저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 2021년 기술주 거품 붕괴와 금리 인상의 디플레이션 효과가 2023년 이후 경기침체와 주가 하락으로 이어질 가능성이 크다고 봄. 연준은 침체 가능성을 낮게 보지만 연준의 예측은 과거 거품기 침체를 한 번도 예측하지 못해 대개 틀렸다고 비판. 인플레이션은 과거 10년 평균보다 높은 수준으로 재진입했고 금리도 높게 유지될 것으로 봄. 금리 상승은 부동산 시장과 소비를 압박해 기업 이익과 주가에 타격을 줄 것이라는 논리. 침체 시점은 2023년 시작 가능성, 2024년 후반까지 이어질 수 있다고 언급. 대응으로 보수적 자세와 안전자산으로서 금 분산투자를 제시.
다듬은 글
the deflationary forces from the tech stocks breaking in 2021 probably too too big the the power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market very negative slow moving influence I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices so the recession that predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023 but it may start in 2023 uh the Federal Reserve recently said that they think we've uh kind of cleared the recession uh hurdle and they don't really project a recession any longer you disagree with the FED on that yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do now you said uh not too long ago that you weren't a big fan of JP and the way he's been handling inflation uh is that correct yes that's correct and you think he's done a better job recently in getting inflation under control I I think um it's largely out of his hands the forces work I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down in the world of finance and Investments the Insight of a billion like Jeremy grams can significantly influence Market perceptions and his latest interview has certainly made waves it describes a scenario that is far from optimistics suggesting an impending storm rather than a continuation of Sunny Market condition Gram's alert is clear and alarming he predicts a tough period ahead for the US economy with the recession looming a recession that could extend well into the following year overshadowing the prolonged period of the market growth that investors have been relishing following the global pass triggered by the covid-19 pandemic a sudden drop in demale LED economies into a deflationary spiral that was unexpected as economic activity resumed the US government distributed stimulus checks there was remarkable boost in spanning especially in the tech sector parking a significant stock market rally in 2021 though initially beneficial this rally had unforeseen effects the stock market's exuberance not only made manyy unexpected richer but also contributed to inflation the surge in wealth and demand put the economy in precarious position leading to inflationary pressure in response the Federal Reserve took measures to stabilize the economy by raising interest rates in 2022 targeting not only the stock market but also overheated real estate sector with higher interest rates and mortgage rates the real estate markets now faces sign ific challenges Gram's Bleak Outlook is based on the interaction of these elements the potential downturn from the tech stock Bubble Burst and the repercussion of the higher interest rates could severely impact the real estate sector this situations present a slow moving yet PR shift in the economic landscape where the previous divers of growth could become the harbingers of a downturn Gram's cautionary St serve as a warning light for the financial Community as as it navigates through these evolving challenges throughout the interview gram critiques the federal reserve's optimistics projections particularly challenging J Paul's management of inflation despite his criticism grams acknowledged that inflation's future might be Beyond Paul's control hinting at a period of sustain higher inflation and interest rates the Federal Reserve recently said that they think we've uh kind of cleared the recession uh hurdle and they don't really project a recession any longer you agree with the FED on that yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles Granton message is a stock reminded that Financial word is a fraud with unpredictability he calls for preparedness against a potential downturn especially with the possibility of recession in late 2024 which could undraw if the stock market bubble burst as feared as a financial narrative unfold Gram's interview stands as a sobering prompt that the vibrancy of the bull market May soon be overshadow with boming economic challenges investors are left to ponder their Readiness for the possible Financial turmoil that could disrupt the Market's current trajectory the financial state is thus marked by caution as the ongoing sug of market dynamics with its inherent uncertainties as we witness the unfolding of comp Le Lex economic Dynamics there is a palpable sense for Bing the possibility of a recession given by the aftermath of the tech stock Bubble Burst and subsequent increase in interest rates looms large the scenario marked by Rising interest rate resembles an approaching Tempest rling challenges times elevated interest rates creating significant hurdles for both businesses and individuals the Federal Reserves efforts to temper an overly vigorous economy mean that boring cost sech the scenario poses difficulties for Consumer aiming to purchase significant asset like homes underscored by a record setting household that level of $17.3 trillion with the asent of interest rates the financial strain deepens the growing in challenge of affording a new acquisition leads to a widespread reduction in consumer expenditure this renement in spending triggers an immediate followed a swift decline in demand such a decrease in consumer activity adversely affects businesses across a wide array of Industries diminished consumer spending translates into a lower business revenues which in turn depress profits the sequence of events extends its impact to government Finance to reduce tax revenues the stock market a barometer of business Prosperity also feels the burn of these economic shift with revenues and profits dling the stock markets with healthy WIS the equation is straightforward businesses difficulties reflect directly in stock market performance in this context Jeremy Gram's caution gains at its significance the intricate web of economic relationship suggests looming difficulties a recession particularly one occurring alongside High interest rates signifies a profound disruption capable of altering the economic landscape investors are thus compelled to contemplate the road ahead wondering whether the stock market can withand the brainstorm or if it will scum to aning ecomic tumult grantham's advisory resonate within the financial Community highlighting the need for resilience as economic condition evolve with this turbulent economic scenario Mark by the threat of recession and the challenges of high interest rates the imperative for caution becomes apparent embarrassing a conservative stance is not only wise but necessary navigating through uncertain times such turbulence gold emerged as a potential Sanctuary historically gold has has mean a symbol of stability amidst economic appal maintaining its value while other investment May falter it represents a safe heaven for those seeking to Shield their wealth from the adverse effect of economic downturn incorporating gold into one's Investment Portfolio could be a strategic move offering balance and stability it's about diversifying wisely enhancing the resilience of your Investments against potential economic storms Gram's dire warning is a call to Pro students in the vaal world of Finance as we Face potential economic downturns and market fluctuation adopting a caution approach and fortifying your financial defenses becomes crucial amidst the economic squalls and the bursting of bubbles considering the ending value of gold as a stabilizer ensuring your financial stability in tumultuous time
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