저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 코로나 사태가 세계 최대 금융 버블을 터뜨린 핀이 될 수 있으며, 2008년보다 큰 금융위기와 달러 신뢰 붕괴 및 금 가격 상승을 전망한다. 경제 전망: 미국은 부채가 가장 많아 가장 취약하며, 저축 없이 월급에 의존하는 가계가 한 번 소득이 끊기면 연쇄 부도와 금융위기로 이어질 것으로 본다. 연준이 과거처럼 구제하기 어렵고 오히려 달러를 파괴해 통화·국가부채 위기를 부를 것이라고 주장한다. 정책·정치: 트럼프 재선에 대해 경기침체가 겹치면 패배할 가능성이 크다고 보며, 증시 하락이 트럼프 재선 가능성을 낮춘다고 주장한다. 바이든 당선 시 증세·규제 강화·재정적자 확대가 예상되므로 시장이 이를 과소평가하고 있다고 말한다. 샌더스 대비 바이든이 덜 나쁘다는 시각도 밝힌다. 달러·금: 달러가 기축통화 지위를 잃을 것으로 보며, 금본위 시대로 회귀하는 흐름과 각국 중앙은행의 금 매입 증가를 근거로 든다. 금 가격은 1670달러 수준에서도 훨씬 더 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 금융 통제·디지털화: 금융기관의 감시 강화로 프라이버시와 금융 자유가 사라지고 있으며, 규제 비용 때문에 금 결제 등 실물 활용이 어려워졌다고 본다. 가상자산은 규제로 거래소가 사라지거나 지하화될 수 있다고 전망한다. 종목·자산 언급: 금(강세 전망), 금광주(기회 큼, 소형 광산주는 위험 높음), 미국 달러(보유 위험), 비트코인 등 암호화폐(부정적, 규제 우려), 미국 국채·채권시장(버블, 붕괴 가능성 언급). 인플레이션 대비 스위스·싱가포르·뉴질랜드·노르웨이 통화 자산과 방어주 배분을 권한다. 조건/리스크: 경기침체 지속, 연준 구제 한계, 정치 변화가 핵심 조건이며 본인 펀드 홍보 성격이 강하다. 출연자는 자산배분 조언자이자 금 펀드 운용 홍보자다.
다듬은 글
Jew politics an empire is joined by economist financial broker author and podcaster Peter Schiff to talk about the current state of the economy in light of the coronavirus hysteria and what may be the popping of the biggest financial bubble in the history of the world mr. Schiff many are calling the coronavirus the Black Swan that we've all been waiting for you're saying that this is the pin that is going to or has already perhaps pricked the greatest financial bubble in the history of the world the Federal Reserve just had a meeting issuing a historic rate cut to stave off the collapse of the stock of stock market and your warning of an even bigger bubble in bonds is this the real deal and is 2020 the year we see the sequel to the 2008 global financial crisis yeah you know it looks that way you know who would have known that the pin for this bubble would end up being a virus right but you never know but bubbles always find their pins and you know looks like this one found one but what's happening now is not because the coronavirus is you know that's the pin the problem is the bubble that the pin just pricked and so at this point I'm not even sure and you know it matters as much about what happens with the virus I mean it matters certainly health-wise and the people who were affected by it but I think in the scheme of things I think the bubble is already pricked you know regardless of what happened to the pin I think the air is gonna come out between the economies of the US the EU and and China who do you think will be hit the hardest and what consequences you see as a results of of the popping of the bubble around the world well I think the u.s.
I mean the biggest problem is the countries that have the most debt because they're the most vulnerable the most susceptible to an economic downturn you know think about it in terms of a household if you know you have a lot of savings let's say you know household you have you know a year or two worth of income saved if you lose your job well it's not a complete disaster you have money in the bank you can make your mortgage payment you can make your car payment while you're looking for another job but if you have nothing saved and you're living paycheck to paycheck and you miss one paycheck you can't make your mortgage payment you can't you know make your car payment and not only does that impact you but that impacts the guy that was expecting to receive or the finance institution that was looking to get that mortgage payment or that car payment so it really has big ramifications and that's the US economy I mean you've got all these companies thanks to the Fed that have lots of debt if their revenue goes down because of a temporary problem well they have to make payments on their debt but what if they can't do that well there's a default but what about the other side of that loan that was expecting to get the money now it doesn't get the money and now these businesses have to start laying off workers but again the workers don't have any savings they're like I said living paycheck to paycheck now they can't make their payments they can't pay their bills they can't pay their car payments or their mortgages or their credit card bills so now what happens you have a complete implosion you have another financial crisis we are set up for a bigger financial crisis now than the one we had in 2008 because we have so much more debt now than we had then and if you could tell us a little bit more of how do you see this this playing out we are we all experienced that you know the two thousand seven eight nine crisis banks going bust how do you see this playing out you know there's going to be like 1929 again or something even worse no I think it's gonna be worse because I don't think the Fed has the ability to bail us out again you know I think it's at this point when they try and they will try they're just going to destroy the dollar they're gonna create a currency and then a sovereign debt crisis so I think instead of people fleeing to the dollar like they did in a 8 they're gonna flee from the dollar and so it's going to just really compound the problems you you see this you know some of the the politics of President Trump and as well as this crisis being a catalyst perhaps for the return of US manufacturing no there's no manufacturing returning to the US I mean that was all a myth I mean that's never happened to me manufacturing was in a slump even before the corona Pryor's and now it's gonna be an even bigger slump and what do you think this means for President Trump and what do you make of James Woods is recent comment that quite interesting that Joe Biden will choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate who could eventually replace Biden as president if Biden has to step down for health reasons so how do you think this will be this year's elections well I don't know who by it is gonna choose for VP I miss he's going to choose the person who's most likely to help him which is generally what happens and maybe amy klobuchar you know as a woman that i think has more appeal than hillary I mean Hillary has a lot of problems I don't think Klobuchar has those problems obviously the Clintons have the connections and they have a lot of clout but I think a better way to put Hillary in office would be to have somebody more palatable on the ticket now and then Biden could resign or Klobuchar could become president and then she gets to pick who she wants for vice president then maybe she could pick Hillary then she could resign but I doubt she would give up power when she had it I don't know but I mean I it's going to be a political decision but what I do think and I think the markets haven't even digested this is that while Sanders was clearly worse than Biden and a Sanders presidency would be a much bigger disaster for the markets and the economy than Biden Biden is still a disaster and the reality is Biden will win if we're in a recession see Sanders was so radical that it was possible that Trump could get reelected even if the economy was in a recession now he may not if it was kind of maybe a toss-up but I think if we are in a recession in November Biden wins I mean I don't think there's any way Trump can get reelected if the economy is in a recession when people go to the polls so that's what nobody is preparing for and it should become a self-fulfilling prophecy for the markets because obviously if we're in a recession we're probably also going to be in a bear market and Trump's claim to fame I mean his own barometer of success is the level of the stock market and if the stock market is way down when he you know people are voting then obviously you know his presidency was a failure if by his own standard you judged the effectiveness of a presidency by the level of the stock market so as the stock market Falls the likelihood of Trump getting reelected Falls with it and then people should be selling stock because if you think the stock market is up because of corporate tax cuts you gonna have hikes if Biden wins if you think the market is rising because of deregulation well you're gonna have a lot more regulation if Biden is elected and of course if you're worried about budget deficits they're gonna be much bigger even though there are record highs now they're going to be even bigger when by does president so there's a lot of things that the markets are overlooking that they should be worried about and what are your thoughts perhaps just to continue that train of thought on the the paralysis and gridlock that we're seeing in the US this is a soft kind of civil war you're someone who's been outspoken on the topics of capitalism and socialism and what do you make there was interesting comment by the former New York New York City Police Commissioner who said that he considers socialism now to be a bigger threat to the US than even Islamist terrorism what are your thoughts on what's happening in the u.s.
oh yeah I mean socialism is always a big threat that's the problem with democracy I mean every democracy in the history of the world has to come to socialism in one form or another you know I mean that's the problem and that's that's what the founding fathers were worried about when they established the u.s.
as a republic they didn't want it to be a democracy because they were worried about democracies because the public will vote for socialism and that's what's happening it's happening in America socialism is getting more and more popular because people want free stuff you know people want stuff they didn't earn they want to take things from other people and you know and and and socialism appeals to greed and envy which are some of the lowest human emotions but we all have them and the problem is you know socialism creeps into the economy in a way that it undermines the economy and therefore ironically the appeal of socialism because as the economy becomes less capitalistic and more socialistic you create poverty and larger disparities in between the poor and the rich and that feeds on itself and then you have politicians who blame the plight of the poor the MIT or the or the use of the middle class on capitalism when it is not capitalism it is the socialism that is already crept into the system and then the solution that the politicians hold for these problems is we need even more socialism until eventually you go you know full Turkey you know you go all-in right and that's where we're headed with you know like Bernie Sanders or maybe aoc I mean Sanders is obviously not going to be the nominee in 2020 but aoc maybe in 2024 now you mentioned the flight away from the dollar I know you're not a fan of cryptocurrency I believe but what do you think and we'll probably see as you've mentioned before flight into other assets such as gold but do you ever see the US dollar losing its world reserve status and what could possibly challenge it well I do believe that the dollar will lose that status but I do not think that some other currency is going to simply you know fill the void prior to the dollar being the reserve currency gold was the reserve for all currencies and I think we're just going to return to that dynamic I mean that's you know the reason that the dollar became the reserve currency was because not only was it backed by gold but it was redeemable into gold so you could take your Federal Reserve notes and hand them in and they would give you gold at a fixed exchange rate and and so we eventually severed that link and that was the problem and now we're you know dealing with the consequences but I think that the world is simply going to return to a sounder reserve system where a paper currencies are backed by real money gold I mean that's how it was supposed to be and that's how it's going to be again in the future and I think that is why you're seeing central banks around the world continuing to increase their holdings of gold because they are preparing for the demise of the dollar and the romana ties ation of gold and you've often recommended folks protect themselves through real assets and as you say gold and I'd like to get your thoughts perhaps and a few more recommendations of how people can protect themselves but one of my biggest concerns is the during or after this crisis the collapse of perhaps financial and some political institutions and the danger we may face with our financial accounts you know the UN recently has urging people to stop using cash and to use digital contactless payments some say the coronavirus crisis will help shift us towards more towards a cashless society I've been a fan of gold money which allows you to hold real allocated a gold kind of in the digital form you're an advisor there but something recently interesting happened with my account it was frozen for review which I suppose is a good thing my account was reinstated after everything checked out but the head of gold money Rosie bag made comments on Twitter that financial institutions are increasingly being forced by regulators to use tools such which surveil their clients I guess he was alluding to like the clients social media political and other views that that flagged people on this basis and he kind of warned between the lines that there's this kind of Chinese social credit type system slowly coming to the west and so I'm kind of afraid of that and and you have any thoughts in this development as a result of the crisis yeah I mean look this is happening I'm in the banking business as well and you know we really unfortunately made a major mistake following September 11th and I was a big critic of the Patriot Act when it passed and and letting the camels nose under the tent but the amount of surveillance now in the financial industry is off the charts you know right out of George Orwell 1984 and basically everybody that oversees any type of financial transactions has to basically spy on everybody it cost a fortune and if you don't do it you face very harsh criminal penalties so yeah there is no privacy or real financial freedom anymore anywhere in the world and everybody is under a microscope and yeah that's that really helped undermine gold money's business model of really monetizing gold and having people using gold as a medium of exchange because in order to do the transactions which you know the technology is there to do it very simply it's very easy for people to spend gold and use gold as being exchanged it's just that the regulatory costs of complying with these rules and regulations makes it prohibitively expensive to do so that's why gold money kind of just retreated into hey well we'll buy your gold you can hold it you can store it but you know hey don't use it to pay your electric bill because the you know they're making it too expensive but the same thing that's gonna happen with crypto currencies I mean I mean the regulations that are gonna be coming I mean not put these things we're gonna succeed anyway they wouldn't but they're gonna tighten it so bad I think all the exchanges will eventually be out of business I mean or it's gonna cut its gonna have their got to charge such a high fee to buy and sell these things that it's gonna make the transactions prohibitively expensive for people to engage in but and they may even just outlaw them outright I mean so the whole thing would have to go underground you know into you know and people would have to risk harsh criminal penalties if they got caught you know with any any Bitcoin or other digital courtesy I mean all that stuff could be coming alright is there anything else you feel important to mention or any final thoughts to leave us with as we go into 2020 yeah you just be careful I mean this bubble is gonna pop there's a lot of air in it people should be buying gold don't be afraid that you've missed the boat because for it you know 1670 we're going much much higher the real money I think is in the gold stocks they're still giving these things away because people still have no idea how high the price of gold is cult is going you know my goal fund I got a five star gold fund I think I have the best manager in the business got an excellent track record Adrian day EP GFX is my goal fund people should just buy that goodbye to Schwab fidelity II tre you can go directly to my website your Pacific funds com get a prospectus buy read online my goal fund you know I think we're just gonna kill it I think we're gonna you know beat every other fund out there because I think Adrian actually knows how to pick gold stocks I mean most managers have no idea what they're doing the space is so under owned you know it's been in a bear market for so long that there's no real good analysts in the space so I think we have a real edge and so I think my fund is going to dramatically outperform you know the indexes and it's very hard you know for people who don't really know the sector to know which of the junior miners to buy and which ones to avoid because some are going to go to zero but some can go up you know 50 I'm so you know you got to know so I think there's a there's a lot of opportunity for people who can take the risk I think the upside is way worth it and then even for people who are just you know don't want to take the risk of the mining stocks they have to realize that they're taking a big risk just holding US dollars and they got to get out that inflation is coming it's going to be rather dramatic it's going to wipe a lot of people out so we're helping clients create portfolios with assets in Switzerland Singapore New Zealand Norway places where I think the currencies will do a much better job of holding their value and we're buying good quality defensive stocks for people where they can get income that they could you know live on so people who are retiring near retirement age or in retirement need to be thinking of inflation and the risks of a collapse of the US dollar in the US bond market and doing something now to guard against those risk which they can do you know by contacting you know my company your Pacific capital our website is Europe a calm and talk to our broker about transferring an account over and you know getting your portfolio you know really crash proofed or inflation proofed and listen to my podcasts I mean I'm doing a lot of podcast now chef radio comm or on my youtube channel just to you know keep abreast of what's going on because you're not going to get the truth if you're just getting your news from the mainstream media yeah and decides the podcast house I recommend checking out Peter chefs books I know some years ago when I was teaching a university in Mexico I was teaching various courses in political science and I was actually assigning some chapters from your books to my students so yeah my most recent one is the real crash America's coming bankruptcy and I think we're headed for the real crime now I hope you enjoyed this geopolitics and Empire podcast and interview I would like to remind you that our website is geopolitics and Empire calm and you can sign up for our mailing list that goes out each weekend with the latest podcast and a long collection of important news headlines it's good to sign up for the newsletter in case we experience censorship and the platforming you can help the geopolitics and Empire podcast by subscribing to and interacting with all of our channels such as YouTube Twitter Facebook gap minds and steam it you can also help us by leaving a rating and you and your favorite podcast platform such as iTunes cashbox stitcher Spreaker and so on finally if you value our work and our mission and would like to see us continue interviewing experts from across the political spectrum please consider leaving a one-time donation via PayPal or Bitcoin or becoming a regular monthly supporter on our patreon all the links can be found on geopolitics and Empire com thanks for listening
Comments 0