저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 1차 저항선(연준·애플·고용지표)은 넘었지만 부채한도 리스크가 남아 있어, 이번 주는 상승 랠리에 편승해 일부 매도해 현금을 확보하라는 조언. 시장 개관: 다우 +547p, S&P500 +1.85%, 나스닥 +2.25%로 반등. 연준의 0.25%p 인상과 강한 고용지표는 추가 인상 가능성을 시사하며, 시장은 이를 소화하고 랠리. 애플: 공급업체 우려와 약세 브로커 의견에도 흔들리지 말고 '보유' 유지. AMD도 마이크로소프트와의 AI 협력 기대로 매도 후회 가능성 언급. 부채한도: 6월경까지 이어질 가능성이 높은 가장 큰 위험. 주 후반 일부 매도로 현금 확보 권고. 2011년처럼 19% 급락 가능성 경고. 이번 주 일정: 버핏 주주총회(월요일 시장에 긍정적 흔적 가능, 단 랠리 시 매도 기회), 타이슨(월요일 부진 예상, 매수 비추천), 페이팔(부진 우려), 스카이웍스(애플 매출 연계로 상방 가능), 에어프로덕츠(화학 기업 실적으로 경기 판단 지표, 부진 시 린데 저점 매수 고려), 글로벌파운드리(반도체 공급 부족 해소 여부 점검), 옥시덴털(버핏 선호 종목, 실적 기대 제한적), 에어비앤비(고가 고객 회복 여부 관건), 소비자물가지수(주거비 때문에 뜨거울 것으로 예상, 의류 가격 하락 미반영 지적), 웬디스(맥도날드처럼 성장 가능성, AI 주문 기술 언급), 디즈니(실적 전 매수 비추천, 실적 후 매수 선호), 사이먼 프로퍼티 그룹 호실적(쇼핑몰 수혜 기대, 테이프스트리 불확실), 마스터카드(소매 노출 대안), 예티(짝퉁으로 부진, 장기적으로 좋은 기업), 불러드 연은 총재 발언(금리 인상 사이클 말기 신호). 출연자 전망: 워크리·월마트 보유자에게 Amazon과 중복 우려에 대해 '전혀 중복 아님, 계속 보유' 답변. 월마트 장기 보유 긍정.
다듬은 글
Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. I'm doing... it was always about the hurdles. The hurdles this week that we had to clear before the market could go higher again. Namely, the Fed meeting, the Apple quarter, and today's employment report. Once the hurdles were behind us, even if they weren't perfect, we knew that we could have a relief rally.
Sure enough, today we got more of a sigh of relief. We got a bullish jolt that made this week's torture more bearable. The Dow gained only 547 points, the S&P jumped 1.85%, and the Nasdaq pole-vaulted 2.25%. House of pleasure. For the first decade of my 40-odd years in this business, I would dread weeks like this. I would do my best to trade out of them to get flat, so to speak. But over time, I've come to embrace the unknowable as long as it's on a schedule. We knew the Fed would meet, right? And there would be a semblance of reliability to it. Why? Because, like J. Powell, he's a pro. He knows how to handle himself.
Sure, I wish he'd acknowledge the destruction wrought by the collapse of First Republic last weekend, but I'm still glad he raised rates by a quarter point, because today's hot employment number fully justifies that rate hike, and maybe even another quarter point at the next Fed meeting.
As for Apple, what do I tell you? Own it, don't trade it. That philosophy worked again. I refuse to be shaken out of the world's best company by one errant component supplier or a couple of joker brokers who say, "Hey, things have gotten weaker." It was a classic misdirection play. Sell, sell, sell. I hope you didn't fall for it. I did my best to keep you in.
We saw something similar from AMD, another charitable trust named after a report a few days ago. But if you sold into weakness, you're kicking yourself now that we know they've got something big cooking with Microsoft on the artificial intelligence front. And look, I don't tell you to sell stocks because I want you to endure a huge amount of pain. My house of pain. I want you to endure a house of pleasure.
Then today, we cleared the third hurdle with a hot jobs report. Definitely not what the Fed wants to see, although it tells you a great deal about the resilience of the economy and how amazing it is. The important thing, though, is that we got it over with, which is what allowed us to roar. Especially if you consider that previous months turned out to have been overstated a bit, so maybe the actual spike in hiring was, let's say, more even.
We know there's still one more hurdle, and that's the debt ceiling. That's much tougher. It'll linger until June, probably, which is why I recommend doing some selling near the end of the week, because you want some cash on the sidelines as this crisis plays out. And it will play out, but it is a crisis.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This coming week is a lot less difficult than the one we just went through, in part thanks to none other than Warren Buffett. That's right. CNBC will be back in Omaha once again, starting with Becky Quick at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which usually spells good news for the market on Monday. It's like a Buffett hangover, kind of like the one you'll have after Cinco de Mayo. Buffett's an optimistic guy, and his forceful defense of American capital markets usually leads to a positive reaction.
You don't necessarily need to sell on the Buffett bounce, but I think a ton of people tried to get in ahead of it today. That was part of the big rally. They know the pattern, and it's true; I've watched it for years. You buy them today and unload them midday Monday to people who didn't know how bullish Buffett was. So if you're going to buy anything, wait until after the selling stops.
Tyson reports Monday morning, and frankly, it's inconceivable to me that this company can continue to be as awful as it is. It's become the benchmark for suboptimal. At the close, we hear from PayPal. I know this is a disappointer, although the last quarter wasn't as bad as the four before it. If you want upside, maybe you go with Skyworks Solutions, because it has big business with Apple. And we all know now how Apple's doing, which is fabulous.
Next, if you want a read on the broader economy, you need to listen to the chemical companies, because they're pretty much the basis of so much economic activity. That's why on Tuesday I'll be listening to Air Products, APD. This industrial gas company competes against Cramer fave Linde, which is the cream of the crop. If Air Products misses and pulls down the whole group, we are likely to tell Investing Club members to buy some Linde on weakness.
Now, we still hear about companies not getting enough semiconductors. Global Foundries has been straight with us about why that's happening, so we'll listen to see if the chip shortage has finally been cured. This is an insanely difficult moment to pick semiconductor stocks. They have such divergent trajectories: auto is going differently from telco, which is going differently from data center. They're all in different cycles, with PCs being the worst. These guys can help us figure it out.
Circling back to Warren Buffett, lately his favorite stock has been Occidental Petroleum. I believe he'll speak favorably about it this weekend. I doubt the quarter will be anything to write home about given the recent decline in oil prices, but it might have a Buffett trampoline under it when it reports after the close.
Travel has been red hot, right? Yet Airbnb has not been able to benefit the way, say, Marriott has. I wonder if this could be the quarter that changes that perception, if not the reality. I'm looking for some good numbers, especially from high rollers.
The one big macro number next week is on Wednesday morning: the Consumer Price Index. I think it's going to be hot. Why? I look at the components, and the one really driving everybody crazy, particularly the Fed, is housing. Fortunately, gasoline has been crushed, but we aren't getting a break on rents, and rents are factored into the CPI. I also want to watch clothing prices, which have come down hard of late. I hope the CPI at last captures those changes. It sure hasn't yet. I wish I could have a crack at it. I would fix it. And that's not hubris; I actually look at the stuff.
Also on Wednesday morning, we get results from Wendy's, and I think it could thrive like McDonald's and Restaurant Brands. Remember, we had them on the other night? If Wendy's wants its stock to soar, it just needs to contact Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, and see if they can use AI to take drive-thru orders, saving a fortune in labor costs and never making mistakes. ChatGPT doesn't even know how to make mistakes. Just so you know, I want to asterisk this quarter: my wife only had one Baconator in the last three months, so she didn't help the cause this time.
Wednesday evening, we have the most consequential report: Walt Disney. The stock roared today for no particular reason. We've been telling Investing Club members not to buy Disney for this quarter. Interim CEO Bob Iger hasn't had enough time to adjust to a new world of fewer viewers and higher costs. I'd buy it after the quarter, not before.
This week we got some incredibly positive numbers from Simon Property Group, the shopping mall kingpin. Does that mean Tapestry, the owner of Kate Spade, Coach, and Stuart Weitzman, which are denizens of Simon stores, will have a great quarter when it reports? I wish I could be more definitive. These days, if you want good retail exposure, I just tell you to go buy Mastercard.
Has Yeti stabilized? Everybody loves Yeti, right? I carry one around. Don't you? But the stock hasn't been that great, and Yeti knockoffs are responsible for that. It's nearly impossible for them to beat the numbers with so many knockoffs. I think it's doing fine, but anything consumer discretionary has been a loser. I like the company a lot; I just wish other companies would stop stealing their IP.
Finally, on Friday after the close, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks. This guy has become my true north in this market. Today he said the Fed has finally caught up to where it needs to be to beat inflation, and he acknowledged that we're near the end of the tightening cycle. That is exactly my thesis, and I'm getting it from him more than he's getting it from me, believe me. If we have more banking headaches next week, I wonder if he'll say we've gone too far. I trust him, and I can't wait to hear what he says.
Bottom line: we know there's no real gauntlet to run next week, but the clock is ticking on a debt ceiling deal. I don't have much faith in either side, and I don't trust the process, because the market fell 19% from peak to trough during the 2011 debt-ceiling standoff. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again now that things are even more rancorous in Washington. So, despite jumping three hurdles, remember that the fourth one will be lurking soon with no resolution in sight. You might want to do some selling into the rally that began today, which I believe continues through the week.
I feel like taking calls. Let's go to Rex in Missouri. Rex: Hey, big Kansas City, barbecue capital of the world. Boo-ya, Jim. Arthur's barbecue, capital of the world. What's going on, Rex? Love Arthur's as well. First time, long time, Jim. We had one heck of a Super Bowl with your Eagles. Well, yeah, except for the score. But go ahead. Hey, Jim, my stock is Walmart, WMT. I entered around $140 in January. I love Walmart Plus and the fact that it's overall defensive in a slowdown. My question: since I already own Amazon, is this too redundant, or should I sell? Not at all. They're very different. Amazon trades on its web services, but I think Walmart is a winner. I like the stock very much. Stick with it.
Now, we've gotten through most of the gauntlet, but the debt ceiling could cause some real problems. I'm a pro, and it's Friday. I'm ready for this. I'm not willing to endorse a lot of buying until it's resolved, and maybe I'd do some selling at the end of the week.
On Mad Money tonight: Cigna reported a beat-and-raise quarter that surprised the street, so what was behind the company's strength? I'm getting the word from the company's top brass. Then, watch out, King Charles: there's a new king on Wall Street in the form of DraftKings, and I know those two are often talked about together. I'm learning more after today's 15% spike, with the CEO. And Cloudflare soared to the clouds after investor day. What could be next for the cloud stock after the recent T-Mobile action? You don't want to miss my exclusive. Plus, you'll see what we're all doing after the close today by looking at this incredible New York Stock Exchange photo of none other than Corona and Modelo. We can't shoot that, but that's me just imagining that we can. So, stay with CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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