원문 보기
this week then we had the biggest oil shock in over a decade half of Saudi Arabia's production taking out like nothing cheap phones did it but now only a few days later it boils a goner yet now for gas is a goner the whole complex is becoming uninvested right before our very eyes and that is the lesson of this week the attack on Saudi Arabia initially caused the price of crude the blip up from the mid fifties to the mid sixties now it's back to 58 is this there's never been an attack at all when you look at the five-year West Texas poor we curb which is the way to really judge pricing what you can pay for it out a few years it barely budged it was in $50 before the drone strike didn't responsive with the 52 that's it why can't the oil complex get any lift whether you got a combination of powerful forces hold me back from conservation efforts the slowing economy to the battle for supply of crude in the Permian Basin a vast repository of oil in West Texas that's pushing American production up from 12 million barrels a day to 17 million in a not too distant future you know that a decade ago as a 5 million the market to begin hand all that new supply from America which is why oil so darn cheap in the out-years much of the oil and gas in the Permian has been effectively trapped by a lack of pipelines but recently new pipe has being completed and now they can bring that oil and that natural gas right to the marketplace and that's the main reason why the attack on Saudi Arabia barely registered with the oil market for more than a day I mean sooner or later that Permian is gonna replace their supply but that's just the tip of the iceberg earlier this week San Jose California the tenth largest city in America banned natural gas in most new residential buildings beginnings are less sure the trying to crack down on greenhouse emissions and natural gas is a used methane spewer San Jose it's not the first thing to do it's just the largest now this barely notice news is huge for the complex it tells us the 50-knot belongs to renewable fuels less than a decade ago we had major players in the industry like the late or BRE McLennan of Chesapeake Energy or the reason who sees boone pickens who picked natural push snatch yes as a cheaper cleaner bridge fuel than coal or oil something could be even used to power cars trucks but the bridge fuel was a bridge too far it didn't happen naturally his vehicles never really caught on meanwhile even though utilities are phasing out coal they're reluctant to build new natural gas plants when they can build solar dor-win instead by the way that's a major reason why GG's power division is still struggling the older money managers who were used to Middle East shocks pushing prices up dramatically well they live in hope that the energy complex will make a comeback relative to the stock market it's about as low as it's ever been many wealth service types are now trading well below where they were when crude was in 26 bucks half of where it is why I have a theory younger portfolio managers believe that oil and gas are the new coal despite the Saudi fires despite a president wants to give car companies a break to relax fuel efficiency standards these stocks have become pariahs if you take climate change seriously and most younger people do including our portfolio managers it's hard to believe in the long-term health of this industry my child will trust and follow along at Action Alerts plus calm join the club well this week took a brutal loss on the stock of slumber Shea that's one of the best companies under this deal your service space I can't believe he sold the stock so much lower than where it was trading when oil was in half of these levels but after a major supply shock failed to move the forward curve we simply can't expect the oil companies to be aggressive long term and that's exactly what you need if you're relying on an oil service company to make your money if you weren't anyway else here's my advice I would scale back alarm if they didn't move with the Middle East burning just imagine how they'll hold up when something bad happens to them like a slower economy so forget the oil patch at least for the near future if it didn't have a sustained move this week I don't know when it will stick with quick
Comments 0