저자: TrishRegan · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼의 연례 서한을 인용해 지정학·재정지출·중앙은행 정책 리스크를 경고하고, 금리 추가 상승 가능성(8%까지 언급)과 경기침체 위험을 강조. 인플레이션 장기화와 달러·정치 불안으로 금 수요가 늘고 있다고 주장하며, 자사 모델 포트폴리오(인플레이션 보호, 인컴 빌더) 구독을 홍보.
다듬은 글
somebody who I think is just a really terrific guy I know some of you got you know you don't like the big Banks and this that and the other well this big Banker is a really standup banker and is pretty forthcoming and is pretty straightforward and I'm talking about Jamie Diamond who runs our nation's largest bank JP Morgan Chase he moved over in Davos earlier this year like defending conservatives saying what's going on like you can't just keep profiling people and writing off half the country enough is enough right well he's out with a new letter he comes out with like an annual letter it's a it's a long one it's a disy I've read it all and he's making some interesting predictions before I get to those I just want to you to hear his frame of mind this was at a conference that he was at I want to say this was towards the end of the year so a few months back he hasn't really changed his tune he's got a lot of concerns about the future ahead listen to Jamie Diamond when you look at the geopolitical situation as complex as we've seen I I don't know if it's 1948 or 1938 obviously we all hope it goes away I think it's a little bit of wishful thinking it's going to take real leadership on the part of many people out there and then I look at the financial situation the the fiscal spending which is more than it's ever I'm talking about the United States but it's almost true around the world it's more than it's ever been in peacetime by a long shot with the highest debt levels we ever had by government and there's this kind of omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can can manage through all this stuff I I I I'm cautious I don't think it makes a piece of difference whether rat go up 25 basis points or more like zero none nada I think whether the whole curve goes up 100 basis points you know I would I would be prepared for it I don't know if it's going to happen but I look at what we're seeing today more like the 70s a lot of spending a lot of it's going to be wasted I'm in favor of this whole uh ESG effort on the other hand if you look at the way we're going about it uh it's almost like governments want to whack them all and force it but no carbon taxes no rational way to go about it that would be more important the United States for example you know you can't build pipelines to reduce coal emissions you can't build uh you can't build get the permits to build solar and wind and things like that so we we better get our act together I'm hopeful when I listen to all the R&D see around the world we will make the breakthroughs we need to be climate but it's going to be a day later and longer than because our own basic uh incompetence I also want to add add one last thing I'm taking this from Bob Gates to fix this it's going to take real leadership from the Western World in particular uh America but leadership which is not just military diplomatic development finance and this development fance I know if AJ is still here what we need in development Finance dwarfs what governments can do so it it can't be done without private capital and private Capital you know isn't going to come in if they you know you build something that gets taken from a government or something like that that so we have a lot of work to do it's one of the reasons I think these events are positive uh but I I would be quite concerned and the other thing about when you look at economics I think people prepare for possibilities and probabilities not calling one course of action since I've never seen anyone call it I want to point out that central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong okay so maybe there humility about financial forecasting I I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year he spot on they were absolutely dead wrong I said it at the time I was pounding the table here telling you beware of inflation beware of inflation we're going all the way back to August of 2020 when I started this podcast I know a lot of people didn't want to hear it back then but I was telling you like there's no way that this is actually going to end well there's no possible way so Jamie Diamond is making the point in his letter that was from a few months ago guys but he's making the point in his letter that the mini banking crisis of 2023 is over right the svb thing that was a disaster but beware of higher rates and recession not just for banks but for the entire economy and then when he talks about those higher rates he said look they could go to 8% so if you get rates at 8% what does that do that dampens everything for the economy he he he's he's evoking the World War III stuff too I mean JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond here you go this headline brought to you it's caught up with the mainstream media CBS News sounds alarm about possible worse risks to us since World War II and why is this well one the money printing okay this just insane how much money they printed and that's why gold keeps going up in value because you know you're you're Emerging Market country how you feeling about things right about now you're saying hey is the US going to be there for me does the Dollar even matter anymore and so you start to question all this stuff and what do you do you go and buy gold because you're like okay well I got a sure thing here let me make sure I have a sure thing nothing's a sure thing all right nothing's a sure thing but people are feeling a lot of trepidation about the US dollar and about interest rates and how much the US can afford and the political Dynamic of all of this because we're so broken politically I mean when you've got for the first time in US history the president of the United States former president who's about to begin a trial on April 15th and they're selecting the jury as we speak and you have all these rapidly political people surrounding this entire ordeal you know what that's a reason to be frightened political people stupid people and they are stupid so look out for yourself look out for yourself it's a big part of what Rob and I talk about he's going to come on the show later this week and we can we can talk about it together here with you so save up your questions but this is why we created these model portfolios so there's model portfolios you can actually pick one that's inflation protected you can you can have an Income Builder because you know the whole idea is wait a second as you get older you want a little income coming in you don't want to take on a ton of risk but you need that income to keep up with inflation because inflation thanks to these morons is so off the charts and if they get their way on the student loan thing it's going to be even worse so there's a constant theme here and this is why I urge you I urge you to look out for yourself to prepare yourself and part of that preparation is getting the right research from people who don't have anything other than your best interested heart which would be me and my colleague and my co-founder at 76 research.com
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