Why Jim Cramer thinks it's time to sell some of your oil stocks

요약 보기

결론: 석유·가스 관련주는 단기 반등이 약하고 구조적 수요 우려가 커서 비중을 줄이거나 당분간 피하는 것이 낫다. 사우디 석유시설 피격 직후 유가가 50대 중반에서 60대 중반으로 잠시 올랐다가 약 58달러로 되돌아갔고, 5년 선물 곡선은 거의 움직이지 않았다고 설명한다. 이는 공급 충격이 장기 가격에 반영되지 않았다는 근거로 제시된다. 퍼미안 분지 생산 확대(약 1,200만 배럴/일에서 1,700만 배럴/일로 증가 전망)와 새 송유관 완공으로 미국산 원유·천연가스가 시장에 바로 공급되면서 유가 상승을 억누른다고 본다. 샌호세의 신축 주거용 건물 천연가스 금지 등 탈탄소 흐름을 언급하며, 가스는 메탄 배출 문제로 교량연료 지위를 잃고 있다고 주장한다. 전력회사들이 신규 가스발전소 대신 태양광·풍력을 선택하는 추세라서 GE의 전력 사업부가 부진한 이유라고 설명한다. 에너지 섹터는 시장 대비 역사적으로 가장 저평가 상태에 가깝지만, 젊은 포트폴리오 매니저들은 석유·가스를 새로운 석탄으로 보고 장기 건전성을 의심한다는 견해를 전한다. 슬럼버거(SLB)의 큰 손실 사례를 들며, 유가 급등에도 선도 곡선이 움직이지 않아 석유 서비스 기업들이 장기적으로 공격적 투자를 하기 어렵다고 본다. 조건과 리스크: 중동 리스크가 재부각되거나 경기 둔화가 심화되면 석유 관련주는 더 취약해질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 석유 관련주는 당분간 피하고, 이미 보유 중이라면 비중을 줄이라는 조언이다. 언제 반등할지는 모른다고 밝힌다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. this week then we had the biggest oil shock in over a decade half of Saudi Arabia's production taking out like nothing cheap phones did it but now only a few days later it boils a goner yet now for gas is a goner the whole complex is becoming uninvested right before our very eyes and that is the lesson of this week the attack on Saudi Arabia initially caused the price of crude the blip up from the mid fifties to the mid sixties now it's back to 58 is this there's never been an attack at all when you look at the five-year West Texas poor we curb which is the way to really judge pricing what you can pay for it out a few years it barely budged it was in $50 before the drone strike didn't responsive with the 52 that's it why can't the oil complex get any lift whether you got a combination of powerful forces hold me back from conservation efforts the slowing economy to the battle for supply of crude in the Permian Basin a vast repository of oil in West Texas that's pushing American production up from 12 million barrels a day to 17 million in a not too distant future you know that a decade ago as a 5 million the market to begin hand all that new supply from America which is why oil so darn cheap in the out-years much of the oil and gas in the Permian has been effectively trapped by a lack of pipelines but recently new pipe has being completed and now they can bring that oil and that natural gas right to the marketplace and that's the main reason why the attack on Saudi Arabia barely registered with the oil market for more than a day I mean sooner or later that Permian is gonna replace their supply but that's just the tip of the iceberg earlier this week San Jose California the tenth largest city in America banned natural gas in most new residential buildings beginnings are less sure the trying to crack down on greenhouse emissions and natural gas is a used methane spewer San Jose it's not the first thing to do it's just the largest now this barely notice news is huge for the complex it tells us the 50-knot belongs to renewable fuels less than a decade ago we had major players in the industry like the late or BRE McLennan of Chesapeake Energy or the reason who sees boone pickens who picked natural push snatch yes as a cheaper cleaner bridge fuel than coal or oil something could be even used to power cars trucks but the bridge fuel was a bridge too far it didn't happen naturally his vehicles never really caught on meanwhile even though utilities are phasing out coal they're reluctant to build new natural gas plants when they can build solar dor-win instead by the way that's a major reason why GG's power division is still struggling the older money managers who were used to Middle East shocks pushing prices up dramatically well they live in hope that the energy complex will make a comeback relative to the stock market it's about as low as it's ever been many wealth service types are now trading well below where they were when crude was in 26 bucks half of where it is why I have a theory younger portfolio managers believe that oil and gas are the new coal despite the Saudi fires despite a president wants to give car companies a break to relax fuel efficiency standards these stocks have become pariahs if you take climate change seriously and most younger people do including our portfolio managers it's hard to believe in the long-term health of this industry my child will trust and follow along at Action Alerts plus calm join the club well this week took a brutal loss on the stock of slumber Shea that's one of the best companies under this deal your service space I can't believe he sold the stock so much lower than where it was trading when oil was in half of these levels but after a major supply shock failed to move the forward curve we simply can't expect the oil companies to be aggressive long term and that's exactly what you need if you're relying on an oil service company to make your money if you weren't anyway else here's my advice I would scale back alarm if they didn't move with the Middle East burning just imagine how they'll hold up when something bad happens to them like a slower economy so forget the oil patch at least for the near future if it didn't have a sustained move this week I don't know when it will stick with quick