Falling SVB = Stocks OFF? (Jeremy Siegel) #investing

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01. as I mentioned who's going to be with us today he of course a famed Finance professor of the Wharton School Professor it's good to have you on just give me your thoughts on on what is top of mind for you you just heard our report about what's coming out of Switzerland the impact that it's had on the market all day long well Scott I hope that this knocks uh some reality into the fed and uh chairman Powell you know we've been talking about the the big inversion 40 biggest and 40 Years of the term structure certainly svb went down on that inversion now yeah Bankers are not supposed to borrow short and lend long we know all about that but there's a reason that every recession last 50 years has filed an inversion something blows up something goes wrong um I I think this ultimately could be good because if you look at the Futures market right now they're saying one and done uh uh and then and then a decline as you know I've been saying that they've been way too tight uh for the last six to nine months actually I'd have to have to look at the liquidity the inversion and I think that those realities are finally seeping in I hope they're seeping in to the fat what's what should the FED do next week well assuming that not no further crisis in the next seven days I think what's going to happen is they are going to do 25 but the message is going to be a likely pause they won't commit to a pause but uh they're going to say look at the producer price index uh that we got a very good news this morning they're going to say we're beginning to see good progress on that inflation front we know the bulk of monetary uh tightening is yet to be felt and given the financial climate and the risks uh we could afford to to pause uh in our tightening they won't commit it but I think the language is going to be totally different from the language we had after uh the last meeting but you just said that's what you think they'll do I want to know what you think they should do well I I thought I I don't think they should raise and I didn't think they should have raised increased last time because the bulk of the monetary tightening the fastest increase in fed funds rates and real rates uh in at least 40 years was showing progress uh you know we talked about the Distortion in in the actual particularly Consumer Price data on and housing I talked about the fact that I thought that the war against wages was uh inappropriate uh we we need to raise wages to bring labor into the labor force and by the way I thought it was a a very promising labor report we had two tick uh two tenths of a percent you know increase in the U2 the U6 unemployment a little bit of a loosening he's going to use that language we see a little bit of a loosening of Labor Market of course tomorrow morning we'll get the initial jobless claims it it certainly did jump up on one week but that that's a volatile series we're going to see what's going to happen tomorrow on that but he could change his story uh looking at the the so to speak slow down side uh rather than only looking at the Troublesome inflation areas and uh uh I think he should have been looking at that slow down side for very many more months so what he should do is not increase at all but I think I think he's going to increase 25 with a very big change in language what's going to be interesting Scott is the dot Cloud because uh normally uh the the bank presidents and the fomc fills it out you know uh one or two weeks beforehand I think it's totally different after svb than before I hope they get them all a chance to revise it because it was going up to six and now if you take a look at the Futures Market it's barely going to five yeah so you know Apollo said today when the facts change my view changes this is from somebody at Apollo torsten's lock a financial accident has happened we're not going we're going from no Landing to a hard Landing the FED will not raise rates next week and we have likely seen the peak in both short and long rates um isn't he right I mean we just had an accident that's actually a quote from John Maynard quick Keynes who said uh when the facts change I change my opinion what do you do sir he once responded um and and I I read tourist and uh Slack's uh comments on that yeah I mean again I think they shouldn't um but uh my my feeling was I'll tell you why I think they're gonna go 25.

02. if they suddenly go zero it could worry the market oh my goodness I mean they're giving up on that are they so worried about the economy that everything they voice and all the opinions they've had over the last six months are down throwing aside I think a more measured way of doing is 25 with a pause um we are seeing progress