Ray Dalio's Economic Machine

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Ray Dalio는 경제를 거래 기계로 보고 단기(약 5~8년)·장기 부채 사이클로 설명하며, 현재 미국은 유동성 확대 후 중간 단계(긴축 전·안정기)에 있어 주식의 기대수익률이 약 4% 수준으로 낮아졌고 향후 평탄하거나 하락할 가능성이 크다고 주장한다. 미국: 양적완화로 자산가격이 크게 올라 향후 기대수익률이 낮아졌고, 현금 약 1%, 채권 약 3%, 주식 약 4% 수준이다. 2004~2006년처럼 지루한 중간기로 보며 '이제 아래로 갈 수밖에 없다'는 취지로 말한다. 유럽(남유럽): 부채가 소득보다 빠르게 늘어난 부채 버블 상태이며 통화정책으로 대응하지 못해 장기 침체(디프레션)가 이어질 것으로 본다. ECB의 추가 완화가 필요하다고 본다. 중국: 부채가 소득 대비 빠르게 증가해 긴축 통화정책이 필요한 국면이라고 본다. 전반적으로 막대한 유동성과 과잉 설비에 따른 디플레이션 압력이 동시에 존재하며, 장기 부채·미적립 부채가 돈을 잠식한다고 본다. 시청자에게 'The Economic Machine' 영상 시청을 권한다. 언급 종목·자산 방향: 미국 주식시장(S&P500 등)은 기대수익이 낮고 향후 평탄 후 하락 가능성, 개별 종목 언급 없음.

다듬은 글

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01. big guest uh right now the head of the world's largest hedge fund joins us in an exclusive interview Ray doio is the founder president and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates Bridgewater currently has $150 billion in assets under management Ray were throw the Hat good morning um you have been on our show several times now and we have we have started dialogue around what you call the economic machine it's it's your theory of how you see the marketplace the world the economy uh it's been praised by people like vulker and Bill Gates and other people like that and part of my understanding of the theory is that there are short-term cycles and long-term Cycles the long-term cycle I would argue is probably bad given the amount of debt that we're just building but when you think about the short-term cycles and where we are now when you start thinking about the US and Asia and Europe how do how do you see your economic machine applied to those markets uh well the first thing I'm I'm going to get to answer your question in a minute but in a second but I I do want to convey that I think that we go so quickly to try to think what's the economy going to do next year without agreeing on how the machine works and the economy works like a machine and the only reason I'm doing this interview and only reason I did that video how the economic Machine Works is so that to draw attention to how does it work because if we can agree on how it works then so many other things come from that so that's we'll talk about what I think is happening now and so on but within the context of that the the economic machine is nothing more than a transactions very simple thing if I buy something from you I can buy it for money or I can buy it for credit and when I buy it for credit over a period of time a credit is a promise to deliver money right and so we begin a cycle and in that cycle uh there are two cycles around income at the end of the day you can only spend what you earn but that's not TR true over the short run because you can borrow money and so around that income growth is our debt Cycles and there's a short-term debt cycle which we call the business cycle we're used to recessions expansions and then tightening of monetary policy and recessions again and with that also produces Market Cycles around that so I'd like to put where we are in the context of that sorry for that background but at least we can then look at the world that way so now um where the US is because it could print money print money means the purchase of financial assets Financial assets went up a lot and as a result of the them going up a lot future expected returns went down a lot so the return of equities has gone down to probably about 4% and which is by the way in line with cash being about 1% bonds being about 3% return of equities about 4% so that liquidity has has H happened we are now in the middle of the short-term debt cycle in other words you're out of the recession and you're not into yet the tightening those middle periods are kind of the boring years you you know they're the years like 2004 and 6 you forget that they even existed what happened in 2004 and 6 you never remember 20078 you remember so we're in that kind of period in the United States what Europe now the markets went up incredibly between 2003 four five and six right no 2 the equity Market no no 2004 five and six were boring years markets didn't do anything were they flat they started going into the they were flat they started moving into the financial had the returns the returns in each one those years were single digit returns hardly doing anything boring we had 15 years of nothing almost no but I'm also referring those particular years in other words you take 2000 2000 was a period we had the recession we have the thing then you pump it with liquidity then you get the bull market the big bull market in equities and then in that middle period when things are not too tight or too loose then you have that period so that's where the United States is I would suggest we can only go down from here mean flat and then down no no no you're you're in that middle that means that the central bank's got leeway not too tight let me but that's where we are and that's also means probably pretty boring for equities also you look at the return there was a big gap between cash returns and bond returns and Equity expected returns if you look at yields what would the expected yield be and that normalized I'm just talking about the US now let's go to Europe cu the by the way all these countries are in very different parts of their cycle which is the interesting thing so now now uh Europe southern Europe because it could not print money could not um have the same reactions that we could could not have that response and as a result what happened is they were in a debt bubble meaning their debts were Rising faster than the income if there's one thing to pay attention to is debt Rising faster than income is debt Rising faster than income if if debt is rising faster than income it can't do it forever and it won't do it and if it's doing it fast for a long time you're going to have a bubble the United States debt is not Rising faster than income now equilibrium and and I'm talking not government debt I'm talking about the total debt if you take all the sectors of the economy in Europe what it was Rising much faster than income and unsustainable so you couldn't fund it if you look at who buys the bonds they wouldn't buy the bonds there's not enough money to so they need they had a funding Gap they needed to have an adjustment to bring debt right down to income right right now what happens is in terms of there's there's they only have to roll over the yet they don't have to sell a lot more than they sold before and so that's an easier thing to do and so but that's a depressed economy in because you can't Finance it on debt so they are in a chronic depressions essentially depressions that will remain there and then there's a fiscal policy and monetary policy the ECB will have to ease another monetary policy but a very different position in the cycle now take China totally different position so China is in the part of the cycle where they need to tighten the debt is rising very fast relative to income particularly certain sectors of that debt and so you what you're having is a tightening of monetary policy and you need to have a tightening of monetary policy now all the markets and all the economies are connected so what does that mean okay it means that we're in in brief we have a world in which we have an enormous amount of liquidity liquidity means that people want to buy Financial assets so we build up the prices of financial assets and they're they're not too high they're not too low they seem to be appropriate but we also have a lot of longer term debt you were referring to that that longer term debt means it eats money in other words it requires money to pay for it we have a lot of liabilities they unfunded liabilities beyond the debt that eats money and we also have a world in which there's excess capacity a lot of the capacity was built in China a lot of the capacity was built in the world around the world that produces a deflationary pressures so we're in a world with a lot of liquidity and also a lot of also deflationary pressures existing at the same time I want everybody if they can though to do watch this half hour video how the economic machine works I'm here at Davos with policy makers and we are discussing the most important the central banks and so on and it is all around that it's 30 minutes and if they can people can understand that I think it would help help them a lot okay great D thank you that video is on YouTube we should tell everybody so you can