저자: Edward · 외국인
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결론: 2016년 비트코인 가격이 2013년 고점을 넘는 사상 최고가를 경신할 가능성이 크며, 이는 비트코인 대강세장의 다음 단계 진입 신호라는 주장이다. [펀더멘털] 자본통제와 베일인(bail-in) 위험 증가가 비트코인 수요의 핵심 동인이다. 2013년 키프로스에서 예금자 손실 최대 약 40%(은행 주식 전환)가 발생했고, 그리스는 하루 60유로 인출 한도 등 자본통제를 유지 중이다. 유럽 은행 회생·정리 지침(BRRD)이 2016년 1월 1일 시행되며, 2014년 11월 G20이 예금을 은행 자본구조로 분류하는 정책에 합의했다. 그리스 부재무장관은 2016년 1분기 자본통제 해제를 언급했으나, 발표자는 이것이 베일인 준비 신호라고 해석했다. 스페인·포르투갈·이탈리아도 위험군으로 언급했다. 중국은 위안화 절하, 금리·지급준비율 인하 후 자본유출 통제를 강화할 것으로 보이며, 이는 비트코인 대규모 유입 요인이다. 호주의 예금 과세 루머도 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. 중앙은행 개입의 효력 약화(연준의 9월 금리인상 보류, 중국 인하, ECB 추가 부양 시사)와 CBOE 스큐지수 상승(하방 꼬리 위험 증가), 2015년 9월 FOMC 위원 2명의 마이너스 금리 주장이 법정화폐 이탈과 비트코인 자본유입을 촉진할 것으로 봤다. 반감기: 2016년 7월경 채굴 보상이 25BTC에서 12.5BTC로 절반 감소하며 공급이 줄어든다. 시장은 2016년 1분기 말~2분기에 이를 선반영할 것으로 예상했다. 벤처캐피털: 비트코인 기업에 10억 달러 이상 투자되어 거래소·지갑·결제·금융·채굴 인프라가 다변화되고 자금 유입이 쉬워지고 있다. [기술적 분석] 2년간 하락 채널 상단 돌파가 대량 거래량을 동반했다. 160~170달러에서 두 번 투매 후 반등한 이중바닥 형성은 매수 압력과 롱 진입의 위험보상비를 개선한다. 이 돌파가 2015년 말까지 유지되면 2016년 고가 전망을 뒷받침한다. [시장 심리] 비트코인 가격과 구글 검색량이 강한 상관관계를 보이며, 500달러 도달 후 검색량이 60~70% 증가했다. 주류 언론 보도가 신규 자금 유입을 촉발하며 2016년에 더 강해질 것으로 봤다. [리스크] 정부가 비트코인으로의 자본유출에 어떻게 대응할지 불확실하며, 이 점이 유일한 단서 조항이다. 자본유출 규제 확대가 가격 급등을 촉발할 수도 있으나 정책 반응에 따라 결과가 크게 달라질 수 있다. [출연자 전망] 2016년 비트코인 사상 최고가 경신을 낙관하며, 반감기 전후 및 자본통제 확산을 상승 촉매로 본다.
다듬은 글
Oh hi everybody Edward here from renegade investor dog coat UK and today we're going to be talking about why I personally believe that the Bitcoin price has good potential of hitting all-time highs in 2016 and why we are about to begin the next stage of this bull market that could take the Bitcoin price well beyond the highs last seen in late 2013 well as the price is only one factor to look at in regards to the hell for the Bitcoin network is an extremely important metric that drives massive interest in Bitcoin as a whole without a doubt the last two years have been very challenging for investors in the alternate investment space not only have we seen a prolonged consolidation in the precious metal space with gold hovering between a thousand thirteen hundred range after pulling back from its nineteen hundred dollar high and silver hovering in the mid teens after I run up to fifty dollars in 2011 but we have also seen a prolonged bear market consolidation in the Bitcoin price over the last two years following the parabolic run-up in the Bitcoin price to a high of 12 hundred and forty two dollars in late 2013 although this dramatic drop in price had a very negative effect on sentiment in the Bitcoin space especially with people that don't understand the long-term fundamentals that are driving Bitcoin adoption I personally believe that just like gold and silver bitcoin is in a much larger secular bull market trend that could last multiple decades and that the recent bear market in bitcoin is just a natural consolidation in the price before the main bull market trend regimes in order to create the kind of powerful bull market we saw a Bitcoin in 2013 the market needs three different attributes to align simultaneously so the first is fundamental is the main reason that justify and drive the intrinsic value of the underlying asset the second is technical as a way of evaluating an investment based off of previous price volume and market statistics to predict future price direction the third is market tone which is the overall attitude of investors towards a particular asset or market and so today we're going to look at all three of these points individually to see why all of these may be about to align to create it next stage of the bull market in Bitcoin and why this could bring an all-time high in the price of Bitcoin in 2016 so the first thing we're going to take a look at is fundamentals that will drive the bitcoin price in 2016 and the main ones in my opinion are the growing risk of capital controls and bail ins worldwide the reason why these are two of the main fundamental reasons driving the value and price of Bitcoin today is because people look to Bitcoin to escape counterparty risks associated with lexie banking systems and fiat currencies like we saw with the bailing of depositors back in team where in some cases depositors with over a hundred thousand euros took almost a 40-percent haircut on their deposits which was converted into bank stock in order to shore up bank balance sheets and the capital controls we saw recently in Greece in response to their ongoing debt crisis where citizens still to this day are limited to just 60 euros a day withdrawal limits as well as other conditions history has shown that these events can have a huge effect on the Bitcoin price and they look set to worsen and spread too much bigger economies in 2016 one of the main reasons why I believe this is going to happen is because on the 16th of November 2014 the g20 agreed to implement similar policies like those used in Cyprus to classify the pauses as part of a commercial banks capital structure essentially eliminating private ownership of money held in banks these proposals look set to expand from the first of January 2016 when the EU is implementing a directive called the EU bank recovery and resolution directive which looks set to create a framework for using balans to shore up failing financial institutions in the eurozone area using customers deposits as collateral the very fact that this type of legislation is being implemented likely indicates that governments and central banks could be expecting a large-scale 2008 type crisis in 2016 the first potential use of new legislations come from that EU bank recovery and resolution directive could happen in Greece and evidence of support is for you came from a statement made by Deputy Finance Minister George huia arcus on october 21st 2016 when he stated the expectation is that if the economic environment remains stable capital controls can be lifted in the first quarter of 2016 first of all there is no chance that the economic and will be stable and grease at this point and secondly the time frame stated q1 of 2016 coincides directly with the implementation of the EU bank recovery and resolution directive this leads me to believe that the capital controls currently in place in Greece are there to ensure that the maximum amount of deposits are in place for a potential bailing of bank two pulses at the beginning of 2016 if this were to happen I would expect a big move upwards in the price of Bitcoin in addition to this other countries in the euro zone area such as Spain Portugal and Italy all have similar debts GDP levels of Greece and the posters in these countries could also find themselves subject to the bailing frame were proposed in this new directive another indication that capital controls are about to go mainstream in much more developed countries is recent news that following Chinese devaluation of the yuan by the lowering of interest rates for the sixth time in a year and another reduction in their rates reserve ratio which stays the amount of reserves bank should hold China is looking to expand capital controls to stop you on outflows from the country by targeting underground banking operations and by making it more expensive for investors to speculate on the you on the effect this could have on bitcoin is best summed up by a recent post on zero hedge on the twenty-fifth of October when I quote if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use Bitcoin as a capital control by passing currency of choice and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the 22 trillion dollars in Chinese deposits into Bitcoin whose total market cap at last check was just over 3 billion sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the Bitcoin bubble one which could make the previous all-time highs in the digital currency seem like a low print other noticeboard tax on the posters that could affect Bitcoin adoption in a positive way is rumors that Australia is planning a tax on bank deposits starting the january first 2016 if these contribution and it's implemented without major pushback from depositors then this could also become a template for other major nations around the world to bring in similar legislation these actions if they can't afford make Bitcoin bid as we move into 2016 in the last few months alone we began see an increasing rate of intervention from the last remaining backstop at the glow financial system the central banks this indicates that the half life of central bank intervention in the markets is deteriorating at an ever-increasing pace not only did the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in september-october after forward guidance at a rate hike would likely happen in key free of this year which indicates that they have no belief or ability to pour the US economy out of the pending recession but we've also seen a central bank of china the pboc cut interest rates for a sip time in a year and also reserve rate requirements to allow Chinese banks to extend more credits keep the markets prod tub in addition to this we've also seen Mary Draghi of the ECB hinting at more stimulus for evilly extension or expansion of QE policies in the EU going forward one indicator the bag subtus fury that investors are losing confidence in the central bank's is the CBOE skew index which measures the risk of sharp downside movements and potential Black Swan events in the S&P 500 index throughout september-october we have seen a big rise in the index which indicates that traders see an increased chance of more downside risk in this market another really important data point to look at is increasing prospect of negative interest rates in the US following the September 2015 Federal Open Market Committee where two members of this committee actually believed that interest rates should go negative by the end of 2015 the prospect of negative interest rates along with the increasing easing of monetary policy and currency debasement the road over from central banks as we move into 2016 could finally destroy confidence that artificial stimulus can ever be wound down this could begin a massive rotation out of fiat currencies and increase capital inflows into Bitcoin in 2016 as people look to preserve purchasing power another key fundamental I could have a dramatic effect on the increase in the price of Bitcoin 2016 is he having of the Bitcoin mining reward which will reduce the overall supply of bitcoins being created by 50% this happens every four years and the next currencies due to happen around July of 2016 and we'll drop the Bitcoin mining award from 25 bitcoins every 10 minutes to 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes a good place to track this countdown is on the Bitcoin Club com website shown here by the economic laws of supply and demand if the supply has and the man continues to increase due to other reasons discussed in this video then we can expect a big increase in the price of Bitcoin to compensate for the drop in supply one thing to know is that the Bitcoin market would likely begin to price in the having event before the actual event occurs I believe this will happen in late q1 into q2 of next year so the last fundamental we're going to take a look at that could help support an all-time high in a Bitcoin price in 2016 is the large amount of venture capital that is going into Bitcoin companies which in turn are creating the infrastructure and services that support investment into Bitcoin back in 2013 the Bitcoin infrastructure was still in its infancy we've only a couple of main exchanges we could purchase Bitcoin this severely hindered capital flowing into Bitcoin and led to a large degree of concentrated risk however as we head into 2016 year man a venture capital that has been invested into Bitcoin companies has just topped over a billion dollars and all aspects of the Bitcoin infrastructure from exchanges to wallets payment processing financial services and mining is becoming more and more diverse the fact that so much money is moving into the development of services for the Bitcoin network and the fact that is getting easier and easier to move money into Bitcoin as an important fundamental that will potentially help facilitate an all-time high Bitcoin price in 2016 so next we're going to take a look at is the 10 cores which are an important contributing attribute to any bull market run like we saw in 2013 and at the moment they are indicating potentially much higher prices in the short and medium term whilst there are a million different ways you can carry out technical analysis on a char the main technical indicator I am currently looking at but could be indicating that we have finished this long bear market consolidation in the price it's the fact that we have just broken at the top of this two year long down trend channel marked by the red and blue lines on the chart and it was broken on heavy buying volume highlighted by the yellow circle on the right the breaking of this downtrend channel is very significant as it provides investors and traders with confidence that the likelihood of the price increasing at this point far outweighs potential downside risk and this could ignite not just new investment into Bitcoin from people who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a bottom in a price before investing but it could also flip the trade direction of the momentum traders who simply trade the dominant direction of the market another noteworthy technical indicator that could on the bit for next exchange shown on the chart was the formation of something called a double bottom where price capitulated and hit around 160 170 dollar mark on two separate occasions before strongly rebounding not only do these capitulation loads remove the weak hands from the market it also sends a signal to investors in Bitcoin that there is a lot of buying pressure add these price levels and indicates a much better risk/reward perspective for going long on the market if this break out front downtrend sustains itself for the rest of 2015 we could see a technical picture that will help support the outlook for much higher Bitcoin prices as we head into 2016 the last attribute we're going to look how which could help push Bitcoin to all-time highs in 2016 is market tone the overall attitude of investors towards the market and this attribute is really important because when market time becomes positive due to strengthening of both the technical and fundamentals of the market it often brings a new wave of liquidity into the market from new investors which is what causes these parabolic spikes in the Bitcoin price you can see from this chart that compares the price of Bitcoin of google trends that when the Bitcoin price spikes you see a strong correlation with the amount of Bitcoin search terms and we have seen a sixty to seventy percent increase in searches since the most recent price climbed to five hundred dollars what on the main drivers of Margot turn in my opinion is the media coverage of price action and Bitcoin especially in the mainstream media that many rito investors how exposure to on a daily basis like we have seen recently with the Bitcoin price pushing up to a high five hundred dollars it brought a bit a series of mainstream headlines that quickly creates hype and it highlights just how quick sense one can change in this market and I believe this will only get stronger as we head into 2016 so that completes a list of the main reasons why personally believe you will see an all-time high Bitcoin price in 2016 the only caveat I'm going to put on this video is the uncertainty of how governments will react to increasing capital outflows into Bitcoin that could quickly escalate
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