원문 보기
bonds are woefully mispriced yields need to be much higher prices need to be much lower stocks are overpriced uh their multiples are too high the U.S dollar is dramatically overpriced because it's going to lose a tremendous amount of its purchasing power over time and therefore it should have a much lower exchange rate than the one it has right now it also means that gold and silver prices are much too low because right now gold is priced for a world where there is no inflation where inflation has been vanquished by a tough Federal Reserve that is committed to ridding the economy of inflation when the markets realize that that's not the case that the FED is going to choose inflation as the Lesser evil because that's the choice do we have a massive economic collapse financial crisis depression waves of defaults and bankruptcies or do we tolerate higher inflation the FED already made that deal with the devil and it's going going to keep its commitments we're going to have higher inflation the markets just need to come to terms with that and price it into assets and of course it also means a huge decline in the American standard of living because I think the recognition of this reality is going to be the final nail in the Dollar's coffin it's going to include cause it to lose its status as the world's Reserve currency and so Americans are not going to be able to exchange the money that we print for the goods everybody else produces we're going to have to live within our means and those means have been greatly diminished during the years that we've been able to run these massive trade deficits and Outsource all of our manufacturing we've gotten a small taste of those Supply Channel bottlenecks recently well is we're going to get a full uh helping of it later once the dollar plunges and we really see how much we depend on Global Supply chains but again to wrap this up when it comes to individual investors right we need to take advantage of this situation you know I have been preparing and helping my clients prepare for this for over a decade and the only thing that surprised me is that we've been able to Kick the Can down the road for as many years as we have but everything else that's happened is what I predicted it's just taking place on a longer time scale than I would have imagined over a decade ago but be that as it may we're here and the fact that we were able to Kick the Can down the road for as many years as we did just made the problems much worse the bubble has grown much larger during the years of canned kicking and as a result the collapse is much greater it means that investors stand to lose a lot more purchasing power if they don't understand what's going to happen and modify their portfolios to account for this and it also means that the investors who do make those changes are going to make even greater profits I believe as a result because the bigger the bubble the more air there is to come out and the more air that comes out of the bubble I think the more profits that the people make who bet against that bubble and so that's what we're doing at Europe Pacific Asset Management with our strategies but I think for people who want to speculate and who are willing to assume a higher degree of risk and that's always the case when you're investing in gold and silver mining companies I think those assets are among the most mispriced assets in the market because if inflation drives the price of gold up to 5 000 or 10 000 the markets currently assume that the price of gold is going to stay at 1800 or lower into the indefinite future uh I think the markets are wrong but more importantly not only will a much higher price of gold relative to the cost of mining it really help earnings of these gold mining companies but it's going to cause a lot of gold that markets currently assign a zero value to to all of a sudden have incredible value because if a gold mining company has gold and it costs two thousand dollars to get that gold out of the ground and you don't think the price is going above 1800 that gold is worthless it costs more to mine it than you can get by selling it but that whole dynamic changes what if the price of gold goes up to five thousand and the cost of mining it goes up to three thousand you know now you have two thousand dollar value for every ounce in the ground and now that value is now going to be factored in to the price of these stocks so I think you have tremendous opportunity in that segment of the of the market for those of you who don't want to take as much risk I think you can also protect yourself with our other investment strategies uh that invest in value-oriented companies out outside the United States companies that pay good dividends companies that sell products and provide services that people need you know inflation is a problem worldwide the FED isn't the only Central Bank that kept interest rates too low or printed too much money so when you own a business you want to own businesses that provide products and services that people need so that you have pricing power to raise your prices as your costs are going up you don't want to be in the business of providing items that people just buy after they finish paying for all the stuff they need you want to sell Necessities not luxuries the discretionary items are the ones that are in trouble because as people pay more money for food or more money for energy and things like that they're going to have to cut back on other things and so you don't necessarily want to own stock in those companies because they're going to be facing a lot of economic headwinds in addition to Deaths higher interest rates and Rising employee so we are making these calculations when it comes to determining our our allocations and the companies we buy specifically all the companies we're buying are designed to thrive in an environment where the U.S economy is weak where we have stag inflation where we have high inflation and a weak economy in the U.S and I believe that when the dollar finally tanks on this reality that is going to set off an economic boom outside the United States particularly in the Emerging Markets because those economies have suffered from an overvalued dollar they are going to experience relief when the dollar is no longer overvalued and in fact I think there's going to be big inflows of capital into these economies that is really going to provide a big boost to their economy and therefore provide a significant increase to the uh asset values in those economies I actually do have have an emerging market fund not just the stocks but the currencies that those stocks are denominated because as the U.S dollar Falls I think it's the currencies of those countries that are going to rise those markets have the most to gain by the collapse of the dollar and I think that they have you know shared a disproportionate burden in supporting the dollar because you know if Americans are living beyond their means which they clearly are by virtue of the reserve currency in these massive deficits so if American citizens are living beyond their means that means citizens in other countries by definition must be living beneath their means to make this possible and I think it's the Emerging Market uh consumers that are bearing the brunt of that of that subsidy and so when the dollar collapses and Americans are no longer living above their means which means Americans aren't consuming nearly as much off then who's going to get to consume the stuff that Americans are now too poor to buy I think a lot of those new consumers are going to be found in the emerging market
Comments 0