저자: 스탠리드러켄밀러 · 외국인
요약 보기
드러켄밀러는 2022년 인플레이션과 자산버블 붕괴로 2023년 경기침체가 올 가능성이 높다고 보며, 현재 시장 가격보다 변화를 봐야 한다는 조언을 한다. 경기침체와 시장 전망: 과잉저축 약 1.5~2조 달러가 남아 있지만 자산버블, 우크라이나 사태, 중국 제로코로나 정책을 고려하면 2023년 침체를 강하게 가정한다. 침체 시기는 연초인지 연말인지 확신하지 못한다. 투자 전략: 주식을 털고 채권과 국채를 사서 집에 가라고 조언한다. 과거 약세장과 강세장 모두에서 높은 수익을 냈고 주식을 대체로 무시하는 방식이었다고 설명한다. 비트코인과 금: 인플레이션이 지속되는 강세 국면이라면 비트코인을, 스태그플레이션형 약세장이면 금을 선호한다고 밝힌다. 비트코인과 나스닥의 상관관계가 강하다고 본다. 블록체인: 5~10년 내 블록체인이 실질적 경제 동력이 될 것으로 보며 금융회사 등을 파괴할 가능성에 관심이 있다고 말한다. 핵심 조언: 현재(현재 가격)가 아니라 변화가 주가를 움직이므로, 1.5년 뒤 세상을 상상하고 그때 자산 가격을 예측하라고 권한다. 기업 실적과 마진 측면에서는 현재 적자 기업의 설비 축소와 초과이익 기업의 마진 하락을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
stanley druckenmiller has said that his number one advice to young people is that they must not invest in the present he says that young people should know that the present is not what moves stock market prices instead it's change that moves them he wants young people to think history is gonna win once inflation gets about five percent it's never going to come down without a recession stanley believes that the recession is about to happen and before we go into detail please remember to like this video and subscribe to be aware of any future videos also hit that bell notification icon so that you won't miss a single upload going back to the video mr druckenmiller says and i quote depending on who you listen to we have about a trillion and a half to two trillion of excess savings right now it may take some time to work through all of this but given the extent of the asset bubble and the destruction in the markets given what's going on in ukraine given the zero covert policy in china he doesn't take a lot of comfort from all of this so he strongly assumes that we're going to have a recession sometime in 2023 mr druckenmiller says he just doesn't know whether it's going to be in the early part or the later part of that year he worries that one of the most challenging things for him right now is maybe it says something about his dysfunctional personality but he has always made even higher returns in bear markets and bull markets the way he did it was pretty much ignoring equities he says you should take them off the table buy bonds buy treasuries and go home going on to describe that he has never been presented a cocktail where you have eight percent inflation you think the economy might weaken and bond yields three percent it's an analog with no precedent in history because we've never had central banks with this situation he brought up europe and the us as examples the prior has negative rates with eight percent inflation meanwhile the latter has never had anything like this so you can't always get into black or white he calls it an artwork to invest from cycle to cycle he says that you have to constantly innovate and not just be a slave to past models you can't build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion out of it like it doesn't matter he says that he also has high frequency signals and there is a strong correlation between crypto and the nasdaq he doesn't think it takes genius to figure out why he provided some insight that he's looking at a few indicators that let him know that what charlie munger and bill miller say about crypto he is also sympathetic to stanley says it would be a surprise if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy five to ten years from now and not a major disruptor with companies that will have been founded between now and then he remarked that it'll do very well for them to challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption that is why he finds crypto interesting he's uncertain why other than nasdaq type risk playtakers are the ones that send to play in bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question he has witnessed this and this has gone on for long enough he stated that if investors believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward it's in a bull phase that investors want to own bitcoin however it's in a bare face for other assets if you want to own gold stanley thinks he just articulated the reason but sometimes he doesn't care because this is going long on enough he started to believe what he was observing and for sure he thinks we're going to have an inflationary bull market he stated and i quote i'd want to own bitcoin more than gold and if i thought we're going to have a bear market you know a stagflation type thing then i would want to have gold this doesn't mean i'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward what contributes to this is what i've observed that's about 85 while the other factor that comes into play is the type of investor whether or not you're an over-the-counter or a fang type investor so long as they believe inflation they tend to be younger and they want to play bitcoin as a joke he mentions that based on his observations he thinks that old kamajins want the world to fall apart because they don't own bitcoin and that they only own gold he went on to say that if he was a tech investor he would certainly be learning he said that there was the internet wave followed by the cloud wave and now he would certainly be looking into blockchain very deeply into the possible disruption it might take however he still believes that the fundamentals are fundamentals when companies are losing money capacity is always going to shrink and their margins are going to look much better he estimates that in three years time when companies are over earning their margins are going to come down he thinks all that stuff will be out there and the great thing about his original mentors was that they made him focus on what moves the stock price this brings us back full circle into his number one advice to young people it is do not invest in the present the present does not move stock prices it is always change and how this change happens his last bit of advice is for investors like you and me it's this imaging practice where he says and i quote i want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now where these security prices would trade versus right now given the world you envision that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business this means that we have to consider the possible changes that are occurring in the real world anyway we hope that this video provides an in-depth insight on the future of crypto and how you could be a part of it based on what stanley druckenmiller advises young investors again be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification icon for future videos good luck out there you
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