Dan Ives: Software sector will start to bottom from current levels

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적은 훌륭했으나 주가는 약세. Dan Ives는 실적 자체는 나무랄 데 없다고 보며, 최근 AI 우려로 투자자 심리가 지난해 4월 이후 가장 불안하다고 진단. 엔비디아는 시장 우려와 달리 실적 기대를 상회했고, 다음 분기 매출 전망 780억 달러와 블랙웰·루빈 파이프라인 5000억 달러 이상을 근거로 제시. 소프트웨어 섹터는 현 수준에서 바닥을 다질 것이라고 전망. Anthropic 이벤트, Salesforce, ServiceNow 등의 충격 이후가 저점이 될 수 있다는 판단이며, 전반적 투자 논리는 변하지 않았고 오히려 전보다 강세적이라고 언급. Microsoft는 최근 몇 년간 주가와 펀더멘털이 가장 괴리된 종목이라 평가. Azure 고객 중 10%가 AI 경로로 이동했고 이로 인해 약 250~300억 달러의 추가 매출이 예상된다고 주장. 현재는 투자자들이 외면하는 상태이나 연간 최고 추천주 중 하나라고 언급하며 실적 추정치가 과소평가되어 있다고 봄. Amazon은 연초 대비 9% 이상 하락했으나 SOTP 기준으로 최근 4~5년 중 가장 매력적인 구간이라고 평가. Jassy의 AI 투자와 데이터센터 가속화를 긍정적으로 봄. 칩 분야 승자로 Nvidia, AMD, Micron, 하이퍼스케일러 승자로 Microsoft, Amazon을 꼽음. 설비투자(CapEx)와 기업 AI 지출이 향후 12~24개월 주가를 결정할 것이라는 관점. 이번 주는 매우 힘들었지만 이러한 불안 국면이 오히려 기회가 될 수 있다는 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Welcome in Dan Ives on what's been Nvidia's no good very bad week. Despite an earnings report that wowed the street once again including you personally in the way you covered this company, couldn't throw any stones at this report. Yet, what gives with this bad week for this stock? And what does it mean then for how it might trade in the month ahead?

02. Yeah, Scott. I mean it it's a stunner the way that this thing's traded here. You know, I I'd expect this is stock that actually be 210 215. But this is if you look from a report perspective, there's no way they could have done better. I mean the 78 billion for next quarter, the 500 billion plus in terms of the pipeline, you know, we see what with Blackwell and Reuben.

03. I just think in my opinion this is as nervous as I've seen tech investors going back to last April. And we're in always sort of AI goose narrative where good is bad, bad is worse. But I just I think a step back. I look at OpenAI with the funding round, check. You look at the data center revenue from Nvidia, check.

04. I think software's going to start the bottom here especially after the Anthropic event, Salesforce, ServiceNow and others. So, this is a turbulent period, but we're our thesis is unchanged. I'd say more bullish relative to the overall thesis. Wow, I mean I'll get to software in a minute because the you know, prior few days it looked pretty good.

05. Some people trying to call a bottom, today not so much. But I'll come back to that. The funding round that you and and Kate Rooney were were just talking about, I think immediately when I see the announcement the fallout for a stock like Microsoft which is not trading well, which hasn't traded well.

06. What is the fallout? Look, I mean Microsoft I think it's probably the most disconnected stock that that I've seen in the last few years relative to where it's trading. And now obviously the view like Amazon, others catching up. It's no longer just them in terms of that OpenAI relationship as well as what we see on the the center side.

07. But look, my view is 10% of Azure customers have gone down the AI path. So, when you actually look at this, it's going to be an incremental 25, 30 billion of revenue for Microsoft. It's just right now, this is it's a do not enter zone in terms of the view from the investors. You're seeing them you really head for the elevators in the name.

08. But, Sky, as I've talked about like this is one of our top picks for the year, multiple years, because of where they play on enterprise, what the Dell was doing. In my view, like OpenAI was essentially the training wheels for now what I think they're going to be able to do themselves. And I think numbers are significantly underestimated.

09. It's a it's a massive head scratcher that this sub 400. Scratching your head too about Amazon? I mean, the stock barely getting a bump today. It's down more than 9% year-to-date. They seem to be, you know, elbowing their way more heavily towards the front of the line of the arms race. Yeah, look, I mean, Amazon's another one.

10. Like, if you look at the sum of the parts, you could say it's as most attractive it's been in probably the last four or five years. Jassy, everything he's doing even on the OpenAI investment, you look at what I view it from a data center perspective and acceleration we'll see in the next few years. I just think right now, we are seeing a a situation where all these stocks are getting thrown out.

11. There's a view, obviously, Anthropic Cloud as we've talked about in terms of the worries that's happening here in terms of the entrenched players. But, but our view is these are the times to look at who are the winners on chips, Nvidia, AMD, Micron. The winners in the hyperscaler side, Microsoft, Amazon, and others.

12. And then you look at what's happening in software. And I think we're going to look back, as brutal as this week's been, a hard show in terms of the nervousness, these will be the opportunities, given we follow the CapEx spending, and ultimately where the spending is on the enterprise in AI, and that will dictate where these stocks go over the next 12, 18, 24 months.