those comments? Yeah, I mean I I think because of the how much is going to come from tariffs, that's that's a noise that we don't know.

06. Um and as a result is that that the the information in the uh inflation uh news about permanent inflation, what the Fed should be concerned of is is is not as good yet. Now we have the data on uh employment. There's been a lot of question about, you know, how good is that data? But at least that that doesn't have the same type of problems with a tax on it the way that we do uh with the goods on the inflation front.

07. Of course, you know, the we all know the government shuts down that allimportant employment report Friday. Are we going to get it or not? I mean, you know, next week is an important week, last week of the month. A lot of data comes through. Let's hope that we can get a settlement there. Yeah, absolutely.

08. That is something that would be sort of key for the market and investors that we would lose if the government does indeed shut down or stay shut down for that long. You mentioned GDP. I'd like to circle back to that. We were talking about tariffs on goods, but but the GDP numbers for services, I mean, pretty healthy spending there as well.

09. Yeah, I I mean the the GDP now, we had a big uh increase in the estimate on on the second quarter, but remember the first quarter was negative. So, actually the first half of this year was under 2%. Um, now Atlanta Fed thinks this third quarter is going to be in the high 3s. They tend to be a little bit optimistic.

10. Uh, Goldman Sachs thinks it's going to be sort of in the mid2s. That's still decent growth. It's not runaway growth by any means. And I really think this fourth quarter is a real test for the whole tariff hypothesis because we know how much retail spending goes on in December with the holidays. you know, I mean, like the firms I think uh retail firms make all their profits in the month of December hold even barely on the other 11 months.

11. So, we're going to really I mean I I think this fourth quarter coming up is really going to be the important tell about how much uh do tariffs really going to impact consumer spending? Absolutely. So then in the meantime before the Fed is armed with any of that information from retailers and from the full impact of tariffs, we think they're going to cut.

12. I mean it's very very rare very only a few instances I think in history where the Fed cuts and then pauses for a while so we think the cuts are coming but does it feel appropriate to just stay with 25 is 50 off the table at this point what did they do in the vacuum of information about the impact of tariffs that's still we believe not fully baked

13. well I think there's three things that argue for continuation of the cut certainly uh you know payroll growth has come way down I mean the estimates for next Friday are only 50,000 remember we used to be 152 200, even 300,000. Um, and also the fact that in general, short-term interest rates should be about a percentage point below long-term interest rates.

14. And we have well, we have the 10-year at about 410 415. And that does argue for trying to target the low 3s uh uh on that. And and furthermore, what you know variable that I always look at, money supply growth has been sluggish, which means that I don't see really that this is anything like an inflationary surge uh that we saw in 2001 and 2002 that got the Fed and the economy in so much trouble.

15. So for those three reasons, I think a 25 basis point cut in the next two meetings is still appropriate.