저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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금·은 본위제 등 금속본위 화폐는 정치인의 규율 회피로 장기간 유지되기 어렵다. 미국 달러 기축통화 지위는 약해질 가능성이 있으나 단기간에 대체되지 않으며, 역사상 기축통화는 100~150년 이상 지속된 적이 없다. 미국 증시는 14년 상승장으로 끝이 가까워지는 신호가 보이지만 아직 공매도하지는 않는다. 미 연준 금리 인상은 Lag 효과로 아직 충분히 반영되지 않았고, 인플레이션 재발 시 금리가 더 오를 수 있다. 디지털화폐 확산은 불가피하다고 본다. 본인은 우라늄(원자력)과 달러 자산을 보유한다고 언급.
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countries or civilization usually use what they have there was a lot of silver in the Middle East so they Ed silver like was in the US they had a lot of silver so they the original monetary system was based on Silver but then they started discovering gold and all the gold moners said no no no we should use gold as the monetary base so they changed US dollar is probably starting to come to the end not this much don't worry not this month but it was very strong for a long time according to veteran investor Jim Rogers throughout history countries and civilizations have used their available resources to create their monetary systems this is because money is essentially a medium of exchange and it needs to be universally accepted and have a relatively stable value he believes there have been attempts to establish metal-back currencies like gold or silver standards but they often face challenges and only last for a short time gold and silver-backed currencies bring forth notable advantages due to their Reliance on tangible assets to uphold the value of a country's currency nevertheless these currencies have their drawbacks a significant concern arises from politicians frequent reluctance to conform to the strictures imposed by such standards this resistance intensifies when faced with adverse circumstances compelling politicians to amend established rules Rogers believes this historical pattern of altering regulations during difficult situations has consistently eroded the viability of gold or silver-backed currencies as stable and dependable systems regarding the US Dollars role as the world's primary International currency Rogers suggests its dominance might end he emphasizes that historically no currency has lasted more than 100 to 150 years as the world's primary Reserve currency while the US dollar won't be replaced as the world's Reserve currency overnight a concerted effort to eat into its dominance can erode the greenback's place and cause fundamental shifts in the financial system if America wants to stay on top the US can't take the Dollar's status for granted now let's watch excerpts from Jim Rogers interview with resource talks before we start smash that subscribe button and remember to enable post notifications to stay updated on our latest uploads thank you and enjoy the video we haven't had a gold standard or metal standard for a long time uh the history shows people periodically have tried metal standards or some metal backed currencies you know the US was bounded on a currency that was backed by silver and for a 100 years or so it was basically a silver based economy if you go to parts of the Middle East they still have much more confidence in silver than they do in other medals so this is not a new thing that the world has tried something a real asset tobacco currency uh maybe we will try again but the problem with gold or silver back currencies is they're problems and they never last because they're problems the main problem is when things get tough because gold causes discipline to politicians well politicians don't like discipline so they change the rules and it's easy to change the rules and that's why gold has never really been a successful longterm backer of currencies nothing has been I'm sure we're all going to have digital currencies event if you go to China now you can't take a taxi with money you have to use your phone their phone money can't buy an ice cream in China with with r miny you have to use your phone money they're ahead of the rest of us everybody's working on it I'm sure yeah I'm sure we're going to have digital money in the future central banks love it it's cheaper they don't have to print it or transport it or anything and more important they know everything you do Antonio they know they're going to call you up one day and said you've been drinking too much tea this month stop drinking so much tea because they'll know everything you do they love it it's not good for you and me but it's good for them but it's coming will certainly come for a while um then something else will change but no I certainly see digital government digital money in our future and how do you use that then again I guess to repeat a question from earlier how do I use that knowledge to my advantage if it eventually is going to turn to digital currencies what does that mean for a portfolio what does that change for me well you might want to short the people who print paper money but it's not going to have that much change on you you're probably going to Le and many people at least for a while are going to think it makes their life better because all they have to do is go on their phone and pay their bills or check their bank or whatever um many people are going to find it wonderful then they're going to realize oh my gosh those people in the government know everything I'm doing uh and they might not think it's so much fun after a while but for in the beginning anyway we're all going to think it's great no that's not me but not I'm not going to think it's great because I know the consequence the US dollar is the world's major currency the world's International medium exchange for many many reasons it has been for a few decades uh maybe it's probably coming to an end nothing has lasted more than 150 years we've had many International currencies throughout history and the US dollar is probably starting to come to the end not this month don't worry not this month but was very strong for a long time I own a lot of us dollarss I can see that it's going to have problems I don't know what's going to compete with US dollar I don't know what's going to replace the US dollar if you know please don't announce it send me an email because I want to buy it myself and I don't see anything on the horizon you would think that the Chinese Ren mindi would be the currency but it's still a blocked currency so you cannot have an international currency that's block so I don't know what's going to compete with a dollar in the future I look every day I assure you in the mean I do own US Dollars they've been very strong for a while I worry about that but I'm not sure where I should put my money I do have some rmia I do have a few other currencies but I don't know the answer discussing the current state of the US markets Rogers highlights that historic Aly the US markets have yet to experience such a prolonged period of growth spanning 14 years while this extended period could indicate that the end might be approaching the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates substantially from their previous levels to combat inflation however these increases remain comparatively modest historically Rogers believes that this is in line with the existence of lag effects throughout history which means that there is often a delay between when interest rates are raised and when they significantly ly impact the economy regarding Market fluctuations Rogers highlights that markets typically exhibit a cyclical pattern of ups and downs rather than continuous linear movements the current Corrections and inflation concerns are a normal part of Market Behavior he critiques the decision-making of those in charge of monetary policy referring to them as bureaucrats and academics who might panic and raise interest rates again if inflation returns let's get back to the interview speaking of the US market US market has never had such a long up period 14 years now so historically we must be coming to the end but that doesn't mean it has to ever end maybe it'll go on another 14 years in my view there are signs that we're coming towards the end I'm not selling short yet uh but I can see you know we have a lot of new people coming into the market they call their friends and they say I've discovered this new thing thing called the stock market and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money and everybody's very excited you know some stocks go up every day these seen all of this before these are signs that we're getting towards the end it's not the end yet but we're getting there there are Lag effects just throughout history again this is not opinion just look it up and we are having a lag effect but us has not ra I mean they've raised interest rates a lot from where they were but historically they're not up a lot I mean 5% is not a gigantic interest rate in the US in 1970s we had a big big big inflation problem the interest rate on short-term treasury bills government treasury bills was 21% that's not a typo 21% interest rates now are five or six% % I don't know how high they're going to go before this is over but I know that we've printed staggering amounts of money and by the way in in 1980 the US was a creditor Nation still now the US is the largest deor nation in the history of the world so I would suspect that before this is over not in July not this this month but before this is over interest rates will be much higher markets go like this they go up they go down they go up they go down but they don't go straight up or straight down so what's happening now in the US in my view is just a normal Market things are correcting inflation's correcting you know they're not very smart people they're all academics and bureaucrats they think that they've solved that they did it that they've solved the problem and things are okay but when inflation comes back when the numbers when we have a rise again they will panic and raise interest rates again these are not very these are these are bureaucrats and academics these are not smart people that's why that's why they work for the government I own uranium but in uranium is atomic unit nuclear power is certainly cheaper and more efficient than Coal Power for instance if you do it right I mean if you have an accident you know want to have nuclear energy but as long as nuclear energy is handled properly and is safe it's much cheaper it's more efficient and everything else than coal or something else I mean the world's only had a couple of gigantic nuclear power accidents in the last 100 years they were bad they were disastrous but two out of a 50 years or so is not a bad record I'm not suggesting you run out and and build a nuclear power plant I'm just saying that nuclear energy is efficient and cheap while gold and Silverback currencies have advantages due to their tangible value they often struggle to maintain stability over time Additionally the long-standing dominance of the US dollar as the world's primary Reserve currency might be reaching its limits if the dollar declines it could lead to increased demand for precious metals what are your thoughts on the future roles of precious metals in the US dollar in shaping global monetary systems please share your thoughts in the comments section below if you found this video informative remember to give it a thumbs up subscribe to our Channel and enable notifications to stay informed about our latest videos on silver gold and copper thank you for watching and we appreciate your support
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