저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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결론: 현재 저평가(가치주) 바스켓이 역사적으로 매우 싼 구간이며, 향후 2년 수익률이 시장 대비 크게 높을 가능성이 있다는 주장. 근거 지표: Gotham Yield(잉여현금흐름 수익률 기반 지표)로 미국 시총 상위 1400개 기업 중 저평가 상위 20%를 분석. 현재 약 90분위(싼 구간)이며, 과거 이 수준에서 2년 선행 수익률은 평균 약 59~61%(범위 20~105%). S&P500은 같은 방식으로 28분위(비싼 편)이며, 이 구간의 과거 2년 선행 수익률은 평균 약 17%. 과거 사례: 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴 시 가치주가 시장을 크게 상회, 2009년 금융위기 때 Gotham Yield 24%로 저점. 2020년 3월 고점 구간에선 7.8%. 리스크/조건: 과거 데이터일 뿐 미래 보장 아님. 저평가가 가격에 반영되는 시점은 불확실하며, 가치투자는 타이밍을 맞추지 못할 수 있음. 금리 인상, 경기침체 가능성이 존재. 개인투자자 활용: 개인은 대형 리서치팀을 갖추기 어려워 전문 운용사 방식을 그대로 따라하기 힘듦. 집중 포트폴리오 방식과 바스켓 분산 방식 중 선택 가능. 밸류에이션 작업이 정확하면 결국 시장이 동의한다는 것이 핵심 메시지. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 언급 없음(가치주 바스켓 및 S&P500, 나스닥 비교 중심).
다듬은 글
write today what it says is over the last 30 years right now we're in the 92nd percentile towards Chief and when we've been here the two-year forward return has averaged approximately 61 a once in a lifetime investing opportunity has just begun and Joel Greenblatt a wildly successful investor who made 50 a year sat down for an interview to tell us about where to find it the Easy Money economic environment of the past decade driven by interest rates at zero percent and huge stimulus from the Federal Reserve created an enormous bubble in the financial markets but easy money led to record inflation and the need for the FED to reverse course and jack up interest rates fast and as a result we've seen the bubble in the financial markets finally pop with speculative Investments like cryptocurrency and unprofitable Tech collapsing as much as 80 to 99 and even the broader Market fell as much as 25 in 2022 but it's also pushed a particular group of stocks to have abnormally High average forward returns and today Joel Greenblatt is going to explain what that opportunity is Joel Greenblatt is a fund manager who founded Gotham Asset Management in 1985.
my partner Rob Goldstein joined me in 1989 we ran concentrated value and special situation portfolio for 10 years averaged 50 percent a year returns for that time before our fees they then returned to their Capital to investors and operated for a decade just managing their own money before reopening two clients in 2009.
today Gotham has 3.8 billion dollars of assets under management and over the years Greenblatt has shared his knowledge of investing by teaching at Columbia business school as well as writing a number of books which reflects the variations of his strategies that he's used over the past few decades from you could be a stock market genius which explores his earlier years of concentrated value and special situations to the little book that still beats the market where he discusses his current approach to Value investing greenblood by any broad definition of value investing has been and to this day is a value investor well Russell or Morningstar I have a particular definition and it may involve low price book low price sales and those are merely metrics and and don't really mean anything to me stocks or ownership shares of businesses that we value and try to buy at a discount and companies are valued based on their cash flows over time what are what are the cash flows and what are they expected to be on a normalized basis what are they expected to grow and that's all value is stocks aren't just ticket symbols on a screen they represent a share of ownership in businesses that have assets people and systems that ultimately all come together to produce cash flow you are outlying money today with the expectation that you're going to get more back at some point in the future and how green black specifically gets to the calculation of value for a business has changed over time he started like many value investors by learning the ins and outs of Benjamin Graham's net net strategy which at its core is essentially a strategy of finding very very cheap companies ones that are selling for far less than their liquidation value but his strategy evolved over time to incorporate Warren Buffett's view of stocks and we had evolved over the years pretty quickly towards the way Warren Buffett thinks of the world which is to buy a good business cheap not just cheap but a good business cheap that was really The Twist that Buffett made that made him one of the richest people in the world Buffett's approach was to focus on high quality businesses with predictable future cash flows in fact the whole premise of Joel's second book the little book that beats the market is that if you sort Stocks by their cash flow yield and return on Capital the stocks with the best combination of cheap and high quality would perform best which essentially demonstrates at a statistical level what Buffett has been doing with individual stocks over his career and according to Greenblatt value stocks are poised to perform extremely well over the next few years especially when compared to the broader Market if you're looking at your screen this is uh the website gotham.com it's actually telling us where the we think the market is now based on past history right today what it says is over the last 30 years right now we're in the 92nd percentile towards cheap and when we've been here the two-year forward return has averaged approximately 61 percent he reached this conclusion by taking the 1400 largest U.S publicly listed companies and studying them over the past 30 years when taking the cheapest 20 of those 1400 stocks there's a pretty strong correlation between how cheap the basket of stocks is and the future return of those stocks to assess the cheapness Greenblatt is using a figure that he created called the Gotham yield which is essentially an adjusted version of the free cash flow yield or in even simpler terms he's essentially just comparing the price of the stock to the cash flows that that business has produced in the recent past the higher the yield the cheaper the stocks are in the past 30 years the time when these stocks were the most expensive was March of 2020 when the Gotham yield was 7.8 percent the cheapest for these stocks was in February of 2009 when the Gotham yield was a a whopping 24 percent and that was also the bottom of the stock market in the GFC again we're not looking at all stocks but the 300 ish cheapest out of the 1400 largest and for those stocks the Gotham yield is at 14 putting it in the 90th percentile towards cheap and in the past 30 years when these stocks have had a Gotham yield of about 14 the forward two-year return has been between 20 and 105 percent with an average of 59 and on top of that the future expected return of this basket of cheap stocks is far better than the broader Market give you an idea how that compares to the s p the S P's uh constructed the same way according to our metrics and the 28th percentile towards expensive and when it's been here in the past two-year forward returns have averaged 17 the point here of course isn't that we now know for a certainty that cheap stocks are going to earn 50 or more over the next couple of years after all we're only looking at historical data here which is past performance and of course future performance can vary significantly from what we've seen even over a 30-year study but the point is that historically speaking when there has been such a large spread in the cheapness between value stocks and the S P 500 value has done as a group pretty well Greenblatt also draws a comparison between today's market and the internet bubble in 2000 and in 1998 the market was up uh 28 I believe the number was we were down five percent in 1999 the market was up 21 I think and we were down another five percent in 2000 the market was down I think was nine or ten percent we were up 115 I don't think we were just idiots in 98 99 and all of a sudden Geniuses in 2000 we finally got paid I believe for the work that we did in 98 99 a market finally recognized the value that we saw but it certainly zigden's act differently when the market was swept up in tech companies during 1998 and 99 the market outperformed Greenblatt in both of those years but come 2000 the market fell considerably while his fund made over 100 and while the market broadly continued to struggle for a few years value stocks as a group did extremely well the Common Thread here is that the periods where value did really well especially relative to the S P 500 it began during tough Economic Times in 2000 it was a tech bubble bursting in the recession that followed in 2009 it was the global financial crisis and today it's the pandemic inflation crisis Ukraine war and potentially a recession as interest rates rise so how can the average investor take advantage of this information in their investing in 2023 firstly as a retail investor you probably can't do exactly what Greenblatt does in his fund Gotham Asset Management has a huge team of analysts and researchers who have access to a man much greater amount of resources and its access to those resources that makes assessing and valuing hundreds of companies over time possible we've shifted more to running a big research team with a big Tech team that balances risks and goes long short and just takes advantage of our valuations but that's how we've gone over time then Greenblatt is essentially buying buckets of businesses trading them frequently to adjust for changes in value and aiming to do well on average across the bucket of stocks however Greenblatt didn't always do this and he actually began investing by having a concentrated value portfolio and also looking for special situations and that's a strategy that Greenblatt still believes works today so we used to be very selective and have very concentrated portfolios and do deep dies on everything now we're sort of in the insurance business on average trying to do a great job and buying a bucket of stocks that are going to work out over time in both ways of making money are great if you do good valuation work I guarantee the market will agree with you I just never tell them when there's no timeline on when an undervalued stock needs to revert to its value but if you are right on the valuation then the market will eventually agree with you follow
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