저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 달러 약세·인플레이션 및 지정학적 분열 속에서 달러 자산 축소와 분산투자, 우량주 장기보유가 핵심 대응이라는 취지의 영상. 달러 가치 및 통화 위기: 통화를 보유하는 것은 부채를 보유하는 것과 같으며, 인플레이션과 세계 불안 속에서 달러 가치 하락 가능성을 강조. 명확한 수치 예측은 없음. 역사적 패턴: Ray Dalio의 500년 연구를 인용해 부채 화폐화, 좌우 포퓰리즘 대립, 강대국 경쟁(중국 부상·미국 상대적 쇠퇴)이 반복된다고 주장. 1930년대 민주주의 붕괴 사례 언급. 제재와 블록화: 미국의 제재가 달러 체제 대안 모색을 촉발하며, 중국이 제재를 받을 경우 인플레이션·물자 부족·자본통제 가능성을 가정적으로 제시. 지정학 전망: 우크라이나 전쟁 확대 가능성과 진영 형성이 향후 6개월 이내 명확해질 것이라고 언급. 자본이동 제한 가능성과 국제 송금 제약 우려 제기. 인플레이션 전망: 향후 수년간 현재보다 높은 인플레이션과 비효율을 예상, 공급망 문제 악화 가능성 언급. 분산투자 권고: 상관관계가 낮은 15개 이상의 자산 보유를 권장, 금과 S&P500 간 낮은 상관관계 예시, 암호화폐도 분산 수단으로 언급. 주식 전략: 고평가 주식은 매도해 수익 실현 후 저평가 종목으로 재배분 권고. 언급 종목으로 시스코, 스타벅스, 코카콜라 보유 권고(코카콜라는 낮은 베타·배당 강조, 장기투자 관점). 장기투자 및 리스크: 장기 보유 시 변동성이 낮아진다는 주장, 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거 사례 인용. 분산으로 위험을 줄이는 것이 수익을 줄이는 것보다 효과적이라고 강조. 출연자 전망: 명시적 단기 가격 예측은 없고, 장기적 구조 변화와 분산 대응을 중심으로 한 견해.
다듬은 글
currency equals debt now when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies as inflation surges and Global markets remain unstable coupled with the looming threat of War worldwide the possibility of the devaluation or collapse of the dollar becomes increasingly real given this impending crisis many insightful investors who are concerned about preserving their assets are asking a crucial question what should one possess in the event of a dollar collapse it may seem counter-intuitive but not all investments will decline during a global economic downturn that's why Ray dalio a seasoned Global macro investor with over 50 years of experience has extensively researched the economic history of the past 500 years in this video you will gain valuable insights into how historical events have shaped today's market and economy by comprehending these Dynamics you will be better prepared to anticipate and overcome future challenges in your investment Ventures throughout his 50-year career in International Investment Ray dalio has made a remarkable observation we are often caught off guard by unprecedented events this realization prompt dalio that coach chairman and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates to embark on a comprehensive study of 500 years of History in his research he Unearthed recurring patterns shaped by economic turmoil societal shifts and Global conflicts decade after decade this in-depth exploration was essential in understanding the unprecedented occurrences we face in our lifetimes such as the unprecedented levels of debt financed spending dalio compiled his research for his latest book principles for dealing with the changing World Order which profoundly shaped his concerns and perspectives during an interview on Meet The Leader podcast at the 2022 World economic Forum annual meeting in Davos dalio shared how historical knowledge can assist leaders in navigating the current challenging period and gaining a better understanding of and foresight into future issues Ray dalio made a fascinating Discovery during his extensive research he realized that many events that took him by surprise in his lifetime had occurred frequently throughout history these events include the monetization of debt which affects inflation and various other aspects when there's a lot of debt one man's debts are another man's Financial assets another noteworthy phenomenon is the significant internal conflict between leftist populism and rightist populism fueled by extreme wealth and value disparities this internal struggle holds considerable consequences additionally there is a struggle between multiple forces exemplified by the tensions involving Russia Ukraine and NATO furthermore the rise of China as a major power and the relative decline of the United States contributed to various types of conflicts such as great power competitions without a global court or justice system economic battles in the form of sanctions become prevalent during specific periods currently the United States is imposing sanctions which can be viewed as a form of economic Warfare and carry significant implications for the Dollar's strength a notable shift occurs in the dollar system as various countries seek Alternatives it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment and there's there's a shifting of those currencies similar situations have occurred before such as when the United States froze Japanese Financial assets and imposed economic sanctions resulting in changes to the Japanese Financial landscape now consider a hypothetical scenario where China which accounts for 22 percent of imported manufactured goods in the U.S faces sanctions the potential consequences would be significant leading to inflation shortages and overall detrimental effects in response tighter regulations may be considered including implementing Capital controls these developments serve as a reminder of the internal divisions that contributed to the downfall of democracies during World War II with left and right-wing populism fueling conflicts as we transition into a new climate there is a growing allocation of ideological and political resources leading to increased challenges such as training limitations and currency exchange restrictions in various areas where these resources are utilized the combined operation of these three components significantly and negatively impact economic efficiency leading to increased inflation understanding how these components function together and their logical interplay requires an awareness of historical patterns throughout history there has been a recurring pattern of a new world order emerging from a conflict between opposing parties the Victorious side establishes a new domestic and Global Order often realizing the benefits of War as an equalizer and eliminating debts these Usher in a period of Peace typically accompanied by prosperity and internal stability however during this time A new challenge to the existing World Order arises often in the form of a rising power like China along with alliances and geopolitical shifts involving countries like Russia this Rising living standard and wealth cycle create a reluctance to conflict with the dominant power or revert to past hostilities this pattern can be observed in historical periods such as the Industrial Revolution and post-world War II era by recognizing these recurring themes we gain insights into the functioning of the economic machine and its relationship to historical trends now before we continue if you're enjoying this video so far let's give it a thumbs up feel free to share it with all of your family and friends and don't forget to subscribe and hit that notification Bell to be the first to see our updates alright let's dive right back into the video pursuing economic progress and improved living conditions often leads to a widening wealth Gap and increased debt levels as economic disparities grow it creates different opportunities for those who possess greater wealth enabling them to exert more influence and provide better support for future Generations consequently three recurring outcomes emerge from these circumstances firstly excessive debt burdens individuals and results in financial losses this means that even in situations where there is insufficient money debt continues to accumulate the question then arises how should this debt be settled choices are either to print more money to repay it or to repay it using physical currency however printing more money leads to a devaluation of the currency and often results in a decision to opt for inflationary conditions over a depression you cannot raise these standards by raising money and Credit in other words if you increase money then the value of money is going to go down this Choice has been repeatedly made throughout history as we witnessed in 2020 when there was a desire to produce money without limitations an example of such a scenario unfolded in the 1930s characterized by the emergence of both left-wing and right-wing populism these forms of populism were commonly called communism and fascism respectively however regardless of their specific labels both ideologies represented different manifestations of populism and were ultimately incompatible these confrontations led to a transformation of four democracies Germany Italy Spain and Japan into more authoritarian forms of government during the 1930s it is important to note that there were variations in the strength of these transformations in a new world order the dominant power initially holds significant advantages for instance during the mentioned period the United States possessed 80 percent of the world's currency backed by gold controlled half of the global economy and possessed formidable military strength however the disparities between the dominant power and the emerging competitors diminish over time as competition grows as this Gap Narrows obstacles and challenges arise Ray dalio discusses the inefficiencies of governments and the impact of War on the ground these factors prompt questions about how our daily lives may change soon and the Transformations we may witness in the coming years the relevance of the present moment and its significance as a guide to understanding historical patterns and informing our understanding of current events cannot be understated 1971 marked the beginning of an inflationary period that persisted throughout the 1970s we anticipate facing significantly higher levels of inflation and inefficiency in the coming years these challenges May materialize in the form of intensified supply chain issues if Capital restrictions are imposed it will limit the ability to transfer money outside of One's Own country whether the United States or another Nation alternatively there might be limitations on International money transfers we have been accustomed to a society where Capital products and services move freely creating a world characterized by equal opportunities and the flow of resources based on monetary exchanges however in a world without such freedoms resource allocation becomes influenced by the movement of money and the opportunities may not be equally distributed we must remain mindful of the potential for military action exemplified by the current situation in the Ukraine escalation is a possibility and it may take various forms including military or nuclear means over the next several months we will gain a deeper understanding of this unfolding situation additionally we will observe the effectiveness of punitive measures to exert influence sanctions currently a distinctively American strength since the United States is no longer the dominant military power that it was aimed to hinder or prevent a Russian Victory it remains to be seen how impactful these measures will be and how they will shape the actions of other nations furthermore we will witness how Nations align themselves historically we have seen the emergence of access and Allied Powers based on various factors and motivations this process is currently underway and in the coming months we will witness the extent of the pressure exerted by the United States on other nations to choose sides there are ongoing discussions about aligning with a particular faction and choices will have to be made consequently we will closely observe the formation of these teams and alliances over the next six months or even less as Clarity regarding these Dynamics unfolds to leverage historical patterns and navigate the dynamic World successfully there are specific actions that investors can take one such action is to employ a strategy of mixing uncorrelated Assets in their portfolio Ray dalio strongly advocates for diversification emphasizing the importance of having over 15 uncorrelated Investments to lower the risk to return ratio diversification is a key principle that dalio considers Evergreen as it enables investors to mitigate risk effectively the concept of diversification rests on the understanding that assets that are not connected do not move in the same direction either positively or negatively for example there is typically little correlation between the movements of gold and the S P 500 therefore a decline in the S P 500 does not necessarily impact gold spot prices Bridgewater's portfolios reflect this approach encompassing a wide range of assets Industries and currencies to ensure diversification Additionally dalio acknowledges the use of cryptocurrencies as a tool for diversification cryptocurrencies provide an alternative investment Avenue that may exhibit different patterns and behavior than traditional assets another important action is to sell fully priced equities for a profit dalio does not Advocate solely purchasing and holding stocks indefinitely instead he recommends selling overvalued stocks to realize gains and then reinvesting those proceeds strategically this approach involves rotating the portfolio to focus on undervalued stocks which have the potential to outperform their prospective Industries or the overall economy Ray dalio recommends holding on to the following top stocks Cisco Corporation Starbucks Corporation and Coca-Cola company yeah you heard it right even Coca-Cola makes the list Warren Buffett the sixth richest person in the world has held this stock for a long term since 1988 and has earned him millions in his portfolio Coca-Cola's been around since 1886 there's 1.8 billion 1.8 billion eight ounce servings of Coca-Cola products sold every day Coca-Cola is known for its reliable dividend payouts and long-term growth goals making it a valuable addition to any Investment Portfolio it has a low beta indicating its potential to weather economic storms being a long-term investor is Key exemplified by successful investors like Charlie Munger now a billionaire and Ray dalio who ranks among the top five highest paid individuals on Wall Street the correlation between volatility and time reveals the advantages of long-term investing Investments held for longer durations tend to experience less volatility than shorter term investments the longer you stay invested the greater your chances of surviving Market downturns Ray dalio stands out from other billionaires regarding his opinions on the stock market and the economy as the co-cio of the world's largest hedge fund he lets his actions speak louder than his words dalio emphasizes the importance of developing wisdom and improving investment capabilities by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and being aware of guiding beliefs because what you don't know is a lot and if and you can reduce your risk by a lot more than you could reduce your return by knowing how to diversify well these guidelines which he refers to as the recipe help navigate challenging economic conditions and contribute to achieving financial and personal objectives dalio highlights that this knowledge is not new the economy undergoes Cycles similar to other aspects of life by recognizing and understanding these Cycles we can better equip ourselves to cope with them like a doctor gaining repeated perspectives on a specific condition this perspective also applies to the current situation it is not merely theoretical in one of Ray dalio's tweets he mentioned that everyone has assets and liabilities and the keys to success lies in understanding one's flaws and effectively compensating for them as we conclude this video if you are determined to excel in the midst of this economic downturn it is crucial that you make it a must to follow Ray dalio's comprehensive guide on how to profitably hold assets we value your opinion so please share your thoughts in the comment section below and also don't hesitate to show your support by liking this 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