원문 보기
now i'm just trying to make sense of it here because i want to make you some money my job is to entertain to educate teach and put this whole thing listen to bears right we're in the grip of what yes persistent pernicious inflation that is certain to wreck the economy as well as your pension your payroll anything and don't even get me started on the budget deficit they know nothing yet there's a conundrum here the averages are holding them pretty darn well aren't they gal dipping just six points today for making a new high yesterday that's me advancing 0.3 and hitting a new intraday high and nasdaq getting 0.62 i said this probably hear from the commentators this market's endless advance keeps posing a powerful question doesn't it it what happens if it turns out that the move is justified by the fundamentals as opposed to what everybody comes on and says which is not justified not just whatever has been justified what happens if the woes that plague the economy are easing what if things are getting better well i suspect we're overbought i know that from my s p ocean i follow and could always have another leg down i think there could be any buying opportunity that you should pounce on remember seven to ten days from now begins the most seasonally strong period of the year for the last 23 years so i would hold on to stocks or pounce on weakness as we are doing for our new investment club which given our ubiquitous qr code is pretty darn easy to sign up a qr code is that thing that looks like this is that good i mean doesn't it look like that to me it does i mean i hold my camera up the wrong way to it so you know get get a little lesson there all right let's synthesize what we've been hearing from the ceos of major companies since i'm on every earnings call there it is see i'm on every single earnings call and my life is uh terrible and i'm driving my wife crazy here we go here's some some clues that i'm getting that you're not hearing because people are looking at that top down stuff doesn't have the real real deal why don't we start with the bank ceos given where we were 20 months ago the american consumer is now in remarkable shape individual balance sheets have gotten so strong that people don't need as many loans by the way the best balance sheets in the history of our country okay and when they do need money their credit scores are absurdly high what does that mean it means they can borrow money and create a small business and there's an astounding resurgence in small business which gives banks the opportunity to turn a profit by lending people money in a prudent way there's no spike up in delinquencies spike down having studied the banks for the last 40 years i can tell you these institutions are indeed in the best shape i've ever seen them when the banking system's strong that's very good news for the economy second group the transport boy have you seen the transports have you been following the action there my most favorite group to look at for example if you listen to this morning's conference call from union pacific lance fritz we had them all not that long ago he was kind of bearish remember trying to get him to be positive you know that the port situation has been improving ever since president biden got involved with his 24 7 plan to ease the congestion and that's a big reason why union pacific a very big position by the way of my chapel trust that you can follow by joining the investment club rallied to an all-time high today when it comes to fixing the supply chain i think there's a surprising amount of low-hanging fruit you know what i'm telling you that problem is a lot less intractable than many people seem to assume just gotta shine a light on third this earning season is where we separate the wheat from the chaff they're truly great companies like procter gamble they can cope with higher costs by raising prices in order to pass them on the consumer they haven't even done yet yet and they've got four percent growth you imagine what their quarters will be like next time meanwhile costco home depot walmart amazon and lowe's have used their massive scale to keep prices relatively contained tamping down on inflation where they can they've done a good job it's not perfect but the outside is paying from higher prices seems to be weighing at least on the margin even as inflation is certainly upon us some companies have pricing power others don't the ones that pricing power give you great stocks the ones without pricing power give you great bargains on their products fourth more than a handful of charters have i've been studying and told us that oil would peak at up at or below 84 that's been that line the same for us on the fundamental side well it seems clearer unless we're heading to another ice age we have enough natural gas to keep energy prices from skyrocketing so what happens to the stock market if oil and gas start coming down which is like have you ever heard anyone even say that uh it would be positive on the oil side the united states is still a long way from producing what we did before the pandemic but you know that the permian basin is no longer falling behind the private producers are gearing up aggressively i think it's only a matter of time before we see the same story in the rest of the country i did not feel that way but i'm seeing permian going up so our producers are sitting on so much product they could make fortunes at these levels they're not going to leave it in the ground even as their discipline to date has been integral to the price rise of crude that's a new development there's one exception here the northeast won't get any break on energy prices that has more to do with the lack of pipeline capacity because people don't want pipelines under their land fifth let's talk chemicals this morning dow chemical a company i like very much put a terrific set of numbers that indicated supply is still very tight pricing going up i've been worried the two key building blocks which are polyethylene and polyurethane might tip into equilibrium and then oversupply because new capacity is being added but that sure isn't the case right now i thought wall street would like the quarter nope the stock got hit the stock told you capacity is coming at the same time ppg the coding company that's a big consumer of commodity chemicals reportable i thought it's a pretty negative number it said raw costs remain a persistent bad problem and what happens ppg rallies nearly three percent now you don't need to be a rocket scientist or a chemist to figure out that the market is speaking here and it's calling a top in these key commodity chemicals the market sees lots of new plants coming online and that means prices should come back down in 2022 now most of the commentators who've heard about inflation are these big picture people they look at giant aggregate numbers usually the government statistics they're allergic to the kind of granularity that i bring to you i eat granularity for breakfast and breakfast tastes bad for the chemical industry tastes like those lousy rice cakes i eat it's good for the rest of us though how about steel you know i like new core the biggest and best deal maker but there are many bears who've been prowling around new coordinates steel compadres argument they've seen peak pricing we're going to talk about that later with whirlpool new core did miss estimates and those estimates were set not that long ago and that gave the bears the evidence they needed to call top and it's why the stock got slammed we told club members we don't think that we think it's an opportunity but i see when people say that the steel cycle has run its course when new core misses its numbers so let's see let's say there is a peak in chemicals i think there may be let's say that there's a peak and steel i don't think so but you know what the market says i'm wrong all right one more that's the biggest of all the semiconductor shortage total horror show right how the basics enemies been doing microns cascading lower meanwhile you listen to the semiconductor capital equipment makers as i did on their common schools sure doesn't sound like the shortage is going to last forever neither the land resource or asml gave you a sense that businesses on fire i was surprised at that in fact lamb embraced the midpoint of pretty much every range of estimates i was hoping to come in and tell you to buy that one so when you hear people predicting that the chip shortage should last well into 2023 ask yourselves then why uh why the chip makers aren't buying new equipment like crazy to take advantage of that i get the feeling that there's been a lot of double ordering in the system all the way down the food chain and that's why the capital expenditures aren't going off the charts the industry seems to expect that there's a surfet of semiconductors coming all over the place not just in the cheapest commodity chips like drams or flash those are microns bellywick yet the price increases are either becoming baked in or they're not coming through at all so again like i did with you know because i'm trying to always teach you like i said with dal commodity going into ppg let's look at it another way look at through ford motor well you might be wondering how could ford motors see its stock rally three percent today only two bucks from where it was 10 years ago even though it's a huge bar of all the commodities i mentioned and totally hostage the chip shortage i think the rally in fort stock says the tyranny of the supply chain may be coming to an end even as i told members of the investment club to be careful because it's been up big on two straight days all that said there's one inflationary item i don't have an answer for and that's the labor shortage we're beginning to see more people return to the workforce with these vaccine requirements but the profound loss of 700 000 people in our great country coupled with the victims of long covet and the remaining unvaccinated give you plenty of reasons not to go back to office fear at the same time there's this widespread reassessment of life itself you know what it don't i i'm willing to get existential you know why because we had the same thing happen after the civil war after world war one and world war ii where we had major labor shortages and a lot of plain old partying it's happening again as the world coveted winds down people are trying to figure out what to do with their lives they will figure it out and when they do i think things will end fine the way they did in the 50s of 1950s of course not all deflation is good deflation look at snap down more than 20 nifty hours trading because apple's new privacy rules make their targeted advertising a lot a lot less precise therefore less valuable you want deflation and talk to the owners of snap however with the exception of labor there are suddenly a lot of bullish pieces in the inflation puzzle that i see that i want you to see if you wait for these prices to finally come down if you wait for the mosaic of if you wait for the jigsaw puzzle to be completely finished you'll end up waiting too long let me give you the bottom line jumping the gun is a mistake in almost every single human endeavor except for the stock market the averages have been gun jumping on peak inflation for the last 10 days because the big guys cannot afford to wait to get in soon neither can you
Comments 0