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Chemical companies can help us figure out the economy, says Jim Cramer

CNBC Television · 2023-05-05 · 유튜브 시청 22,014 · 게시판 조회 8 · 외국인

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Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. WELCOME TO CRAMERICA. I'M DOING t was always about the hurdles. The hurdles this week that we had to clear before the market could go higher again. Namely, the Fed meeting, the Apple quarter, and today's employment report. Once the hurdles were behind us, even if they weren't perfect, we knew that we could have a relief rally.

Sure enough, today we got more of a sigh of relief. We got A BULLISH JOINT that made this week's torture more bearable. Dow only gaining 547 points, S&P jumping 1.85% and Nasdaq pole vaulting 2.25%. House of pleasure. For the first decade of my 40-odd years in this business, I would dread weeks like this.

And I would do my best to trade out of them to get flat, so to speak. But over time, I've come to embrace the unknowable as long as it's on a schedule. We knew the Fed would meet, right? And there would be a semblance of reliability to it. Why? Because like J. Powell, he's a he's a pro. He he knows how to handle himself.

Sure, I wish he'd acknowledge the destruction wrought by the collapse of First Republic last weekend, but I'm still glad he tightened by a quarter point because today's a hot employment number fully justifies that rate hike and maybe even another quarter point in the next Fed meeting. As far as Apple, what do I tell you?

Own it, don't trade it. And that philosophy worked again. I refuse to be shaken out of the world's best company by one errant component supplier or a couple of joker brokers who say, "Hey, things have gotten weaker." It was a classic misdirection play. Sell, sell, sell. And I hope you didn't fall for it.

I did my best to keep you in. We saw something similar, by the way, from AMD, another charitable trust named after a report a few days ago. But if you sold into weakness, you're kicking yourself now that we know they've got something big cooking with Microsoft in the artificial intelligence front. And look, I don't tell you to not sell the stocks cuz I want you to endure a huge amount of pain.

My house of pain. I want you to endure a house of pleasure. Then today, we cleared the third hurdle with a hot jobs report. Definitely not what the Fed wants to see, although it tells you a great deal about the resilience of the economy and how amazing it is. The important thing though, is that we got it over with, which is what allowed us to roar.

Especially if you consider that previous months turned out to have been overstated a bit, so maybe the actual a spike in hiring was more, let's say, even. We know there's still one more hurdle, and that's the debt ceiling. That's much tougher. It'll linger until June, probably, which is why I recommend doing some selling near the end of the week, because you want some cash on the sidelines as this crisis plays out, and it will play out, but it is a crisis.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This coming week is a lot less difficult than the one we just went through, in part to none other than Warren BUFFETT. THAT'S RIGHT. CNBC will be back with Oklahoma in Omaha once again. Oh, look at this, here you go. So, I don't know what you're doing tomorrow. I mean, maybe this is when you get up after Cinco de Mayo, right?

Uh and it's going to be Waterloo cover starting Becky Quick at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which usually spells good news for the market on Monday. It's like a Buffett hangover, kind of like you'll have over the Cinco de Mayo case. Because Buffett's an optimistic guy, and his forceful defense of American capital markets usually leads to a positive reaction.

Yes, people can actually remember that they can remember from this day to that. It's rather extraordinary. You don't necessarily need to sell in the Buffett bounce, but I think a ton of people tried to get in ahead of it today. That was part of the big rally. They know the pattern and it's true when I've watched it for years.

You buy them today and unload them midday Monday to people who didn't know how bullish Buffett was. So, I definitely if you're going to buy anything, wait till after the selling stops. Tyson reports Monday morning and it is, frankly, inconceivable. Inconceivable to me that that this company can continue to be as awful as it is.

It's become the benchmark of suboptimal. At the close, we hear from PayPal. I know this material disappointer. Although, the last quarter wasn't as bad as the four before it. If you want upside, maybe you go with Skyworks Solutions because it has big business with Apple. And we all know now how Apple's doing.

Uh which is fabulous. Next, I find that if you want to get a read on the broader economy, you need to do what's known you need to listen to the the chemical companies because they're pretty much the basis of so much economic activity, which is why on Tuesday I'll be listening to Air Products, APD. This industrial gas alpha competes against Cramer fave, Linde, which is the cream of the crop.

So, if Air Products misses and pulls down the whole group, we are likely to be telling you if you're a member of the Investing Club to buy some Linde on weakness. Now, we still hear about companies not getting enough semiconductors. Global Foundries has been straight with us about why that's happening.

So, we'll listen to see if the chip shortage has finally been cured. This is an insanely difficult moment to pick semiconductor stocks right now. They have such divergent trajectories. Auto going different from Telco, which is going different from data center. They're all in different cycles with PC being the worst.

These guys can help us figure it out. Circling back to Warren Buffett, lately his favorite stock has been has been Occidental Petroleum. I believe he'll speak favorably about it this weekend. I doubt the quarter will be anything to write home about given the recent decline in price of oil. But, it might have a Buffett trampoline under it when it reports after the close.

Travel has been red hot, right? We all know that. Yet, Airbnb has not been able to benefit from the way say a Marriott has. I wonder if this could be the quarter that that perception changes, if not reality. I'm looking for some good numbers, especially from high rollers. They were supposed to be absent according to the last time that Airbnb reported.

Now, the one big macro number next week is on Wednesday morning, and that's the Consumer Price Index. Now, I think it's going to be hot. Now, why? I look at the components, and the component that's really driving everybody crazy, particularly the Fed, is housing. Fortunately, gasoline's been crushed, but we aren't getting a break in rents, and rents are what are factored into the CPI.

I also want to watch for a pal. Prices have come down hard for clothes of late. I hope the CPI at last captures those changes. It sure hasn't yet. The CPI is not being calculated correctly. I wish I could have a crack at it. I would fix it. Also, that is not hubris. I actually look at the stuff. Also, Wednesday morning, we get results from Wendy's, and I think it could be it it it it it could thrive like McDonald's and Restaurant Brands, man.

Remember we had them on the other night? Because Wendy's shoot operators, too. If they want their stock to soar, they just need to contact Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, and see if they can use AI to take drive-thru orders, thereby saving a fortune in labor costs and never having mistakes, because, well, ChatGPT it doesn't even know how to make mistakes.

Now, just so you know, I want to asterisk this quarter. My wife only had one Baconator the whole last 3 months, so she didn't help the cause this time. Wednesday evening, we have the most consequential reports. Walt Disney. The stock roared today for no particular reason. And I want you to know what we're we've been telling Investing Club members.

Do not buy Disney for this quarter. Interim CEO Bob Iger hasn't had enough time to adjust to a new world of fewer viewers and higher costs. I buy it after the quarter, not before. This week, we got some incredibly positive numbers from Simon Property Group. That's the shopping mall kingpin. Does that mean that Tapestry, the owner of Kate Spade, Coach, and Stuart Weitzman, denizens of Simon stores, will have the mall will have a great quarter when it reports?

I wish I could be more definitive. These days, if you want good retail exposure, I just tell you to go buy MasterCard. Next, has Yeti stabilized? Everybody loves Yeti, right? I mean, I carry one around. Don't Don't you? You have one, but the stock's been not that great. Yeti knockoffs are responsible for that.

In the world, it's impossible for them to beat the numbers because there are so many knockoffs. I think it's doing fine, but anything consumer discretionary has been a loser. I like to listen to him, though, because I think it's such a terrific company. I just wish that other companies would stop stealing their IP.

Finally, on Friday after the close, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks. You know, this guy's become my true north in this market. Today, he said the Fed's finally caught up to where it had to where it had to be in order to beat inflation. And he also acknowledged that we're near the end of the tightening cycle.

That is my thesis exactly, and I'm getting it from him more than he's getting it from me, believe me. If we have more banking headaches next week, I wonder if he'll say we've gone too far. I trust him, and I can't wait to hear what he says. He had some very good comments today. Bottom line, we know there's no real gauntlet to run next week, but we also know the clock's ticking on for a debt ceiling deal.

I don't have much faith in either side, and I don't trust the process because the market fell 19% from peak to trough during this period in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again now that things are even more rancorous in Washington. So, despite jumping three hurdles, remember that the fourth one will be lurking soon with no resolution in sight.

So, you might want to do some selling into the rally that began today, and I believe continues through the week. I feel like taking calls. Just my predilection. Let's go to Rex in Missouri. Rex. Hey, big Kansas City, barbecue capital of the world. Boo-ya, Jim. Arthur's barbecue capital of the world.

What's going on, Rex? Love Arthur's as well. First time, long time, Jim. We had one heck of a Super Bowl with your Eagles. Well, yeah, except for the kind of uh score. But, go ahead. To many more ahead. Hey, Jim, my stock is Walmart, WMT. I entered the stock around 140 in January. Love Walmart Plus and the fact it's overall defensive in a slowdown.

My question to you is since I own I owned Amazon already, is this too redundant or I should sell? not at all. They're they're very different. Amazon's trading on its web services, but anyway, I think Walmart is a winner. I like the stock very much. I want you to stick with it. All right. Now, we've gotten through most of the gauntlet, but the debt ceiling could Oh, man.

But, the debt ceiling could cause some real problems. Hey, I'm a pro and it's Friday. I'm ready for this. I'm not willing to endorse a lot of buying until it gets resolved and maybe do some selling at the end of the week. On Mad Money tonight, Cigna reported a beat and raised quarter that surprised the street.

So, what was behind the company's strength? I'm getting the wares from company's top brass. Then, watch out, King Charles. There's a new king on Wall Street in the form of DraftKings. And I know you those are often talked about together. I'm learning more after the today's 15% spike with the CEO. And Cloudflare soared to the clouds through after investor day.

So, what could be next for the cloud stock after the recent T-Mobile action? You don't want to miss my exclusive. Plus, you'll see what we're all doing after the close today by looking at this incredible New York Stock Exchange photo of none other than Corona and Modelo. But, of course, we can't shoot that, but that's me just imagining that we can. So, stay with C Cramer #. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

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