저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 달러의 기축통화 지위가 머지않아 끝날 것이라는 주장. 1971년 금태환 중단은 사실상 채무 불이행이었고, 달러는 그때 기축통화 지위를 잃었어야 했다고 봄. 인플레이션은 통화량 팽창의 결과이며, 코로나 대응으로 과도하게 돈을 찍은 것이 물가 상승의 원인. 공식 CPI 5%는 실제 체감보다 낮고 실제로는 연 10~15% 수준이라고 주장. 향후 인플레이션이 15~20% 수준으로 몇 년간 지속될 수 있으며, 부동산·소비재 가격 인상이 실제로 진행 중이라고 언급. 인플레 시기 대응 방향: 현금·채권·고정수익 연금·보험 해지환급금은 구매력 손실이 크므로 피해야 함. 부채는 인플레로 실질 가치가 줄어 유리. 실물자산과 배당주(특히 스위스 등 상대적으로 건전한 국가의 가치주)를 보유할 것을 권함. 본인은 주식을 많이 보유하고 금도 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 금 전망: 보석·반도체·치과·항공우주 등 산업 수요가 늘어 가격 상승 가능성. 석유·밀 등은 보관 문제로 비선호. 주의: 해당 발언은 2021년 9월 영상 기준이며, 명시된 '1~3개월 방향' 예측은 아니고 장기 인플레 및 금 상승 관점임.
다듬은 글
what happens does the dollar lose global reserve status does it go into hyperinflation like what do you think happens well i mean first of all it depends on how you define hyperinflation i mean are you talking you know weimar republic zimbabwe you know stuff like that or you know countries that have had high rates of inflation but maybe not you know like where they completely destroyed the currency where you're talking about you know trillions to buy a cup of coffee um you know we're gonna have very very high inflation uh at a minimum and i'm talking about worse than the 1970s that may not constitute hyperinflation but it's going to be pretty bad i do think that the dollars days as the reserve currency are over i kind of have a hard time imagining a final scenario where the dollar retains reserve currency status so i do think it's going to lose that status you know where i'm not sure when the date is i was i meant to look that up but we're almost at 50 years since we went off the gold standard in 1971.
and the dollar should have been rejected at that time as the reserve currency because the only reason it was the reserve currency was because it was backed by gold and you know a lot of people now try to say that you know they're talking about the debt ceiling and you know we can't default on our debts and america has never defaulted that's not true 1971 was a default we promised all of our creditors to repay them in gold for their federal reserve notes and for their us treasuries and then we defaulted and said we promised to give you gold and now we're gonna give you nothing and and so the dollar should have lost its reserve status then but it didn't the dollar got marked down but it it didn't get you know counted out it it held out of that status so i think the next move is for the world to totally reject the dollar and and to go back uh to the monetary uh system that existed before the dollar which was gold as the primary reserve rather than in u.s dollars the gold stuff yeah we got we're going to do that in a second what do you think inflation is right now so the main number for cpi was five percent what do you think inflation is are they right well first of all inflation is the expansion of the money supply that's the actual definition and so money supply is growing what 20 a year 30 a year it's really really big now as far as um what is the actual increase in the cost of living the consumer prices which is what most people uh think about when you talk about inflation well the way the government measures it using the cpi if you annualize you know the first half or the first five months of this year i think we're running it about eight percent a year increasing the cost of living but i don't think that accurately reflects what's really happening with prices because i don't think the consumer price index really captures the true extent to which prices are going up so my guess would be that right now we have annual inflation probably between 10 and 15 right now that's what americans are experiencing as far as their cost of living which certainly rivals or exceeds the worst of the 1970s so we've already got that the thing is the fed and the government is telling us and everybody is telling us this that it's all transitory that this is all just related to the reopening of the economy and so we don't have to worry about it but that's not why we have this the the prices are going up because of what the government did in response to covet not because of covet not because of the reopening it's because of all the money printing it's because of all the deficit spending yes the fact that we're not producing as much stuff is part of the problem a lot of people aren't working and so they didn't make stuff but the problem is as we made less stuff we printed more money that was a huge mistake we should have printed less money the fed should have drained liquidity as the economy contracted not added they just threw gasoline on the fire so deflation is going to get much much worse uh what people are experiencing now the only trans the only the only way this is transitory is that we're transitioning to much higher inflation all right so uh if we're now at 10 to 15 percent what do you think is likely if they continue on the path that they're on they continue to print trillions they continue to keep interest rates low when you say much higher is that a 25 30 50 like is there a way for you to kind of identify what you actually think we could get to in the near term uh in terms of uh the continuation of their policies well look i mean we can continue with 15 to 20 inflation for a number of years and if you think about what that means that means like the dow jones has to go up 15 20 just to stay even right your house has to go up 15 to 20 percent and that's actually happening right now i mean if you look at real estate prices uh you know around the country i mean they're really going up i mean even more so in puerto rico it's more like they're going up 15 20 percent a month uh but i mean all around the the country you're seeing this uh but it's also uh consumer good prices uh that are going up i mean i get emails all the time people share with me the announcements of price increases that they're getting either from their company where it's their employer kind of letting all the employees know you know how much prices are going up or they're just sending me their consumers and they've got notices from various companies that they buy from letting them know what the price increases are and they're huge you know i've never seen price increases this much and it's not like we're just making up what we lost during the pandemic these are huge increases from where the prices were before the pandemic started so when you start thinking about um kind of what people can do with this right if inflation's high how do you think about where they can actually put capital uh in order to protect it is it something where uh we all know that you're into gold is gold the only answer or are there other types of assets that you think are worth uh folks looking into or or um kind of uh doing research on well you know what inflation does is it wipes out the value of paper assets so if you have cash in the bank uh inflation is bad if you own a bond that's even worse because people are now going to pay you your money that you loan them that they're going to pay it back in the future well if you have inflation money in the future is worth even less than money in the present so the longer the duration of that bond the more of your purchasing power you're going to lose by the time you get your money back so you don't want to own bonds you don't want to have cash value in things like annuities let's say you have an annuity and it's going to pay you a fixed return well that return is going to erode away in purchasing power as a result of inflation so you don't want a fixed annuity you don't want cash value in an insurance policy what inflation does is it transfers purchasing power from creditors to debtors so you want to have debt that will get wiped out but you don't want to just go out and borrow a bunch of money and you know buy consumer goods because you still have that debt you know the consumer goods are gone you want to buy real assets that generate income that can service the debt in the short run and that will ultimately retire the debt in the long run as the debt is destroyed in value uh relative to uh you know the assets that you own so you want to own real stuff in inflation you want to own assets and so what i own is i own a lot of stocks a lot of common stocks looking around the world at what you can own you know whether it's real estate or stocks or collectibles i think that value-oriented stocks dividend-paying stocks in countries like where i am here in switzerland i think there's still a lot of value in some of the swiss stock market and you know other countries that i invest in i think that relative to other assets and i'm looking at property while i'm here and i think residential real estate is very expensive compared to what i can buy publicly listed companies for and the dividends that i'm able to get so i think that being an equity owner of a business in a country that is not nearly as screwed up as the united states has much sounder underlying economic fundamentals where i can see real investment value in the stocks meaning the p e's are not too high the dividend yields are not too low you know well-managed companies been around for a long time so i like owning real stuff i don't want to buy the bonds of these companies because inflation will destroy their value i want to be the equity owners because the stockholders benefit when the bonds are destroyed because that transfers purchasing power from the creditors to the equity investors but i also want to own gold as a commodity because what you're doing with inflation is you want to preserve your purchasing power so the price of everything that i'm going to want to buy in the future is going to go up well the price of gold is also going to go up because there are people who need to buy gold jewelers need to buy gold because they got to make jewelry uh computer chip manufacturers need to buy gold because they need to conduct electricity their chips you know the dental industry the uh air aerodynamics you got all you know you got a space race going on right now well they need they need gold to get up there there's a lot of industries where they're going to be buying gold in the future and it's going to be more expensive just like you know all everything else so i don't want to buy a bunch of oil because i got no place to put it i don't want to buy a bunch of wheat because hey i mean wherever i got to put that it may not you know stay eventually it's going to you know rot and you know the shelf life of a lot of the things that i might want to buy in 5 or 10 years i mean i can't buy it now but i can buy the gold now because i can get a lot of value in a small place and in five or ten years when i need to buy that stuff i can use my gold you
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