저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
골프 관련 종목 전반이 지난 3년간 회복세이며, 특히 캘러웨이(ELY)를 최선호주로 제시하고 있다. 1차 결론: 캘러웨이 매수 유지, 어쿠쉬네트도 보유 가능. [골프 산업 테마] 인터랙티브 드라이빙 레인지(톱골프 등) 확산으로 젊은 층의 관심이 증가해 골프가 재조명되고 있다는 주장. [캘러웨이] 6개월 전 추천 후 주가 약 21% 상승. 2019년 두 차례 분기 실적 호조, 8월 자사주 매입 확대 발표. 잭울프스킨 인수(2019년 1월) 후 온라인 채널 성장으로 매출 14% 증가 언급. 북미 출시는 내년 하반기 예정. 헤지펀드 Jana Partners가 9.5% 지분 보유, 매각 또는 사업 분리 압박. 톱골프 IPO 가능성 부각(캘러웨이 지분 약 40%). 톱골프 지분 가치 주당 3~4달러 추정. 주가 약 20달러대, 내년 실적 기준 약 16배 수준으로 저평가 주장. [어쿠쉬네트] 6개월 전 추천 후 주가 약 12% 상승. 그러나 캘러웨이 대비 부진. 2019년 분기 실적 부진(신규 퍼터 생산 문제, 일본 실적 악화, 우천 영향)이 있었으나 연간 가이던스는 유지. 다음 분기 개선 기대. [기타 골프 관련주] 나이키는 중국 부진 우려에도 보유 추천. 컴캐스트(골프채널 보유)와 EPR(톱골프 시설 등 보유, 배당수익률 5.8%)도 언급. EPR은 배당 목적으로 추천. [리스크] 미중 무역 협상(1단계·2단계) 불확실성으로 시장 변동성 큼. 캘러웨이는 과거 실적 가이던스 하향 이력과 인수 통합 리스크 존재. [출연자 전망] 골프 테마는 장기 성장 스토리로 보며, 캘러웨이 주가가 톱골프 자산 가치를 더 반영할 것으로 기대.
다듬은 글
hey we had a fantastic run today and that's thanks to some positive science to China might be willing to make some sort of trade deal this phase one phase two thing we'll find out on Monday I think this Martin saw requires a degree of caution maybe the Chinese changed their minds over the weekend then we go right back down I mean maybe there's not a bag by there is an Ag but I don't know we don't know I mean what a just a total guessing game market went down big when we first heard that it's just some you know phase one phase two that's what we have to hunt for secular growth stories that can work regardless of what substantial progress we've made and what phase one or phase two really is which brings me to the Gulf stocks yep for the last three years golf's making incredible comeback and that's why I keep pounding the table on this theme thanks to the rise of interactive driving ranges like top golf which all of my friends love they love to go top golf birthday seems like that the younger generation is now taking an interest in what used to be a pretty sedate sport these chains use technology to turn something it used to be slow and boring at least to me a driving range isn't exactly where you go for excitement and it's something that's really a lot faster and more competitive it's fun now six months ago I recommended a cushion in its holdings and Callaway golf again they're now up roughly 12 and 21 percent respectively three appear with the ESPYs I've just heard in less than 3% a Christian is the parent company of two major golfers you may have heard of Titleist for equipment and FootJoy for cleats in apparel Callaway makes everything from equipment to apparel and it also owns a minority stake in yes the red hot top golf now the last time I checked in on these guys that cush temp was the safer bet Callaway was more risky turns out that I I got it backwards over the past six months of Christian supported a couple of noticeably bad quarters disappointed me and then they did it again in September companies have some serious self-inflicted wounds like production problems with their new putter they also got more organic challenges you know it kind of you can see chase it out here like tough comparisons Japan rainy weather United States people play less golf when it rains there's something I learn most the research although I should point out total rounds played were basically flat and june/july even though we had a lot of unreasonable unseasonable rain this summer what's amazing about a cushion is that these disappointments haven't done much at all to derail the stock look at this winner ok MASMA has maintained the full-year organic sales and earnings for yes so it's hanging in there that's what matters when you maintain your forecast people don't get too upset when you miss a little bit it's up 12 percent since the last time we highlighted in April now I you a me a copier them well cushions paid you money if you border on my recommendation and it's outperform the average it way underperformed Callaway I mistakenly thought that a cush that was the better bet still even after some not so hot performance knob I'm optimistic about the next quarter we finally got a sustained period of dry weather good for golf and they should be able to get the production as she's back on track one the other hand even though I recommended Callaway I told you was the wrist you're way to play the golf industry I was wrong cowboy remains awesome I should never have flipped my rankings in April it was a mistake typically because look at this huh what a chance that was but and we got we liked it here we'd like this for a long time what can I tell you it really is just a huge winner the problem in February the company gave us some disappointing for your guidance I should have had more faith in management because it happens they were really just kind of pulling some classically you pod which is mean it was under-promise and over-deliver since then in Callaway is reported to terrific beaten race quarters in a row they knocked it out of the park in May and they did it again in August companies have some strong product launches their golf balls are selling like hotcakes and management's been very good about maintaining tight control over their expenses even when the broader golf industry stagnates like it did in the second quarter Callaway's quark off business keeps growing epic drivers chrome soft golf balls Travis Matthew of power they're all very strong and management is now raised its full-year forecast back to where it was when they when it wanted to be where they gave seemingly like guidance public the other word with Callaway involved the company's acquisition Jack Wolfskin that's the germ maker of outdoor apparel and equipment not to mention sports gear Callaway closed this deal in the beginning of January and just a couple months later they cut their sales forecast for the brand thanks to weaker than expected people games for the fall and winter season but over the summer Cal West management spoke to two rainy Connick who the analyst who covers the software Jefferies and they painted a pretty positive picture they point out that Wall Street tends to underestimate Jack bull skin because it's a global brand with relatively limited US exposure while she's just not familiar with it plus cowboy is the triple track record when it comes to integrating acquisitions two years ago they brought Travis Mathew the golf apparel business and it's now one of the hottest brands fast forward August when the copy report its most recent quarter and Jack wolf skins turns out to be on fire 14% growth thanks to some incredible strength from its online business oh and Callaway is planning a broader North American launch for it sometime in the second half of next year I thought the brand was nate- it turns out to be a major positive most importantly for Callaway though we in June learned that Jack Jana Partners that's J a na jaana partners big Optimus hedge fund had taken a 9.5 percent stake in the company the guys at Janna believe Callaway stock is too cheap and they want the company either put itself up for sale or divesting business in order to unlock value I think this company's been extremely well run but I can't complain about an activist coming in and lighting a fire under management especially wherein that activist firm is a totally heavy hitter like Janna you know and that's this last bit of part I think is really Jana sure enough in August Callaway raises buyback and then earlier this week we learned the TopGolf might be planning to come public next year finally an IPO that I might want top coughs the major interactive driving range change in Callaway owns 40% of the business there's a widespread says that they don't get enough credit for this investment Callaway trades the $20 and changed their top golf stake might be worth as much as three to four dollars per share if top golf comes public and here's the only you know I always say just say something no to I POS I might change my mind about this one got to see the numbers of course calorie can ring the register in the position but even if they don't sell it I'm betting the stock will more fully reflect the value of this terrific asset one-stop golf has its own valuation well analyst you just plug in does some of the parts model SOT PST Pierce McCall so here we have a fabulous company with great fundamentals a huge potential catalyst and activist hedge fund pushing for even more value creation the best thing about Callaway is it even for the stocks monster run up ten percent since the TopGolf IPO story Brooklyn Tuesday the stock still sells for just sixteen times next year adjustment cheaper the every stock finally there are also some plenty of ancillary golf plays like he's got a good golf business it's been very strong I think it's absolutely worth sticking with you know I like the stock and Nike even up here okay and then especially we're experiencing a real fall with China of course it would be even better for Nike Comcast the parent company this network also happens to own the Golf Channel which has been very creative about monetizing their viewer base they've got a subscription streaming service and an online store for all things golf Comcast stock has been on fire since to transform that was this transformal acquisition of a sky that's had chai and British broadcaster but please don't forget this one view our properties it's a real estate investment trust focus on entertainment recreation and education assets including yes 35 top golf facilities that's roughly 12% of total portfolio that's how I know about top cop APR has been an excellent performer of last 18 months and even here despite the fact the stocks run 5.8 percent yield you want yield you want an income EP our bottom line when you find a powerful secular trend that just keeps working you got to stick with it Golf is working and that's why you got to stick with Callaway and even a cush net although if you have to pick one after what I've said its Callaway and don't forget if you want yield I suggest you go with EP or stick with C
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