저자: JimenaTolama사회자—해설중심,출연자없음 · 외국인
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트럼프 암살 시도 후 월가 상승: 다우 신고가, S&P500 5,630 돌파, 러셀2000 강세. 트럼프 관련주(Trump Media 31%↑), 석유·방산·민간교도소, 테슬라 상승; 태양광 등 민주당 우호 섹터 하락. 달러 강세로 멕시코 페소 1.3% 하락(17.8/달러). 비트코인 5.2% 급등해 63,000달러 돌파, 트럼프 당선 확률과 연동 언급. JD 밴스 부통령 후보 지명 소개. 래리 핑크(블랙록)는 양당에 분열 봉합과 성장 촉구.
다듬은 글
Today's strategy brought to you by plumber linea.com. Good morning! I won't leave you in suspense, right? Let's talk about how the markets are moving around the new direction the US election is taking, because this is affecting even the Mexican peso. Bitcoin is also poised to start its own positive streak.
Also, what does Trump's running mate think? And what does Larry Fink of BlackRock ask of the candidates? Don't forget to click the podcast's follow button and activate the bell so you can receive an alert for a new episode every morning. What are we talking about? How did the markets behave on Monday after the attempted assassination of Trump over the weekend?
For those involved in the financial world, you already know this, but for the rest of the listeners, here it is: stocks in general were rising. I agree with what one of the investment advisors said yesterday at CITB: in moments like these, not reacting can be the smartest thing to do. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high.
The one that did have a considerable rise was Trump and Technology Group, going up 31%. Also, the conservative video-sharing platform... Rumble that went up 21 times. The likelihood of a Trump victory also boosted the shares of oil producers, arms manufacturers, and private prisons, as expected. We also discussed this yesterday.
Tesla also benefited, thanks to Elon Musk's stance of showing support for Trump. Those that sank, as also expected, were, for example, solar energy companies. These companies benefit from the Democratic vision, which is more friendly to this sector. The SNP 500 surpassed 5,630 points. Apple reached a new high.
The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, added almost 2%, marking its best four- day streak since 2020. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds surpassed that of 2-year bonds for the first time since January, and as also expected, the dollar rose. It's worth remembering that election years are usually good for stock markets, despite the natural volatility that may occur in the United States, according to Bloomberg data.
The SNP 500 usually registers strong gains; in fact, the index of The benchmark has risen in almost every election year since 1960, with the exception of 2000 and 2008. This record has improved even further in recent years. In the election years of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020, it rose at least 10%. Let's see what the result was by December.
Well, on this first trading day after the attempted assassination of Trump, the markets also had their cherry on top, and that came from Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, who made comments on Monday stating that recent data have increased confidence that inflation is heading toward the 2% target.
The pulse of the peso is not favoring the Mexican peso. What is happening in the United States is causing investors to abandon the currency that, for almost the entire first half of the year, was the best-performing in a basket of emerging market currencies. Get out the eraser to remove that " superpeso" prefix because the strength of the dollar is clearly becoming apparent.
There are other factors to consider, such as carry trade, monetary policy, and other macroeconomic data, but according to a Bloomberg analysis, the Mexican peso is bearing the brunt of the sell-off in foreign exchange markets as bets increase that Donald Trump will secure a second term in the White House.
As we said yesterday, the first thing to watch was the currency market, and there you have it: the peso fell as much as 1.3% on Monday, July 15, before halting its decline to trade at 17.8 pesos per dollar. More volatility is expected because it's no longer just the local front with the debate over judicial reform and the reconfiguration of Congress, which put investors on alert the day after the election on June 2.
Now, the impact of the US election is already being felt. Arup Chatter, macroeconomic strategist at Fargo in New York, told Bloomberg that they are bearish on the peso's outlook if Trump wins, especially due to tariffs and border issues, although he says the domestic context is more worrying. Notice how he's saying...
At least with Trump, one already knows what to expect, but those constitutional changes that could be approved starting in September with the new legislature in Mexico will open Pandora's box. What could continue to generate appeal is if Mexico doesn't adopt any radical policies to discourage investment.
That should continue to support the peso. Furthermore, during Trump's first term, the Mexican peso jumped more than 10% against the dollar, surpassing many of its major currencies. The advance, analysts said, resembled more of a relief rally that accelerated when it became clear that Trump's version of a renegotiated North American trade agreement would include Mexico.
In any case, I consider it too early to know what direction the narrative will take in the coming months and how it will affect the currency, whose course no one dares to predict anyway. Crypto, and as also expected and as has been seen since the attack on Donald Trump, Bitcoin, which is trading at 247, had its biggest jump in almost two months, returning as a safe-haven asset for investors.
And given the expectation that the reaction of the Republican candidate, raising his fist several times, This will increase his chances of winning the election in November. Keep in mind, we still need to see what the polls reflect; so far, none have confirmed it. It's pure speculation, the very nature of the market.
Bitcoin rose to 5.2% on Monday, July 15th, surpassing 63,000, its biggest gain since May 20th. If you're watching the video, please see the following chart, courtesy of Bloomberg. For those who don't see it, notice there are two lines. The first shows Trump's probability of winning the presidency, and notice the surge it experienced after Biden didn't fare well in the debate three weeks ago.
Below, you'll see a blue line, which is the price of Bitcoin. Just when Trump's probability increased after the debate, the cryptocurrency saw its first spike, then fluctuated until this past weekend when Trump's probability increased even more, and Bitcoin rose again. The investment firm Magnet Capital also points out that the Republican Party is receptive to cryptocurrencies and has shown a favorable stance on the issue, which also contributes to the positive trend that could begin.
This market is set to close on July 27th. By the way, Trump is still confirmed to participate in a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, and what he says could further move the price in one direction. This isn't the only meeting Trump has had with the sector this year. In June, he met with Bitcoin miners, and on his social media platform, Truth Social, he said that mining could be—and I quote—"our last line of defense against a CBDC." Trump is referring to a digital currency, and he also expressed his desire for all Bitcoin to be manufactured in the United States.
Yes, that's what he said. The crypto sector is doing its part and often approaches politicians who support virtual assets, even making large donations to the Fair Shake political action committee. Currently, this industry has emerged as an influential player in the 2024 elections, partly to counter the regulatory crackdown led by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
So now more than ever, keep an eye on the Bitcoin price. Mike Pence's electoral bid to JD Vans—remember this name because he will be Donald Trump's running mate. With an eye on the vice presidency, he is a venture capitalist turned senator whose embrace of populist policies attracted national attention and made him a rising star within the Republican Party.
Trump made the announcement on his social media platform, Truth, as the Republican National Convention began in Milwaukee. The attack on Trump serves as a reminder of the importance of the vice-presidential role should something happen to the head of state. Let's talk about J.D. Vans. He is 39 years old, almost 40 years younger than Trump, who is 78, and this marks a possible generational shift for the party.
He could also offer a fresh voice to the Republican Party's efforts to bolster its appeal to working-class white voters, who were once a mainstay of the Democratic Party in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and President Joe Biden's home state of Pennsylvania. J.D. Vans first garnered attention around 2016 when he published his memoirs, in which he starkly portrayed his impoverished childhood in Ohio, sparking a national debate about the challenges facing the white working class.
He was a co-founder of Naria Capital Management, a venture capital fund. He even became one of Trump's most vocal defectors, a tremendous critic who called him harmful, and that's nothing compared to what I'm saying. But in the end, he ingratiated himself with the role of the United States as the so-called savior of the world.
What I mean is, for example, his stance on the war in Ukraine. Vans has openly opposed the United States funding that country in its defense against Russia. In interviews he gave to Bloomberg News, for example, he said that not even the recent Russian missile attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv has changed his opinion.
He said, "It's tragic and terrible, but it doesn't change my opinion that the United States doesn't have the capacity or the interest to respond to all the tragedies that exist in the world." And why did he mention Mike Pence, who was Trump's vice president during his first term? But in the end, they had a falling out over Pence's refusal to block the certification of Joe Biden's electoral victory, even during the uprising at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The people who stormed in were chanting "Orken!" and "Mike Pence!" Joe Biden's campaign manager, Jennifer Oy, has her own opinion on why Trump chose JD Vans. She says it's because he'll do what Mike Pence wouldn't on January 6th: bend to allow Trump and his agenda, even if it means breaking the law.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden calls him a clone. As I was telling you earlier this week, the one who had to report amidst everything that Trump caused is BlackRock, which also reached a record in total asset management, now at $10.6 trillion. Larry Fink took the opportunity to send a message to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, urging them to overcome the divisions in the country after what happened over the weekend, seeking to persuade them to grow capital markets, reduce the burden of regulations, and expand the economy.
This is one of the most listened-to men on this planet, and he manages—well, you saw— how much money. Fink said in an interview With CNBC, he said that growth won't come from tax cuts, that that's too short-term. He added that political discourse in the United States is sometimes frightening, but that these conversations are important to find common ground and boost growth.
He even recalled President Ronald Reagan, who he said created an economic boom, providing that hope. He then stated that without economic growth, the growing deficits, which are at an unsustainable level, will become a major burden for future generations. The best of economic and business information is here on Strategy of the Day.
We're on Twitter as @l estrategia MX, on Instagram you can find me as @jim business, and on YouTube the full episodes live. This was Strategy of the Day, written and narrated by Jimena Tolama, produced by Arturo Luna and Daniel Hernández. Have a very productive day.
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