저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 현재 시장이 버블 말기이며 나스닥 30% 하락 전까지 조정이 끝나지 않는다고 본다. 그랜섬의 버블 경고 논리 - 2000년 닷컴 버블과 2008년 주택버블, 2020년 코로나 사이클을 비교하며 현재를 버블 국면으로 봄 - 현재 시장은 '버블은 아직 터지지 않았다(nothing is over)'는 입장 붕괴 순서에 대한 주장 - 1차: 페니스톡(동전주) 붕괴. 2020년 3월 페니스톡 지수가 약 50% 하락했다고 언급 - 2차: 제품이 없는 기업 붕괴. 2000년 pets.com 사례를 듦 - 3차: 매출이 있는 기업 붕괴. 2000년 아마존이 90% 하락한 사례 언급 - 4차: 대형 기업 붕괴. 2000년 IBM 사례를 들며 향후 4개월 경계 권고 언급 종목과 방향 - 퀀텀스케이프(QuantumScape): 제품 없이 시총 550억 달러였다는 점에서 '새로운 pets.com'으로 지목, 하락 추세 언급 - 니콜라(Nikola): 붕괴 사례로 언급 - 테슬라: 1000달러에서 600달러로 하락했다고 언급, 3차 붕괴 시나리오 후보 - 데스크톱메탈, 소파이(SoFi): 장기적으로는 좋은 기업이나 단기 버블 속에서 하락 가능성 언급 - 나스닥: 30% 하락 전까지 시장 조정 미완료로 봄, 현재 상승 중이라고 언급 - S&P500: 현재 상승 중이라고 언급 투자 조언(출연자 권고) - 하락장에서 주식을 팔지 말 것(매도 전까지 손실 미실현) - 신용융자(마진) 부담이 크면 3~4개월 내 줄여 20% 수준으로 낮출 것 리스크 - 향후 4~6개월 내 하락 가능성, 과도한 밸류에이션, 신용 레버리지 리스크 진행자 개인 의견: 그랜섬의 견해를 소개하며 향후 시장 하락 대비를 권고함. 영상 발언 시점은 2021년 8월로 과거 발언임.
다듬은 글
hey everyone uh i'm back and today you know i want to talk about bull market and bear market life cycle and specifically you know i listen to this really good podcast and don't worry about it i'm going to show you right here on the screen that which podcast i'm talking about and the guest was jeremy and uh what i liked about that podcast was the person you know the guest had 40 years of experience in investing markets plus you know how much money he's handling 146 billion dollars so we can take a grain of salt that this person is tremendously knowledgeable and he has vast amount of experience in the market and if he says something then we should listen to it also before i tell you what was the podcast about and if you want to find out how can you protect yourself from upcoming downtown please like this video i want you guys to convert that beautiful gray button into the beautiful blue button yes smash the like button also if you guys haven't subscribed uh subscribe please and also let me know in the comments that if you guys are interested into this kind of videos and if you do then i do read a lot of books and i also listen a lot of podcasts i can obviously make a two minutes or three minutes video about it yes so let's get back into the video so you know i want to specifically talk about market cycles and the guest was also talking about market lifecycle like bull market and the bear market in the podcast you know our guest jeremy here draw a parallel line between 2000 uh stock market bubble and then 2008 uh housing market clubs also he also shows something highlights of 2020 corona cycle bubble so you know the person who was actually interviewing the jeremy he asked the question what do you think about the current market cycle and the question was are we in the bowl cycle it means that the bear cycle is behind us and we are out of the danger zone and now the market is going to keep climbing for another 10 15 years and you know jeremy actually said nothing is over the crash or bubble hasn't popped yet and he gave parallels like back in 2000 he said you know the very first thing which collapsed was penny stocks because whenever there is a higher confidence in the market the people who are initially buying the stocks like retail investors are really in confidence of buying anything in the market so what will they do is they will start buying penny stocks because those are really cheap stocks those penny stocks starts climbing and when market crest starts you know bubble is popping those penny stocks will be hit really hard so now he gives an example that in 2020 during march the very first things which broken down so those stocks wrestle 2000 i think that's the index which is consolidated of penny stocks it fell really hard i think 50 was the decline of that index and then from there he gives an example that do you know what will fail after the penny stocks collapse the company who doesn't have products so he gave an example back in 2000 pets.com it was a really big company and they spent a lot of marketing efforts and no products at all so they said that company failed and then he gives an example here that quantum cap is the new pets.com it is good that they do have promising technology but you know when on the heights quantum caps stock was worth 100 and the market cap for that company was 55 billion dollars and without having producing products no production they weren't actually delivering products to people so he said this kind of companies who doesn't have products they are just idea will start failing and apparel line was again drawn from 2000 and now we have actually seen that the quantum scale has declined nikola was burst also the companies like herds you know they were in huge debt they also collapsed now he says what would be the third wave after this kind of companies will collapse third wave would be the company who has a revenue and he compares to an amazon back then amazon was collapsed ninety percent you know in 2000 and he says maybe tesla would be another scenario here it has already dropped from one thousand to six hundred dollars and maybe other good companies like desktop metal they do a 3d printing other companies like sofi and many such big companies and he give an example that these companies do produce products and they have a really long term good future and good prospect for the shorter term right now everything is in the bubble and when the market collapse this company will also be hit really hard so he gives an example here that you you look at penny stocks fall from the march and then the quantum companies like also fall and then now the tesla desktop medal even though the revenue numbers were really good last week they're still falling and it gives an example in this cycle nasdaq and s p 500 is still up so he says so he says here that until nasdaq falls 30 percent market is not going to be recorrected and all the companies right now is hugely hugely overvalued so the next next fourth wave he says that the fan company will fail and back then in 2000 ibm fell because ibm was the biggest company back then so he gives an example that please stay vigilant for next four months and it might be that this company should also start declining and that would be the sign that bubble is already over i think two suggestions here if this is going to play out in next in next six months then what we should do is when the market goes down never sell the stocks your losses are not realized until you sell the equity the second situation would be if you are in huge margin debt cut down the margin try to pay down all the margin in next three four months you should only have 20 margin debt so let's say a market force for 80 percent you can still afford the hit and if it does happen you know we are always protected if it doesn't happen then we are still in the plus so i think that's my suggestion here and i would end the video right here because sun is down and i'll see you tomorrow with brand new day and brand new idea i'll see you tomorrow bye
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