저자: Antonio/출연:Miguel,AlbertMillán · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 AI 버블 경고와 AI 기업 규제 논쟁을 다룸. 중국 저가 모델 경쟁과 AI IPO 유동성 이슈가 거론됨. 이란-미국 협상 기대에 따른 유가 변동과 정유 설비 한계도 논의. 비트코인은 중장기 강세 견해 유지. 대안으로 저성장이지만 현금창출력이 큰 필수소비재 기업(Deckers, General Mills 등)을 제시.
다듬은 글
Hi how are things? How are you? Welcome to this stock market advice column, a Wall Street madmen's program on our schedule, a classic that we do every week, Wednesday, Thursday, depending a bit on our schedule, but it has already become one of your favorite programs, because in the end all of you who are here are because you like the markets, you like the stock market and the truth is that we make a very dynamic program, especially the two colleagues I have.
Miguel, how are you? How are you? Well, Antonio, I'm a little less busy than you, as I've heard you've spent the afternoon between portfolio management and this. Hat trick, hat trick. Not at all, not at all. But look, yesterday I was telling him, yesterday a friend was telling him, "Dude, this phrase that sounds very typical of putting it on coffee sugar packets and things like that , find something you're passionate about and you'll never have to work a day in your life." Wow, I'm crazy, really, the whole thing about being able to work in finance, the stock market, the market, plus the other part that I like, which is the human contact, even if it's virtual, but I'm talking to people and subscribers every day and stuff, I love it.
So don't worry too much about this great show, because as those of you who are joining the Locos de Wall Street YouTube channel know, and there are more and more of you , we're already close to 93,000 followers and, well, the views are going up a lot, etc., etc., this advice column always has the same structure.
We're going to discuss a central topic, and then with Albert Millán, whom I haven't greeted yet—I'm a bad teacher—I'll greet him now. You'll be able to ask him questions about stock markets, sectors, and so on. You know, well, and for those who don't, I'll announce it, Albert Millán is the person responsible for the WS Financiar Reser service, our service, well, a guide for the stock market investor, which you already know you can subscribe to completely free to access content and for premium you have to sign up on the preferential waiting list .
Albert, how are you? How are you? How are you, Antonio? As I was sharing some comments here, busy, but not as busy as you. I have two direct ones, but you have three linked ones. So today we have a hat trick, which is what we like. In the end, we are privileged, as you said, so we can't complain about anything, really.
That's it, that's it. This is like when football players say, "Hey, we earn way less." Well, yes, we do envy the bank account , but Miguel, well, yes, Miguel, well, that's what we talked about, that's the boss, we talked about something else , but the football players who complain about training for two hours and such, nothing.
Well, let's honor what today's headline says. Uh, we need to talk about artificial intelligence. Michael Barry is truly a blessing since he opened his Sustac because, well, every day he has to, as I say, sell the donkey and every day he gives us news. And seeing, let's start with this main part which is the headline, the fear that an artificial intelligence bubble may be covering up something worse.
I don't know if we're talking about swindling, I don't know if we're talking about other issues. Tell us what you mean , what we mean by that headline, or what Michael Barry means. Yes, although I also have some other things prepared later, as you said, that I want to share. Furthermore, taking advantage of a platform, right?, which we have formed a partnership with that I think is very interesting, and I have some things to share that also tie in with one of the questions that have already been asked of us , so we will do a double feature today, first about AI and then sharing a couple of ideas that I think are interesting as an alternative to this.
We've had a few somewhat turbulent weeks regarding the guide because many headlines have come out , as we discussed this past weekend in the weekly summary, expressing fear that things could really get out of control, not only from a financial and bubble perspective, but also that the supervision or alignment that is supposed to apply to these agents and models might not be the case and that they could actually pose dangers, right?
There was even talk from some insiders who said there was a risk of humanity being wiped out. That's already good, a bit catastrophic, isn't it? But what is true is that, for example, of course, there's the problem that everyone can then have access to that, right? The fact that some geopolitical powers or rival entities do not have access to pioneering models could lead to problems such as, for example, the software that controls a dam, to name one, right?
Well, you hack it, it gets in, I mean, yes, there are real risks associated with this if there aren't clear restrictions and guidelines that are shared globally, it's not enough for just one person to adopt them, because it's a bit like the prisoner's dilemma , isn't it?, which we always talked about, well, we would have that same problem.
In fact, this is going to be a central theme at the summit we are having now at the United Nations, between China and the United States, because they are the two main powers at the global level, economically and also in terms of development. There's also a second interpretation of this, which is why is this coming out now, right?
If it was already known for so long, why has everyone agreed, right? It looks like Dario Modei, eh, Samalman, you know, Clud, well, Antropic, OpenI. And let's not forget that we also have two gigantic IPOs pending this year, right? That of Antropic and that of Open AI. Some may be delayed next year, but they want to take advantage of the liquidity window that exists now.
And given some data that they are starting to see, and Michael Barry shared, right?, of slowing growth, which is always a very bad sign for a company when you want premium valuations, by instilling this fear what they can achieve is that open source models are regulated , and you know that there are many models that are much cheaper, among them, for example, Kimi's always stands out, right?
The Chinese, above all, and they compete with them in a much, much, much cheaper way. So, of course, if you manage to instill the fear that this really needs to be controlled, that it needs to be practically, uh, quasi-regulated, right? Well then, you'd also eliminate a lot of this competition, and that would help.
So there are always fears also about the perverse incentives that may exist. And finally we also have the valuation, right?, of the giant bull markets, which seem to keep swelling and this helps to create wealth through assets. But then we have a consumer economy that is suffering much more. That's where I bring up today's ideas, and well, if this turns around, they could also provide an opportunity, but they portray a double reality in society right now, right?
Of those who have the perfect Cantillon active and we are invested, eh, it's going very well, and all those who are outside, who depend on a salary, and whose job may also be called into question with these new technologies, well, they are far behind. Albert, uh, I, obviously we have to prepare the program, we have to define a theme, although in the end you already know that these programs, those of you who are regulars, the central part, the core part is precisely answering your questions, but obviously we also cannot be oblivious to current events.
This afternoon we have suffered stock market crashes due to something that is not new, which is, uh, the return to I don't know how many times it has been repeated, possible rapprochements between the United States and Iran. Do we believe it when we see it now, or not? Or not? No. Uh, I mean, I think we won't have a resolution until the Mitter .
That would take a month and two weeks, right? Iran, I believe what it wants is a change of government. Right now on Polimarket there was a question, in fact, along these lines, right? This one from Ramón who was saying, "The betting odds are on the Democrats, right? Uh, a sector that benefits. We'll talk about the sector later, uh, but in any case, on Polymarket there's already talk that the Democrats are very likely to sweep the elections .
There's talk of 65%, yes? That they'll win both houses, uh, the House and the Senate, with 65%, which is the big surprise, right? And in that case, well, the most likely thing is that we'll then see how the impeachment of Trump unfolds and that things will get really complicated. So, I think the Iranians will reach an agreement because obviously the situation isn't comfortable for them either, but what they want first is a change of government, for the Democrats to come in, to demonstrate that there really is an economic consequence to what's being done and that it doesn't come without a price, right?
Well, to attack them, because what they need is for it not to happen to them again, right? If You are them, and you put yourself in their shoes. What you want is to guarantee they do n't do it to you again, right? So, for that, you need a veiled political and economic threat. So today we see that when oil was already at 97, WTI at 108, and suddenly that news comes out—which the Iranians are already denying—and now, the last time I saw it, it was at 95 and something, but they've already done the damage, right?
With the three drops in price at one point. So, well, isolate yourself a bit from the noise, follow the signal, and as always, our path, right? We're not being deterred, and we're doing very well, actually. I think it's going to get even better, but we can't complain. Yes, Alber is talking about the model portfolio.
Miguel, do you want to comment? No, yes, what happened was that I wanted to go back to some AI topics. This week, while reading the newsletter, I saw something here that seemed curious, which was related to the topic of... What Barry was saying, that there's increasing pressure from much cheaper Chinese models, like Deep, Ship, and Kimi, which threatens to compress prices precisely when the industry needs to justify investments of hundreds of billions.
What I'm wondering is, do you guys use, have you ever used a Chinese model? I've never used one. Uh, not me. Uh, I did for a while, I was into it, but I ended up installing one and using it. Oh, I'll say it. Cloud. Cloud. The what? That one with the claw. The Cloudbot, right? The one with the crab claw.
Yes, yes, I had that one. And in the end, the one that gave me the best results was Kimi. Uh, best results, ratio, price, uh, quality, okay? Uh, it's the one from this guy who was later hired by Peni, okay? And I did use that one. But look, this is obvious. It's the economy. It's cyclical, and things are cyclical.
This always happens when, in a sector, you see that those investing a lot of money, a lot of money, and there are people copying them—I'll use quotation marks here—and getting the same result, which is what they want, right? No, we're going to regulate it, man. Of course, it's screwed us over now that you've already made progress and all , so nobody else can get in.
We're going to regulate this, because this, well, the truth is, it's complicated, it's complicated. I'm increasingly in the paradigm that it's going to happen like it did with the internet, that we don't know who's really going to come out on top, and yes , it's clear, there's a clear winner, just like with the internet, which is humanity, or people, right?
I'm not going to go on about how it's going to end with humanity and all that, right? I think artificial intelligence is very good for humanity, but for the companies that exist now... I myself have some doubts. Well, very well. So, if you'd like, I'll also bring you these two ideas, okay? One that makes us think, because, of course, if you assume that this really isn't going to have a return, right?
And it could collapse, you have to think, "Okay, so what do we do, right? How do we position ourselves in the stock market because we already know that this has a huge impact on the entire AI narrative and all the tech companies in the indices and market positioning, right?" So, what I think is that there are opportunities in less glamorous companies doing everyday things, right?
and that generate a lot of cash and returns and that can be interesting. And not only that, but they also cover you in the other scenario because let's think about whether we're really heading towards a scenario of superabundance, right? Now imagine that AI truly transforms the economy completely, and as Elon Musk says, it doubles the economy in the next 10 years, making it practically unnecessary to work, right?
In many cases we have a high universal basic income. What would benefit from that? Consumption, experiences, right? Travel, leisure, and all these sectors would clearly benefit. So, I'm bringing you one that also ties in a bit with the webinar that Antonio was doing last week for the modernization course, which I think is interesting.
Well, I'm going to tell you about the Sensa Market project, which you already know is the platform we've recently partnered with on Wall Street. It's the one we use because it allows us to incorporate fundamental data, options data, institutional data, and everything else on the same platform, which I think is always quite interesting.
So, there's a company called Deckers Outdoor, I don't know if you two are familiar with it. [snort] Yes, this is the one that made me some enemies by saying the shoes were very ugly, right? We were talking about it, weren't we? Yes, exactly. My outfit is so old- fashioned, you know, like Julio Iglesias or better.
Well, it helps us a lot. Uh, what I like about the platform is that, look, it gives us, first, a model score and a summary, which isn't bad, with AI, right? Can you explain to us what happened? What are the main takeaways from the last few quarters? What should be taken into account? How has it evolved?
What is this column on the left, okay? Well, what analysts also expect from this, which always works well for me as a summary, is what we have here. Then I also have some charts set up here that I'm interested in, which are debt, shares outstanding, free cash flow, and PE, right? Some ratios that interest me are CAPEX, and profits.
We also see the growth, how it's accelerating, and the profits take into account that the fourth quarter is always better, right? You can imagine, well, they've changed things, now we're in what they call the first trimester, eh, that's why one of them is running late there, right? But you can imagine that Christmas is when you buy the most, right?
And the ratios. So, what I find interesting here is the profit and loss account, right? We have a company that was growing quite a bit, growing very strongly, which is what we have graphed here. Uh, if we remove a little, we eliminate some of the noise, we're going to put the annual better, you can see how this uh grows a lot.
In fact, the growth rate has slowed down considerably . We were coming from around 20, 23, 15, 18. If we have gone to single digits to nine and something, 10, then that is what the market punishes. Profit and operating results were in line. Don't think that it wasn't translated or that it was fake. Do you see the benefits here that also work very well?
It's the lowest rating it's ever been, let's say, or historically. Here we can see it, for example, with the PER ratio, right? You know it's not the best way to look at things, but anyway, this always used to be around 15 or 20 times and now it's at 10 times, right? And what interests me most about this action is what it can do with the money it generates, right?
That's one of the most interesting parts for me, which is to say, okay, this generates an operating cash flow of roughly, as we can see here, a billion, right? And we graphed it, too, so we could see it. A billion keeps growing, eh, a 1 2 13 eh keeps growing even if it's a little. And how much of that is capex?
Very little. We can see here that this only needs about 100 million capex to operate. So, you have a billion to spare to do whatever you want with it. And what are they doing? So, buy back shares, huh? No, then of course, you're left with a free cash flow of, I mean, this leaves you with about nine or ten times free cash flow still growing by 10% and generating free cash flow that you can dedicate to repurchases.
So, it's a sexy action, but probably not very much. It's not a high-growth stock either, is it? One that Esperanza was telling us about here, another example, right? It could be General Mills, the same case. You'll see. Here we have a company that from a price and cash flow point of view has now risen a little from lows, but is about 10 or 11 times, right?
11 times cash flow. Okay, it's true that it hasn't grown or has n't grown much in recent years because they excessively passed on inflation , let's say annually, in 2022. And what hurt them is that afterwards they had to cut back or the consumer couldn't absorb all of this. So, what can we expect? If they grow at 2-3%, they distribute it all to you in the form of dividends and buybacks.
So in the case of General Mix, it has a bit more debt and I don't like its product that much, right? Compared to others, such as even craft, it may be worse, but this normalized can generate about 3 billion in operating cash flow. It needs about 700 million in capex. Here we see it, 600, 500, 700 in some cases.
And then you have a part that goes to dividends paid, which would be one trillion, and the rest is being given to buybacks and repaying debt. So these are companies that aren't overly glamorous, that aren't anything to write home about, but that can provide you with some protection or something, let's say, a foundation if the economy really turns up.
Very good. Well, there you have it, I've shared the QR code with a special discount for all LWS Financial Research followers. Those of you who are members already know that you have your own particular one. Hey Miguel, I think that's 18 minutes of preamble, of warm-up and I see there are , wow, 12 selected questions.
We started shooting. Come on, let's go. I'm going to start with one that we'll also have a video of soon, because I'm also eager to hear Alberde's opinion, this one from Compludo. He says, "Could you update your Bitcoin outlook now that it seems the Christ winter is coming to an end?" Yes, I'm always bullish on Bitcoin across all timeframes, right?
Because it does have fluctuations, of course, but I think the value proposition remains intact, and that with each passing year it becomes even more intact, right? Because in the end, all the time that goes without denial of service, which demonstrates resilience, uncensorableness, etc., is very, very interesting.
And as you say, we were coming from a relatively bearish period for the price and especially also in terms of institutional flows at the ETF level and all that seems to have turned around. For me it's hard to understand why these cycles keep happening; it does n't make much sense when the halvings are already on much smaller amounts of Bitcoin, but oh well, they keep happening.
It's curious because it's not a cycle that responds to capital or other factors, but it seems more about feeling, but I also agree that it may have turned around and that when there is a self-fulfilling prophecy of also expecting a cycle and it comes true, well, people encourage it more, right? But I am bullish on all horizons with Bitcoin.
Look, Alber, here we go, I'm going to ask the first question, this one won't be repeated too often. He says, "Hey Alber, any updates on Arrow XL?" Yes, there are updates. They had their general meeting last week, uh, I mean friends or acquaintances, rather, those who were there . The truth is that I have very good feelings and today they presented a new presentation for shareholders, right?
For investors, it's also very bullish. The truth is that I really liked the part about the new acquisition, how they plan to monetize it, develop it, and so on. And they've also done a road show in London. So, well, it seems they have a lot of confidence in this extension, that there has already been a change in the Eopetrol Board and that we should have news about it soon.
So I think everything is going very well. Furthermore, with the price of oil as it is, you can imagine, right?, the amount of cash they are generating, which is in addition to the strong catalyst they have, which is the expansion. Well, let's see if next week we can finally talk about having had that famous [event/event].
List. I do n't know if it will be that fast, but let's hope so . Yes, yes, I hope so. Look, this is from Raúl, and I have to admit that it's been a while since Raúl asked this type of question, but I find it interesting. He says, "Hey, how about PayPal, Meli, or Comcast a year from now? Committing a year from now, huh?" Come on, then, let everyone get involved.
You start, Miguel, then Antonio, and then me. Well, I don't know, it's the price, I don't know, I really don't know what he's going to do, but for me, I mean, if I had to stay longer I'd say PayPal, well, it's because he doesn't have any debt, but well, the one I like the most is Meli, to be honest.
One year Concast. I also see Concast in a year and Medi in the long term, like Miguel, because I believe that when they do the spinoff, the immediate ratings will be higher with the NBCUniversal part. And that's going to go very well, isn't it? But in the long run, obviously, Meli's quality is far superior to the other two.
I'll give you a hint now that I know Edgar can't hear. All of you Sanhedrin members should ask him about Concas, and when he says he can no longer give his opinion, well, you know what to do. Yes, it's a fantastic idea because, as I know, as I know, he's not going to see it, that he's right now, I don't know if he's in London or something, uh, there's a clue for you .
That advice is worth its weight in gold, huh? Yes, that advice, I had actually thought about it, but I've been a little selfish, I was keeping it [laughs] to myself. Not me, so that someone else can ask, and someone else can take the reprimand. Yes, yes, yes. Look, Alber, you mentioned this a while ago and I also want to hear your opinion.
I don't know if you 've continued following her. You talked about electric Hawaii a while ago. How do you see it now? Holy [ __ ], they told this story, man, I loved it. I didn't know her. They told the story in Madrid. The subscriber will have to excuse me , but someone told me about it and it seemed like a good idea, well, not exactly a reversed idea, but one of those ideas where you say, "Damn, that makes sense." Yes, in Madrid, where we did a financial reset, I mean, just to clarify.
Okay, Antonio mentioned it here in No, several subscribers mentioned it to me, like, "Hey, no, you didn't know her, did you? I don't know if it was Luis Barandi, I just don't want to say a name that isn't mine." Well, it's interesting because you know he still has outstanding payments for the contingents, right?
From the Mawi fires and has continued to fall. So what's the problem? They have a maximum ROE they can achieve by law, but they are not achieving it. So, it's a company that has had to dilute its assets for the first payment. The next ones will most likely be done with debt and by normalizing results.
Uh, I'm not that bullish just because they're not achieving the profitability maximization targets that the government allows them to . So, if I see that turn around , then it could become interesting, but if not, I'm just waiting for them to make the payments and when they have everything sorted out, then it could be interesting.
The problem is that with dilution, what was previously $0 might now be worth $ 20 for the UPS. It was trading at nine nine and something. It might be interesting, but you have to wait two and a half years, right? So IRR and waiting don't seem so interesting to you, given all the risks involved. So I have it on my watchlist for now.
Look, Albert, the one we were talking about regarding Bigman, which we discussed last week, says, "In this new era of rising interest rates, how do banks and insurers see things?" Well, there's always a saying that banks are nothing but rates, isn't there? Uh, I mean, if interest rates are high, especially here in Europe, right?
Where what you pay later for deposits isn't as much competition and such, it's lower, they're very interesting, but in general, it works for them worldwide. So, as long as it's not with a major recession, which would then affect credit and NPLs, but if we're like we are now, right? And as far as inflation and such are concerned, it's a good environment, to be honest.
You can buy bank or you can also buy the Ibex, which will continue to go to an all-time high, or Georgia or Georgia Capital. Well, that's a little bit better, huh? Look at this one from Mariano Solis, well, he's asked quite a few different questions. What do you think of Hello Fresh by Chemical and LVMH?
I do n't know if you want to comment on any of the four. Fres Miguel, yes, well, Mariano, that's making the most of the trip, as they say in my land [laughs], crazy. Well, look, about GF I'll tell you that the short inter is getting higher and higher , so [laughs] I don't know if it's a good sign or not.
Today he asked me, " Can I tell you?" No, Miguel. Well, yes, look at the options. Yeah, he told me, "Hey, Antonio, check out the Hello Fresh options, man, the interest rate is really high and all, the volatility. The thing is, being in Germany, it's not so easy to look into it. Platforms like Sensa Market or Barchar don't give it to you, man.
Well, I was looking into that. I've heard several times that they might give the CEO more leeway. Like I said last time here with Albert, the results weren't the best in the world, they're still slowing down and all that, but I don't think they were that bad. Maybe the second presentation they give will be awful and it'll keep falling, but well, I've really taken a big hit in it, today -1, you know?
No, less. Well, if it closed -1, I didn't see it that way, but it's hit hard, I mean, it's fallen, it's had a big drop . That's what I'm saying, it seems like the CEO isn't -1, no, Antonio, minus 6 I mean, I don't think it's fallen that much. Well, I'm seeing it on Interactive Brokers. Well, I don't know, I don't know.
If you want to comment on any, Albert. Uh, no, I don't follow Baidu. Yes, but the part about, what's it called? The petrochemicals part, right? Like Lip and such, we were talking about it, I don't find it that interesting because I don't think it's going to be worth it , I like others better, right?
But it's the most interesting of the three because I do n't like Luis Witon's either. I think that, uh, during the growth of the good part of the economic cycle, uh, it's done well, but right now with the consumer suffering, well, that more aspirational part is going to suffer a bit more. Uh, look, Albert, could you update the situation with Rulus?
Are there any buys on the table? No, it seems, I mean, in the end, you think that time is on our side, right? In several ways. The first is with the price of copper and gold, which are performing well, and then, as you know, the Many of the surrounding assets are reaching the end of their mining operations, right?
So, if they don't want to have to close down with the costs that entails, the infrastructure is being used, and so on, the most logical thing is to acquire the new assets now. So, I think it's close, but it's been close for quite some time now, right? It's like that meme of the truck arriving with Golar , right?
But there isn't an update as such, other than that, which helps us with the timing. Miguel, excuse me, look, for those who are subscribers to Financiar Reser, I do n't know if the origin of Rome is one, excuse me. Yesterday we had the first live stream from a new addition to Financiar Reser, Javier Chico, Sergeant Hawi, you know he's a commodities professor and an investor who has 100% of his portfolio—well, 99% is in Georgia Capital and the rest is in mining companies.
And yesterday he gave a masterclass because he brought us a live stream for the Goal's Reser subscribers . First, that company analyzed us, they analyzed the premium subscribers, and then he spent half an hour answering questions like a machine gun, I don't know, and they were asking him about Junior in Australia.
I mean, "It's impossible for him to know that, right?" Yes, yes, this is the asset that I don't know what about." In Regulus's case, he mentioned it, and the interviewer specifically asked him if he thought that if the agreement continued to be postponed, as Albert said, he might need capital and a capital increase could be necessary.
And he commented, well , he said, "Look, I don't have a crystal ball, but normally in these situations, if what you want is capital for, let's say, the interim period until the agreement comes to fruition while you're negotiating, you can ask for a bridge loan or some other non-dilutive equity stake from the bank that's providing it, etc., etc." Well, the truth is that he was commenting on this part and he gave his opinion about Regulus .
I liked it, I liked the approach he took and so on. I don't know if you agree with that, seeing that it could be a problem if the agreement is delayed because they could use up the funds they have. It was also mentioned that sometimes a final reward is given to those who have been loyal, right? And they are given the opportunity to participate in this final placement and such, which is not usually very nice, but a final, let's say, little treat, right?
That's why . But the logical thing, if they want to respect the shareholder, would be what you say. Was Javi bullish on Rebus or not? A lot. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Brilliant. Well, that's a good sign because it really is very good. Javi has landed on his feet at Financiar Risé. The truth is that people are absolutely delighted with him.
Yes, absolutely. The post had tons and tons of likes and stuff, so yeah, yeah, great. Hey, check this one out by Miguel Méndez. Albert, what do you think of Booking? Well, I do n't really follow her that much, to be honest. [clears throat] I get the feeling that when we're in Q&edrín you ask questions for Ver and when you're in the doctor's office you ask questions for Edgar.
Miguel, Edgar does give you his opinion, huh? He knows the sector and all that . She has said it many times. There is a Sanhedrin, Miguel, if you want to see it, which Edgar analyzes in detail, I remember the miniature. Yes, yes. Come on, I'm just kidding, okay? Ask whatever you want, and if we know, great, and if not, oh well.
Look, Alber, you might like this one too , it says, "In a Black Trumpist election, what sectoral approach do you think might be more defensive in the short term in the face of a foreseeable market correction?" Alber, I've been wanting to ask you, let's see, are the Mirtel cameras, both with two cameras, considered lost?
That effectively means he would have two years left in his term, but he would be unable to do practically anything; his hands would be tied. However, the Impermet could end up triggering an early election. or in the United States. I've never seen that in the United States. I do n't know that in detail, but what I can tell you is that there was a lot of pressure, even internally, because in the end, you have to put yourself in their shoes, right?
You know that the parties there aren't like here with a single vote and here we'd manage with one deputy per party, right? Because everyone votes as a bloc, it's a bloc vote, it's just to fill the numbers, that's all. But there, each state has very different dynamics, different interests, then there are the senators and so on, right?
So, from a Republican point of view , there are many interests, obviously in maintaining their influence in the areas where they have it, and they are even shifting policies to accommodate this, such as the data centers, the moratoriums in Texas, and everything else. So, for those who are Trump's replacements or potential replacements for the 2028 elections, there are basically two candidates being discussed, Jidy Bans and Marco Rubio, right?
mainly Vice President J, but Marco Rubio also bets there. Their interest would be precisely to also promote this change or precipitate it, wouldn't it? To position yourself towards them, because of course, if you go hand in hand with someone who is down on their luck , right?, who is doomed, well, that tarnishes your future prospects a bit.
So, I would have to look at whether this could be an early election or not, but certainly an institutional blockage, yes. Well, and the question from Claro, and the sectors to see. Ah, yes, from the sectors. Exactly what we were talking about. Look, what I would think is, hey, in a case where you know that the stock markets are pretty strong now, from a narrative point of view too, right?
They are trying to promote it. We saw it with Trump when he signed the Moot Court in Versailles, the first thing he said was " stocks up, oil down," right? In other words, there is an obsession with putting markets at the center because it is known that a large part of the wealth of the average American citizen depends on it.
So I wouldn't expect a stock market crash because I think the system is designed so that that ca n't happen. What's different is a correction and that future returns are significantly clouded, right? Because having returns of zero, one, or two percent annually for a decade can happen; it won't ruin your wealth, but it certainly greatly affects your results.
So, what I would look at are those sectors that no longer need feeling to do well. Those we have discussed before, for example, defensive consumption, have already suffered the consequences . So, uh, sure, what could happen? That it goes from 10 times free cash flow to five times free cash flow. Yes, it could happen, but of course, when you 're buying back shares so aggressively and giving dividends that are now seven percent, would become 15 or 16 percent, you've already made your return without needing the market to agree with you.
It doesn't matter to you anymore because you've already had the multiple compression first. So, I would look into those types of assets because you no longer care what the neighbor thinks. On the other hand, if you have something that's performing 30 times better, you can continue doing well and it drops to 20 times better, which wouldn't be a big deal, but you've already suffered an extra 33% drop.
Upon seeing, sorry, sorry, no, comment, you comment, right? I was going to ask you, I mean, you've commented on the topic of sectors and so on, uh, kind of philosophy. In fact, he shared a chart that Antonio also shared in the market summary, showing which philosophy gave the best return in the face of possible stagflation, and the value came out first.
Yes. Let's see, I actually have it here. Let's see if we can stop the market summary. Capture it, eh, I won't have it here on hand. What I did was take a screenshot of precisely your comment from Financier's Discord server, which was very good. It was a graphic, see if you have it to project because I think it will interest people and if not I'll look for it myself.
Look, uh, look, Albert, I can send it to you, it's just that I don't know if it works through WhatsApp, but look, wait, there's the photo. Look, I'll share it now. Yes, I have it here now. Share my number, Anton. No, man, no. Well, let's see, some admirer might also write to you with kind words, Miguel.
That's what I was going to say. Admirer bar admirer. Okay, give me 30 seconds, I'm ready . Okay, in any case, we'll discuss it now, but it's a chart that talked about whether we enter a stagflation scenario, that is, if we think we're going to a regime of somewhat higher inflation and low growth, there are sectors or we can historically rely on sectors that have done well, right?
So, in the 1970s, for example, we have here the annual performance, right?, of things that did well and others that didn't do so well. So, we can see below by sectors that we have, technology, utilities, consumer, that refers more to discretionary that did badly. In fact, it's not a negative return or anything serious, it's what they were saying about it having to be 50%, right?
A negative 2% annualized rate . Those who did well because they were causing inflation, energy, industrial banks, perfect. But then if we look at types of investment, we see that value investing does it best. Because? Because what was already cheap, continues to generate cash, it doesn't really care, it continues to generate cash, it benefits a little from this inflation and how it passes it on, and it no longer depends on market sentiment in terms of multiples and valuations.
And what made it worse, which was the growth, makes perfect sense too, doesn't it? Because it is the most likely to be affected by these sentiment changes and multiple downgrades or compression. So, well, I always find it very interesting to study history, because although we do n't have an exact repetition, we often have similar scenarios, and learning from what has happened before, apart from intellectual curiosity, can help us position ourselves now.
So, here's a really good recipe if we're really going to go down that road. Look, it's a real luxury to have the followers we do . Hey Raúl, he gives us the answer, precisely the raincoat, no, new elections would not be called. If the peace agreement succeeds with two-thirds of the Senate, the vice president would occupy the presidency until the end of the term, which is more or less what Alber has said .
Uh, the vice president, who would be Jidy Bans, would pass, right? Or Marcos Rubio. Jid. And then if the vice presidency becomes vacant there is also an order of succession: Speaker, House, Representatives, etc. Elections can never be brought forward in the United States . I had never seen an early election before.
Great to know. Thank you, Raúl. Yes, great. Alquite, a real treat for fans. You forgot to like it, huh? Come on, I'm going to give the Sand Warming one now, okay? Please like this post, we have over 220 members, so the channel can reach more people . upon seeing which book was in that photo. The truth is that we were talking about it and I could n't find it.
I mean, I took it exactly as it was from an article, so no. Ah, well, I have it here on screen, it's the chart from Bank of America, uh, so look here, Manu Rujano, we send him our regards. He says, "Have you already put up the guide's graphic?" It's very good. I'm a big fan , Manu, your sport, your favorite sport is messing with me, huh?
[laughs] You see, that's because I shared a graph and I didn't understand it, and so Balw contributes a lot. He says, "Look, uh, seeing that López López found it curious that no one was asking, he says, 'SE Energy, what do you think?' With the issue of rejecting contracts and all that. It's a very interesting idea that Hugo actually presented on the channel.
Hugo Navarro also talked about it, as you know, on the podcast, and we already knew about it from Mr. Camicace, who follows it very closely. The truth is, he 's also an expert in the whole offshore side. So, for those who don't know what it's about, it's an offshore company, but not traditional offshore.
They have what are known as tender barges, which are used for development campaigns, but not drilling. That is, for SEO, if you already have an area drilled or something, then for development, and they are ships similar to Jacaps, they are for shallow waters, and what's useful is that they are simpler, They're usually cheaper to operate, and their rates are usually in line with those of the jack-ups.
So, they're very interesting. In any case, they had a dominant position in this market; it's practically a duopoly, and in their Asian descent, they also have a very significant position. They were waiting to renew two contracts, and the market was a bit impatient because they had been delayed. They said it was because of the Midast issue , but the fact is, they lost those contracts.
It was a bit of a surprise to lose them, but I also think it's not as negative as the market has made it out to be. It's fallen 15-16%, maybe a bit more these days. It makes sense because, in the end, they have very few assets. Of course, I think they have seven, and losing two of them is very significant and can leave you with two uncontracted vessels that cost you money and don't bring in any revenue, but it was a very bad contract.
I mean, Jacobs' rides before this trough or this dip in the offshore cycle were at 120,000 to 130,000, and this has been signed with premium jack-ups, meaning good boats at $10,000 a day for 5 years. So, signing that kind of deal is what we call a quick fix , but it leaves you hungry for the long haul, right?
They're not very good contracts. It ties you down for 5 years, and you can't really take advantage if the cycle turns around. So, I think that what seems like a negative at first glance could also be an opportunity if we really believe that in 17 or 18 months the cycle will normalize and we'll go back to above $100,000 a day.
Speaking of which, there was talk of a merger with Ventura, right? Something like that has come up, has n't it? Yes, that had already been approved in principle. The thing is, it has a condition: that they also have a certain number of boats under contract, etc. So, if at the time of closing they don't have them under contract, it could be jeopardized, but not for me, because both are in our best interest.
Companies, really. Look at this one from María José Román. Hi, Albert. Can you update Mau? Yes, this one is truly one of the most surprising in terms of oil, is n't it? Because if you look at it, it's a company that at the beginning of the conflict went almost to €11, or €11, excuse me, €11 and change, and now it's at €8, right?
It's true that it has distributed between half a cent and 50 cents in dividends, so it would be € 850, €860, but even so, it's still very far from what it reached in March after practically six months of high prices. In this time, what has the company done? Well, operationally, it's executing well, it's growing its production operations organically in all jurisdictions.
Colombia is doing well, Venezuela too, uh, I mean, they are executing everything they had said and it has made an acquisition in Colombia, which is part of Gran Tierra's assets, a valuation that is quite attractive and also if you look a little closer, uh The financial structure they're using, practically keeping only the debt, means it's very, very cheap for them, and it will have around 80,000 to 1,000 barrels of production if that goes ahead.
So, Maurel's market cap right now is 1.6 billion euros. And for example, wait, let me show you this. SEC, okay? And a company, Ipco, right? It's true that it's much better managed, but it's going to produce less than Maurel, around 65,000 barrels, and right now it has a market capitalization of 2.5 billion.
So, you see there's a certain divergence in a company that's also growing and has exposure to jurisdictions with higher net bags , right? Because they sell many of them at brand and at attractive costs. So, for me, it's a surprise that it's doing so badly, but I also understand that the market right now doesn't value a company that doesn't have an aggressive return program.
to the shareholder and focus on organic development, because what they think is, "Okay, this year you're going to burn through everything on Capex, huh, you're practically not going to generate extra cash and if next year prices are low again or this corrects itself, well, you've missed the good year without me receiving practically anything, right?" So, I think that's kind of the philosophy behind it.
Miguel, before we move on to the next thing, let's let Albert drink some water, I can see him drinking there. And look, as I was saying, there has been a new development, which was the addition of Javi Chico to Financia Racer. There have been many in Financia Racer, there are many more. Here you're seeing one in particular: we've implemented a bot that we've been working on for months, which uses artificial intelligence to summarize everything that's happening within the Financier Research Discord server, okay?
So that you don't end up with absolutely nothing, okay? Enter directly. Well, here you have it, according to the analyst, what's happening in the model portfolio. The most important thing is that you can search the entire Discord server to see what's happened in the last three days by sector. Well, the truth is that it's absolutely amazing, okay?
We thank the people who collaborated on it. And well, hey, remember, I'm going to show you the screen as a user would see it, oops, sorry, a free user, okay? Because you can also subscribe completely free and enjoy things like the weekly summary that it does when you see an article every Sunday, which you know I always say at 9:30 my little article, which I receive in the email, my coffee, when I see this week, what do we have in the summary?
What are you working on? Here's the one from last week and you're working on this one. It's muted. Albert, sorry I was on mute, I mean it's pretty much finalized now, obviously being at the end of the week, so that's logical, right? And look, we have the Greenland agreement first, right? That's going to be important too, from the point of view of how the blocs are being reconfigured, especially with the Russian incursions we're seeing, right?
in NATO territory, as it may be relevant. Secondly, Texas needs to start putting limits on the data center boom, because as we said, it's a political change that can also affect this AI narrative, right? If it is limited to the growth and struggle of one and the other. Then there's one that Manu Rujano will really like, and that's Toys Saras, a chain that many of us will remember, right?, from years ago in our childhood, which closed and is now starting to revive, but a milestone has already been reached: more toys are being sold in adult homes than in family homes, right?
As you know, collecting and all this merchandising, cards, etc., is very, very popular among adults, and there are many companies that also dedicate themselves to it. You know we always try to make everything actionable, right? And here we have the Hasbro part, the Game Workshop part, right? Well, everyone benefits from these kinds of trends.
Then we talked about Mus, right?, which I think is also the news of the week with Meta, the new AI agent that has been released, which I think has left no one indifferent. And finally, as always, and because you ask us not to lose the thread, which you consider valid, we are following up on the latest news from Iran and oil.
So those five news items and then the portfolio summary. Clear. [snort] Well, there's the QR code, subscribe and you'll see all this that you 're seeing right now on the screen. We also have content for those of you who aren't yet premium subscribers to try out Riser financials. Come on, Miguel, let's continue.
There are more questions. Well, look, Manu Ruja isn't going to like it because of the Toisará issue and also because of the A in Meta issue, which he's going to find funny to read. Uh, he likes the logo, or what does he like, Miguel, [laughs] the tamagochi that they've released for this mus game. No, maybe he didn't like the other logos or I don't know.
[laughs] Look, Raúl says, "By the way, the Daor thing seems like a joke, Alber. Approximately how much would Free Castlo grow in 2027 compared to the current size if the expansion goes well?" Look, the problem is that it wo n't be visible in the box, and then you're like, "Oh, I know it came out here." I'm saying the problem is that you're practically not going to see it in free cash next year, right?
And you'll think, damn, what a joke , right? You know it's a company that's expanding, and the problem is that it has a working capital cycle that doesn't benefit in the short term. And now I understand what I mean by this, right? When it stabilizes it generates a lot of cash, but on ramp it generates very little cash because, of course, a new miner arrives, right?
Or imagine, you produce 10 tons and you want to increase that to 50. What do you have to do? Initially, buying an extra 40 tons for refining or processing that you pay for in advance and sell in 30 days, for example, or in 60 days, no, it depends on the cycle they have in these new jurisdictions, but let's say 30 days.
During those 30 days you buy those tons and then from the month onwards it no longer consumes any more cash because what comes in is what goes out, to put it simply, but during those first 30 days you have consumed cash. So, if next year you have a strong expansion in Senegal and especially in Ecuador, you're going to be in many of these cycles where you have to stock up first and sell later.
So, uh, at first it hits you hard in working capital, but then it normalizes and happens much more often, right? So, you'll notice it in revenue, but still in cash, right?, until things normalize. So, I think it's a very cheap company, if they execute the expansion well, and today they just did an update saying that everything is going well, everything is looking good, but it has that trap that makes it harder to read the financial statements because in the short term it's true that it's going to consume cash to provision for this new material.
Well, there are still a lot of questions left, so if any go unanswered, as we always say, leave them in the comments, and Alberla will answer them all. With your permission, Alber, I'm going to answer this because it surprised me. He even asks, is there any reason for the drop in Basic Fit's sales this past month?
Because I'm going to tell you the inside story. In fact, uh, I was talking, well, I was talking to someone privately and they were telling me that the openings in Spain were going great and that, well, it was going really well, the price didn't move and it just fell by 6% and the truth is there's no reason for it and in fact when I see what Dacolo was saying about monetizing Basic Fit it's similar, I mean, it has a very steep ramp until it starts generating cash flow, right?
Well, they were telling me that, that there were openings in Spain that before starting to operate, that is, before even opening, were already in positive Freica Flow, that is, that they had entered, perhaps with a founder's price, with more than 1700 members on day zero. I mean, that's absolutely outrageous for an opening .
And it's true that I always like to have, well, I always have a strong discipline regarding price, and it's true that perhaps I like to buy it a little lower, but I don't know, the execution is so good. I think they're doing it in Spain too. I think they have the capacity, with the franchise issue in Germany, to also do a good expansion, and that operationally they are very, very good.
And looking at the competition, which I don't know if you 've seen, but the gyms here in Spain, Vivayin has bought a very large chain, I mean, Sinnergin, I think it's the one they're buying, I get confused by so many similar names, but they're doing it with Eman, spending more than 2 million per gym, I mean, it's crazy.
So, I may have broken my discipline a little on the price there, but I have made another small purchase. There's been some bad news for the stock price, and I've told you about it, Miguel. What I've taken off . It's okay , lots of people are coming in. Man, you don't need it anymore, Antonio. You and I don't need anything anymore, nothing.
People have come in, Antonio. And like Belix who fell into the cauldron, I can no longer get any stronger. [laughs] Look, Alber, I don't know if you commented on this one, I think Guille Roberto commented on it. What do you think of Circel? I think I heard you recently that it had been an error of omission in my main position.
Hey, Guille is going to comment on Circel. You all really like it when Guille appears on the channel to talk about dif and stuff, and I think he said hello earlier, huh? And we're going to do something from Cirkel too. Yes, yes, don't worry. Yes, I leave it to him because the truth is that where there's a boss, as they say, the sailor doesn't command; it's not the main one in Peter Cill's portfolio .
Damn, I honestly didn't know that. Hey Albert, I don't know if this one follows. It says, "Teleperformas la sigue, precio beneficia 9 con3 comme, do you see it as a good option for the future? Does it have much further upside potential?" We've talked about it many times and I do n't find it interesting at all, do you?
I disagree somewhat here. Let's watch it if you want. Wait, I'll also be showing some things from Selensa Market and we'll see a few things. This is the typical action that is ultimately mortally wounded by the narrative, especially regarding the terminal value of artificial intelligence. And well, the truth is that this is the typical action, as I say, that polarizes, polarizes FET, okay?
Hey, I'll add it. Albert, who polarizes FWIT. Yes, look, um, what's the problem I see with Teleperformance, right? And now we'll see it here. And it's bounced back a bit, actually, since we got it, but anyway , it's what you were saying here, right? In the end, if you look at it by ratios or let's look at the valuation, right?
We can see it later, but no, look, here, wait, we have it directly in the ratings. That's it . Okay, like you said, okay? Let's assume that the benefits really hold and you have it at nine times the benefits. Well, in terms of free casash flow it's a little less. So, at first glance it doesn't seem expensive, what you're saying is very good, eh, perfect, it's not expensive.
Let's see what might happen with this company, because as Antonio says, when you do a valuation model for this, uh, let's suppose they dedicate all the cash to returning it to the shareholder, right? What you would need, let's say, is to estimate the cash they're going to have, uh, let's assume, as I say, that it's all free cash flow to equity, that it's for you, discount it now by a rate, I don't care, 10, 12% and then estimate a terminal value, which means, hey, after this period that I'm modeling, for example, of 5 years or whatever you want, right?
In 5 years, what will happen to this company? What can I expect from, let's say, the future? And that's the problem you have, because it's impossible for you to know, because AI can disrupt the business so much that it might be worth zero, or it might not. If there were confidence, insiders would be buying back more aggressively.
The guidance they gave wasn't what it is , because if you look at it, it's a company that had been growing with acquisitions and everything, this is a leap, in quotes, fake, but not anymore. No. So, if we look at it quarterly, we can see it even more clearly , right? So saying this doesn't lead to any growth anymore.
So, it's true that it's a cash cow, so to speak, that it's not a company that's going to collapse tomorrow, but as we say, you can't be certain about its terminal value. So, what that does is make you depend on them paying you back, let's say, all your money in the short term, and that's to have a more or less decent return.
You would need him to return the entire box for 6 years just to break even if the terminal value were zero. So, that's why we don't like it. We have mentioned to you before that the problem you have is precisely that of terminal value. What surprises me today is the drop it's experiencing; I haven't had time to look into anything yet, Oscar Health, which is a company that's also been mentioned in R.
I don't know if the healthcare sector is declining, but it surprises me that without any news, it's been falling by more than 6%. I don't know, I don't really follow it, Antonio. I, Mr. Timbis, and some others discuss it, and we have some trading operations with options in Octs. Look, Antonio, I think you'll like this too.
He says, "If you had to choose between Berside and Constellation Software to buy, keep, and forget, which would you choose? I'd choose Constellation Software, and you, Albert?" I, Berkshire. Me too. I see it without a doubt, and I'll explain why, because, of course, the problem with Constellation Software is that your business model is to buy software, right?
Integrate it, that is , the micro, let's say, companies or microservices, integrate it and start operating it. So, you're also exposed to disruption in this business model . So, if you have to buy, keep and forget, I do n't know if you can, whereas Bergate has complete flexibility because you're going to need insurance, right?, which is the operational part.
And then if I want to buy software, I buy software, and if I want to buy something else that's popular, like Coca-Cola, I buy Coca-Cola, and if I want to buy something else later, well, I buy something else, right? So what does n't anchor me to a single business model. So, that's the simple fact. I think Constitution Software can do better in terms of valuation and performance, but as far as forgetting about it and all that, well, I prefer something that isn't tied to a single business niche that I don't know how it's going to go in the future.
I don't know if you saw the images the other day that when Warren Buffett Howway retired and definitively left the presidency , they say, "Well, his son, who is a philanthropist and all, is going to replace him as president." Damn, dude. He was another old gentleman, much older. Grandfather, grandfather, grandfather.
I say, "Where is this man going at 70-something years old?" But either the images I saw, I mean, he seems older than his father. I don't know if it was an idealized Warren Buff , who didn't seem that old to me. The son gave me the stigma of being even older than the father. [laughs] Of course, the son is already retired, isn't he?
The son is 71 and retired. The son who, seeing a little, has [laughs] never. That son has never worked. It says he's a philanthropist, president of the Buffet Foundation, I don't know what. We've become obsessed with water. I got a video, but it was of a guy whose son was like a guy who was riding a tractor or something like that.
Could be. Ah, yes. Let's see, look, I'll project it for you to see if it's this Antonio because that would be great. Seriously, seriously. I mean, man, he's an old man. Is this the one in the middle or what, [laughs] yes, I think so. Yes, yes, yes. [laughs] It looks even more like it. That's what I'm telling you.
I mean, I saw it. I mean, if the son is also ready to retire. [laughs] Uh, let's see, look, uh, this one from Pablo Millán says, "Which chain business model do you like more? The domino-style ASL or the proprietary one like Texas Roadhouse? What do you think about not raising prices and sacrificing short-term margin as a capital allocation?" Man, I'm going to say the ' aset light' style 100 times, right?
Because it's true that you don't have such a hard, fixed opinion, right? The same thing happens in hotels, doesn't it? And having the building yourself gives you land, in the end you have the real estate and all that, right? But the management model, or in this case the SEL, allows you to scale in a much, much easier way.
Hey, your balance sheet is also much cleaner in terms of debt, easier to study and all, and as I say, the main advantage is scalability. That's why the multiples are much higher. So if I have a choice, I prefer set light. I would say asset light for the stock market, but if you are a small owner of something, much better with owner.
To invest here. Yes, yes, to invest more. Yes. And the idea of not raising prices and sacrificing margins, that was explained quite well by the emeritus professor with Amazon and Costco in this policy of capital evolution for shareholders to create loyalty. Nickesle explained that quite well, didn't he, Alber?
The shared fiscal economy. It's very interesting. Yes, the truth is that when you have a win-win-win business model , right? In which everyone— customers, company, suppliers, and everyone else— wins, well, you've already accomplished a lot . Look, Alberta, I think you 've mentioned this quite a bit too.
Uh, New Holding is expanding into more than 35 countries. What did you think of this new bank? Very interesting, indeed. It's one of the main competitors, in fact, Meli de Meli, right?, in this vertical, uh, because it's a bank that's very, very good, uh, like the case of Revolut we've also seen here, right?
Yes, they're digital natives, but I mean, being digital natives in a different way, and on top of that, they have an advantage there compared to here, which is that the competition is much lower and there's a large part of the population that needs to be banked, etc., it's much more virgin territory and has greater growth potential, right?
So, I like it a lot. Miguel, today there will definitely be unanswered questions, impossible. In other words, as many as you want, just write them down and we'll answer everything tomorrow. Look at this one from Repó: "What's your opinion on Fico? A monopoly with 25 times profit and growing at a good pace." Alber, I didn't, but I was actually reading Noeli, who had just lost a bit of this monopoly because they decided.
It's true that about the, you know that you also have here the this is the credit score, right?, that they have, uh, so the problem is that they had decided to raise the prices like 300 times, right? One for 300 and such. It's true that it was a very small part of the process, maybe 0.3% in costs, right?
You go through the whole process and you say, "Okay, it's nothing." But of course, in the end you think, well, when you raise the price of things so much, people even look for other ways, something they no longer need, right? With technology now. Then I read that I was losing a lot of defensive space due to disastrous management.
Let's go with the last one, Miguel, okay ? Okay, I'm going to [clear my throat] choose the last one carefully. Well, I don't think you know this one from Álvaro Rosado , do you know PSMT? It 's basically Costco in Central America, Chile and Colombia. Okay, let's stick with one of the refinery ones, it's good because it's dealing with a lot of diesel, oil and such, and Albert can add value there.
Uh, Pablo's just, yes, just finished, right? Okay. Yes. What do you think about the problem of the refinery being at capacity? Could the crisis spread to refined products, causing oil prices to stabilize or decrease? Yes, in fact there is a very big problem right now and that is that after the summer season, the driving season, right?, when the refineries are working at full capacity to have aviation fuel, diesel and gasoline, they enter a maintenance period, logically, right?
After being at full speed, it now enters a maintenance period. The problem is that they're not doing it now. Because? Because of course, you have two problems. The first thing is that the spreads, let's say, what they earn is extremely high. So, you have a perverse incentive to continue operating. And the second thing is that inventories are so low that you also have pressure, even political pressure, to continue operating.
So, in the long run, that 's obviously very negative because it can cause many more reliability problems and everything in the long term. In the event that they can't go any further, if one breaks down, has to stop, or does the "tarzoso" (a slang term for a type of machine), as you say, there would be a problem with refiners, which there already is.
In fact, we're at record lows in diesel, you'll have seen it, especially since a bar has even been raised on American BSL exports because of this, and of course, refineries would stop consuming some oil because of it. What is the key here, or the variable they are taking into account? China has a lot of refining capacity, okay?
So, if they reach an agreement or if this becomes very difficult, they could export a large part of it and also give another boost to the crude oil market, which is what happened at the beginning of this month with the problem that, because tanker freight and oil itself are so expensive, the crude oil when it arrived there was $140, so their margins were eaten up a lot and it wasn't worth it for them.
But if an agreement is reached on this side or there, then it could cover the Chinese side, but if not, it's a real problem. Very good. Well guys, if you agree, let's leave it here. Thank you all very much. As you know, if your questions haven't been answered, leave them in the comments. And as always, thank you for being here, thank you for liking, thank you for subscribing, and for generating hype.
We look forward to seeing you on Saturday for the market summary, and on Sunday for Sanhedrin. Next week there's a show, there's a billboard. I think we'll have a video every day next week, so with that said, I'm leaving the YouTube channel fully loaded with lots of new content, and as always, have a great Thursday, a great Friday, and I'll see you Saturday for the next market summary. Goodbye, a hug. Ciao
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