AI's impact on software stock prices is overdone, says Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni

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AI 우려로 소프트웨어 등 기술주가 급락했지만 과도하다는 주장. 12월 7일 리밸런싱으로 매그니피센트7 언더웨이트, 글로벌(해외) 오버웨이트를 추천했고 성과가 좋았다고 설명. 시장 조정은 건강한 강세장 지속의 일부로 봄. 소프트웨어는 과매도로 보이나 개별 종목 선별이 필요하며 ETF보다 에너지·소재·필수소비재 선호. 금융주는 AI 우려로 눌렸으나 JP모건의 AI 투자 및 M&A 수혜로 지역은행 등 재평가 가능성 언급.

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01. Welcome back. A rough day for tech as you know, so when can we expect that trade to stabilize? Let's ask Ed Yardeni. He is president of Yardeni Research with me once again at Post 9. Are you thinking a lot about that as you look at this tech trade, wondering like what's actually happening here? Well, uh December 7th, we uh decided to rebalance uh our recommendation.

02. We actually uh recommended underweighting uh the Magnificent Seven. We thought that there was just going to be too much competition as a result of all the money they were spending on the data centers. Uh and we also uh went overweight going global instead of staying home. Uh so those things have worked out pretty well.

03. I think they they have a ways to go. I I I think it's a very actually very healthy for a continuation of the bull market. It's not a lot of fun for those who are still overweight uh the Magnificent Seven. know. There are questions though as to whether that that rest of the market trade is a little long in the tooth.

04. Right. And I mean if if it is, and then you have weakness out of tech, you're going to have you're going to have market problems. the the get get out of dodge trade, get out of the Magnificent Seven, is basically uh been around since late October, when Michael Berry kind of raised some relevant questions about the profitability of these companies.

05. Uh the rebalancing overseas has been going on since the beginning of of last year. In the grand scheme of of stock market history, that's that's really fairly new kind of developments. What does it tell you, because I mean you've seen so many markets, Ed, and you've written about so many periods of time, too.

06. What does it tell you when you see a market that is so quickly driven and swayed by a obscure research report or you know, a projection about something that might happen? Does that tell you anything, make you feel a certain way about the market you're watching? Yeah, I mean it clearly with the benefit of hindsight indicates that uh the uh the euphoria on AI wasn't sustainable and it turned into AI fatigue and now it's AI fear.

07. It's almost kind of AI derangement syndrome. I mean people have kind of gone off the deep end about how this is going to create major job losses and all sorts of other dire predictions. I I think these are all extremes. I think AI is a great tool. I think we're all going to be using the tool to make ourselves more productive.

08. I see this is that that a positive but the market right now is going through all sorts of mental gymnastics. Well, I mean it looks you know obviously software is the epicenter. The biggest you know declines in that space ex I think the financial crisis like 30 Yeah, they're huge. Yeah, yeah. Is that overdone?

09. Yeah. I think it is overdone to a certain extent but in this case you got to be a stock picker. I don't know that you buy an ETF of software stocks because some are not going to make it and others are going to make it very very very well. So given that we there's a lot we don't know how this all plays out, why not go with the flow and go into energy, materials, consumer staples.

10. Those have all done well and of course the overseas trade. I mean we've you've talked about what's going on in Korea and in other markets. But you know energy is a small piece of the the market. It's tiny. It's it's not hard to overweight. Staples have have done really well. Maybe they're too expensive.

11. I mean those aren't areas of the market that are going to make you feel like oh okay, I'm going to lean in there and I think the S&P can have a really great year. I think you know financials is certainly a place that's been beaten down of late because of the AI fears but as Jamie Dimon CEO of JP Morgan, explained uh that he expects that they will spend $20 billion in 1 year on on technology, specifically AI, and that net net it's going to be a big productivity booster.

12. And I think a lot of financials are going to be like that. The regional financials, I think you're going to see benefit from AI, but also benefit from M&A.