저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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첫 줄: 짐 로저스는 차기 약세장이 생애 최악일 것이라며 대비를 강조하지만 단기 타이밍은 밝히지 않는다. 약세장 전망: 연준 옐런 의장의 낙관과 달리 부채가 2008년보다 훨씬 커져 다음 약세장은 평생 최악이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 구체적 가격·기간 언급은 없다. 중국: 중국 기업들의 부채 문제로 다음 약세장에서 중국 기업 파산이 나타날 수 있으나, 중국 전체가 서방과 단절되지는 않는다고 본다. 대미 무역 의존이 크다는 점을 근거로 든다. 원자재/농산물: 철강은 선물시장이 활발하지 않아 우선순위가 낮다고 보며, 농산물은 35년간 부진했으나 변화 중이라며 낙관하고 약세장에서 디커플링될 수 있다고 본다. 포트폴리오: 최근 말레이시아, 일본, 중국, 홍콩, 대만 ETF와 짐바브웨 ETF를 매수했다고 밝힌다. 일본 증시는 고점 대비 50% 하락 후 일본은행의 대규모 유동성 공급으로 고점 회복 가능성이 있다고 본다. 일본: 아베 정부의 강력한 통화 부양으로 닛케이가 과거 고점을 회복하면 두 배가 될 수 있다는 낙관적 견해를 밝힌다. 중국 증시: 2007년 이후 중국 경제는 크게 성장했지만 증시 개방은 충분하지 않다고 평가하며, 중국 증시는 지금도 로저스의 관점에서 충분히 열려 있지 않다고 본다. 미중 관계: 트럼프의 아시아 철수는 중국에 아시아를 넘겨주는 것과 같아 미국에 최악의 결과가 될 것이라 주장한다. 트럼프의 45% 관세 공약은 실행되지 않았고 무역전쟁은 승자가 없다고 평가한다. 리스크: 차기 약세장이 올 경우 일본 시장이 다시 급락할 수 있으며, 본인도 타이밍을 맞출 자신이 없어 Reuters를 보며 탈출하겠다고 말한다. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장은 여전히 낙관할 이유가 있으며 일부 저평가 시장에 기회가 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
the Reuters breaking news my name's Pete Sweeney I'm Asia editor I'm sitting here in Hong Kong with Jim Rogers a famous veteran investor a longtime Asia bull and a big fan of the bowtie a man after my own heart welcome on the show Jim I'm delighted to be happy so one of the things that everybody knows about you who follows your career is that you've been predicting of late you know this a big market crash to come now as we have markets hitting new highs every every minute it seems and people are shorting volatility indexes apparently I just want to move us forward a little bit let's assume it does happen next year let's assume all this crazy happiness evaporates in a big disaster what do you think the strategy is for positioning in terms of assets and regions well let me make sure that we have it clear what I have said was that we will have a bear market again some day now Janet Yellen at the chairman the head of the Federal Reserve in America says we want he says everything is ok now and there won't be any more economic problems I happen to disagree with her and I know we will have bear markets again and what I said was the next one we have when it comes is going to be the worst in your life the worst in my lifetime and I think I'm older than you the reason for that being you know 2008 we had a problem too much debt we got a problem the next time around the debt is so so so much higher Pete in the last nine years dad is skyrocket so the next time we have a bear market is gonna be the worst in my lifetime so I wish I was smart enough to know when I'm just saying for a hypothetical because you've been watching these asset markets you know because I hear people talking about about this a lot and the question is how do you how do you make money off of it your your investor so your short everything you buy canned goods ammo stock Oh what looks what looks attractive to you assuming that your you're bearish on those well I'm not sure time my boat stocks this week in China Japan Zimbabwe Taiwan so I mean I I see opportunities on the long side in markets it doesn't mean I'm right para market maybe start today no but I see opportunities but if you're worried about that you need to know how to sell short great fortunes can be made in a bear market selling short I'm not sure canned goods is the place yet no no don't don't laugh because we're gonna have some time in the next few years or canned goods town of a kind of time we're gonna have serious serious problems in the world I'm not sure canned goods is for the next bear market but it's don't forget your canned goods well tell me a little bit about your China strategy because that people have always been hoping that we're gonna have like this kind of counterbalancing economy you know out of sync with the US you know that you can that you can put money into uh you know but but I mean in if you're talking about printing money and going into debt like China is famous for kind of respond in the same way do you see this as kind of like a regional disconnect that like you know you might have a problem in the States and the China will not track it down I don't see how you're gonna have a China disconnect from them from the West I mean the largest trading company in the world country in the world the United States and China are gigantic trading partners in in my view when we have problems the next time you're gonna have companies in China going bankrupt which is gonna be a shock to them to me too and I know what's coming into the world because Beijing has said we will let people go bankrupt now I hope they do I wish Washington would let people go bankrupt in London and in Berlin but the China the Chinese now I have debt you know what that case the Chinese had known nobody would lend money to Mao Zedong sure and they wouldn't they didn't borrow money but now in China a lot of companies have a lot of debt well a lot of this is dollar debt right I mean this year there's been a lot of borrowing offshore there's a lot of well at least in dollar denominated instruments some of it offshore foreign banks have lent a lot to Chinese companies do you think the world is more at risk from a China correction than it was some 10 years ago there are companies that deal with the west and that have dead whatever the debt is and when their customers get in trouble they're gonna be in trouble and some of them are gonna go under many companies in China have little debt and many companies in China could care less if the West disappears many company if you're cleaning up pollution in China you don't care if you have disappears you're too busy going to work every day and you're making too much money but the ones that have dead and the deal with the West are gonna have problems the next time around right well I mean I know the people who are most nervous about the China story are commodities people and I know you've dabble in commodities yourself what's your outlook for like these core commodity products steel iron ore that are underpinned by Chinese demand how do you how do you say well I I'm I'm more I'm a director of a coal company so we obviously should worry about Chinese code I do own commodity yes Steel is not high on my list because it's there's no real active futures market but some commodities on my property mystery of Agriculture I'm very optimistic about Agriculture's been a disaster for 35 years it's changing in my view it's changing so if you're worried about the world and if we are going to have a serious bear market you should think about agriculture because agriculture will probably be do well and that is a place that will probably disconnect in the net use your term in the next bear market is that yes all right I think decoupling is the right okay I should have used the correct term but I mean is that where your portfolio strategy that you're working on this this last week in Zimbabwe China is that is that is that a female working recent letters that I bought Malaysia a couple Japanese ETF Chinese ETFs Hong Kong Taiwan ETFs and Zimbabwe yeah the comparable of ETFs in Zimbabwe okay so that's a passive so I'm just gonna ask you I mean one of the I took a look at your your famous book bull in a china shop right and it's just interesting because it kind of a timing of it I use the experiment I looked at what has happened in the China stock exchange since that book came out now if you bought you know shares in a China ETF the si si 300 benchmark or whatever well the day after the first day of trade after that book came out you'd be down 17 percent right now if you bought the S&P 500 you beat up like 77 percent something right so the China market right now they just opened the doors a little bit you can go in through these connect funds but like there's a stream lumpiness what's your take on what they've done to kind of make that a bit more reassuring for foreign investors well first of all to the book book was written as not as a market time here was the description of the Chinese market and it specifically says some of these guys are gonna go bankrupt this is just to tell you what's happening in China because back then ten years ago many people didn't know China had a stock market so the book was written as a primer as a primer to explain how the how the world works up there but as far as time I did write to beat up on the exactly the wrong time came out of but the publish came out doesn't matter came out of exactly if you're looking at Morgan Tommy it's at the top it's certainly at the top but I'm not sure because China certainly boomed since 2007 this is I don't think anybody would dispute that the Chinese economy is a whole lot bigger and it's done a whole lot better than nearly any other economy and that beautiful and that's going to continue the market is certainly not opened up as fast as that I would open it up you know if I were China I'd open the market today I would have opened the market in years ago both the currency market and the stock market in the commodities markets I'm not China they do it their way it's still not a completely open market you mentioned some of the things that they're opening up sure but you can't just pick up the phone and start investing in China the way you pick up the phone and invest in Germany or Australia or other places moving outside of China you said you're gone in Japan South Korea what's your take on on what do you like about Japan these days there's a lot of well the Japanese market first of all is down 50 percent from its all-time high 27 years ago so there's some ketchup perhaps but we could have said this many times except for the fact that our Bay they had the Prime Minister is printing staggering amounts of money he's doing everything he can to get the markets up and he's good after his most recent election he's got the power to do anything he wants and he's doing it the Japanese central bank spends every day printing money so they can buy stocks and bonds I mean it's shocking it's unbelievable the next time there's a bear market Japan may disappear and fall into the sea but in the meantime Pete it's down 50 percent he's doing all he can to get the markets up so I own Japanese shares am I gonna make money I don't know but my view is the Japanese stock market may go back to its all-time highs and that would be a double if it does so is it fair to say you're not buying as if we're gonna have a big market crash next year like your strategy is I mean we could have a market crash next year I hope I'm smart enough to watch Reuters and figure out how to get out of you appreciate that I'll get out in time but at the moment I still see optimist up reasons to be optimistic in some markets that are still very depressed compared to the ones going through the roof can we talk politics for a second tell you anything you want they're angry so Trump is in town on his big Asia tour and you know the both of us have both spent a lot of time in Asia you much more than I but I mean like you know you clearly dedicated your life and a large part of your career to living here your daughter speak Chinese I understand and you know what's happening now I think is is upsetting to two a lot of the asia hands and this perception that the Trump and the people who supported him our fans have kind of withdrawal of the United States from that from the region from engagement I was just wondering you know what's what's your take on what is happening right now and you know if you could speak to these people you know who think this is a good idea what would you say well the first thing I would say was it if you were trawl from Asia then you give it to China you're giving three billion people to China because there's nobody else the Indians can't compete with the Chinese certainly who's gonna take over not Japan not Korea so if America withdraws from Asia which Trump seems to want to do you might as well just ring a bell and say okay guys now you're Chinese which is one reason I taught my children Mandarin and that would be the worst thing from America's point of view twenty years from now somebody is gonna wake up and say how did China get Asia and the answer is mr.
Trump gave it to them you know mr. Trump said bye-bye we're leaving it's yours now so that's the first thing I would say to them the second thing I would say that mr. Trump what's the word well anyway mr. Trump promised many times on his first day he would impose 45% tariffs on China in Mexico well he's been 10 months he hasn't done it yet so I'm not sure mr.
Trump knows what he wants to do a lot of the things he said promised us he was due he hasn't done yet I mean god forbid he should put 45% tariffs on the Chinese that's called trade war and nobody's ever won a trade war so thank goodness he hasn't done some of it well I think that's all the time we have for now thanks so much for talking to us this is Jim Rogers I'm Pete Sweeney with Reuters breaking views you
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