저자: AdamCoons · 외국인
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팔란티어는 AI 존재론(온톨로지) 우위와 상업 고객 확대로 최근 강하게 상승했으나, 매출 대비 49배(PSR)의 고평가 상태다. 2025년 매출 성장률 가이던스 36%는 이 밸류에이션에 비해 낮아 실적 미스 시 하락 폭이 클 수 있다. 모멘텀은 단기적으로 주가를 더 끌어올릴 수 있지만 향후 12~18개월 상승여력은 10~20%, 하락 리스크는 약 50%로 제시됐다. 매도 대신 신중한 관점을 유지하라는 취지다. 이후 Tom White는 단기 중립~약세 옵션 전략(콜 베티컬, 풋 베티컬)을 예시로 소개했다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time to go inside out on Palunteer, a name that certainly has run up big time. Adam Coons, co-chief investment officer at Winthre Capital Management is with me. And uh people still love this name. Just recently got yet another government contract. And while it has been said it trades a bit like a meme stock, what say you?
Well, first thanks for having me. you know, yeah, it obviously does trade a little bit like that and and a lot of times when people associate it in that manner, it's because uh meme stocks tend to trade with a very extreme valuation. So that that really is uh the crux of the issue for for Palunteer, but we can get to that later.
I think, you know, when we talk when we're talking about a a company and a stock like this, it's tough because uh you've kind of got to separate the two. I think no one would question this is obviously a a fantastic company that's doing a lot of great things. It's just, you know, the stock has run up a lot and so that should give investors, you know, a little bit of a a pause or caution about uh what can come next.
Uh because right now it seems like the majority of uh the upside as far as you know growth and earnings and revenue uh have been priced into the stock. And so, uh, you know, there's just not there's more potential for downside than upside at the moment. Uh, which you should never like as an investor.
You know, over one year it's up 456%. And people talk about the high, the recent high of 135. What kind of targets are you looking at near-term and longer term? Um, are you concerned about the valuation? Yeah. So I like I said I think momentum is extremely strong. It's it's a very strong factor and so I think in the near term that's going to continue to to elevate the stock and uh to hit on the valuation piece you know it's trading at 49 times sales.
uh that is, you know, seemingly outrageous and and in in large part it's more outrageous because it's not a company that's growing revenue at, you know, 75%, 100%. It's growing at a very strong pace, but you know, we're talking, you know, mid30s. Uh outlook was just raised at 36% revenue growth for 2025.
And so that's not the type of growth you would typically associate uh with a company trading at this kind of valuation. But I would not sell simply because uh valuations seem a little bit rich. I think you know uh valuations always matter, but they don't matter in that just because a company has a high valuation means the stock's going to go down.
And so I think for us, you know, we're seeing an upside potential uh in the range of 10 to 20% is probably what's left uh in the next, you know, 12 to 18 months. But on the flip side, we would say the potential downside, you know, so if your upside is 20%, your downside could be somewhere around 50% uh in a stock like this.
Now, I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but that's the range of outcomes you need to factor into, you know, your investment thesis. And what happens when you have valuations this, you know, extended is, like I said, it doesn't mean the stock's going to just go down. What it does mean is that the margin of error, uh, is a little bit harsher.
And so if if there is a miss, if there you know is a revenue miss, earnings miss, if guidance is reduced uh lower beyond what investors think, this is the type of stock that you would see punished uh tremendously and and much harsher than than your typical stock. Nvidia is kind of the a similar name that can have that kind of volatility and I you know it's I would put it about probably half the volatility of a stock potential like this, right?
Um so but you you saw with Nvidia when when they did come out and say they couldn't sell chips, you know, specific chips to China, the stock fell a ton. And so I think that's kind of what the risk is here for for a name like Palunteer is just something to come out that is not a terrible piece of news.
doesn't mean that revenue is declining but just misses expectations the stock would fall hard right and you know there are some people who are still questioning you know what is Palunteer clearly we have the government I'm I'm not kidding I mean I have people who come on who really are wondering you know okay so the government contracts are you know it's been told to me somewhat of a small part of the palunteer story what's the rest of it you know people feel like there's some shade on what it really does or is to the point that you're making about this lofty valuation.
However, so many analysts who are combing through it more closely than me for sure are really touting it and do like it. Um that being said here we they also noted the AI arms race and the CEO of Palunteer um I guess that was Alex Carv who actually said it but noting that the AI arms race is on between the US and China and there will be one winner and that the west should keep up.
Yeah that's exactly the the case for us. That is why the stock is up so much. Uh because look look the AI narrative were a shot that felt like generally speaking the AI narrative got uh overblown overdone but there were specific names that were better than the rest. And it is when you're talking about AI it is kind of an overgeneralization.
And so when you're looking at Palunteer, the reason the stock is up, the reason there's so much fanatical, you know, investor support for it is because their AI ontology is better than the rest. And the competitors are far away from, you know, the the efficiencies that they build in uh to to companies with their software.
That's why their retention rates are so high. And so when you're looking at, you know, the upside really does come from this shift to commercial and you saw that in this last earnings release is that was where the focus was when you're looking at, you know, the there is a lot of talk about the defense side and that's important uh for for Palunteer.
But I think the go forward where the growth is going to come from is expanding that real concentrated consu customer base into uh more of your Fortune 500 companies where they're building in efficiencies especially at a time where you might see input cost higher uh because of tariffs or other reasons is you know cutting your budget on efficiency uh software probably isn't going to be where you're going to focus.
So that's where Palunteer can move in there. Obviously, they just signed deals with uh Amazon, AWS, Oracle, and so we think that's going to be the trajectory is you know, signing contract with these really big firms and helping with efficiency within the AI space. Yeah. And I'll add that Kathy Woods ARC fund recently sold some Palunteer about over $9 million worth in its funds.
Um I always just like to see what they're doing there at Arc Invest. Thank you so much, Adam Coons. Great to see you. co-chief investment officer, Winthre Capital Management. So Tom White is here, host of Fast Market, and you are taking a look at some potential trades here for Palunteer. It's at 133 today.
Start first, I guess you have a neutral trade you're going to share with us. Example trades. Yeah, both of these are going to be based on what Adam thinks uh maybe a little bit overbought. Stocks up nearly 470% over the last 12 months. So, it's had a great run just below those all-time highs of about 135 of from last week.
So, first strategy I looked at really short-term positioning. If you think maybe this stock's going to consolidate, maybe pull back a little bit, but still giving myself a little bit of cushion to the upside before you start getting hurt on this one. Going out to the June 27th weekly cycle. So, just 17 days to expiration on this one.
We're going to sell the 140 strike call. And because you want to stay risk defined in a name like this, it's got a high beta. It moves around quite a bit. We're going to buy the 145 strike call. So, a short $5 wide neutral to bearish call vertical. You're going to collect roughly about a buck 10 credit on this.
That's what you can make. The credit that you collect on this short call vertical uh with risk of about $390, but that's all the way above $145 uh on this one. If you collect that 110 credit, your break even's going to be 14110 over the next 2 and 1/2 weeks. Uh that's about 6% above the current share price in uh Palunteer.
So you're giving yourself that cushion. You profit in three out of four scenarios on this one. Stock goes lower, stays where it is, or even goes higher, but remains below 14110. You can be profitable on this one. Okay, so that one uh you could be profitable. What about this one? You have a bearish example trade.
Let's check this one out. Yeah, a little bit more aggressive. The IV percentile rank in Palanteer right now is right about the 30% level. So, uh, basically about the lower one-third of implied volatility levels that we've seen over the last 52 weeks. So, this strategy takes advantage of that low implied volatility, giving it a directional bias, but we're also going to give give ourselves some duration on this example uh going out to the July monthly cycle.
So about 38 days to expiration uh on this uh this trade where we're going to buy the slightly in the money 135 strike puts. That's bearish, right? And then against it to offset some of the costs on this bearish put purchase, we're going to uh sell the 115 strike put. So a bearish $20 wide put vertical to the downside.
You're going to pay roughly about a 780 debit for this spread. Uh it's $20 wide. You're paying a debit of 780. So that takes a break even down to 12720 over the next 38 days. That's about 4.5% below the current share price in Palunteer. And the nice thing with directional bias trades like this, this one's in a be a bearish uh trade where you think the stock's going to go lower over the next six weeks or so, is the the fact that you have a little bit more um you know construction as far as trade management goes.
you give give yourself a little bit more flexibility where I don't have to wait to expiration to exit this trade. So if I do get that pull back in the shares say it goes to 120 125 and this expands the price of this vertical you it gives you some opportunities to close a portion or all of your spread before expiration.
So it gives you a little bit of flexibility there. But this is definitely a bearishly directional uh vertical. The debit you pay is going to be your risk. $780 per spread that can expand to uh $20 if it does go below 115 uh into expiration over the next 38 days. All right, Tom White, great to see you and thank you for those two example trades on Palunteer this morning. Thanks
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