저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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Fed·주요 중앙은행이 엄격한 인플레이션 목표에서 벗어나 더 넓은 물가 개념으로 이동 중이라는 주장. 공급측 문제(지정학, 공급망 재편, 노동시장 경직, 에너지 전환)로 금리 인하 여력이 제한되고 인플레이션이 다소 높게 유지될 수 있다고 봄. 재정지출 확대 등으로 장기적으로는 대가를 치를 것이라는 우려. 경기 둔화 조짐도 언급하며 침체 가능성을 확률로 제시.
다듬은 글
Muhammad alaran is here chief economic adviser at alion president of Queen college at Cambridge uh University and a uh a Fed are you a Whisperer what are you uh a Observer fed OBS fed Observer um did you think it was doish more doish than you were expecting yesterday oh absolutely and in two ways one is a signal that they're willing to tolerate higher inflation for longer and second something that is flying below the radar screen is what what chair pal said about QT said about the balance sheet saying that he's willing to slow down the journey to a lower balance sheet I think that twin patience means that we may well look back on this week as the week in which central banks stepped away from a very strict inflation Target to a much broader concept of an inflation and this has in your view nothing to do with the election so I would like to believe the FED in saying that it is apolitical you would like to believe do you believe look I have no other reason um to believe otherwise well it was a weird it was weirdly devish and I keep bringing up that that suddenly it seems like the asymmetric risk is now of a recession after we've had two really hot inflation numbers I I was with you when when you asked me what what does the outlook look like I told you 55% soft Landing 30% recession 15% something better than than that and I think I think that they realize two things I think they realize that the economy is weakening but they've also realized or I hope they're going to realize that we are living in a world in which the supply side is the problem and that we need to tolerate slightly higher inflation if we don't want to sacrifice the economy and I think that's is is the problem because why is it because governments are still spending so much the United State's government is still spending so much money I mean it's it's weird to have fiscal doing one thing monetary doing the other thing correct and we should be doing more to enhance the supply site it is the problem first because of geopolitics we are redesigning Supply chains second companies are emphasizing resilience as much as efficiency so they are embarking on a more costly supply chain for good reasons third the labor market is not as flexible as we'd like it to be and then we're looking at a very uncertain energy transition we put all that together and Supply will not be flexible enough and the FED will have a choice either it accepts slightly higher inflation or it unnecessarily tips the economy into recession what's to say that the inflation remains slightly higher and doesn't get out of control that's the bet that's absolutely the risk but there's been no evidence so far of the anchoring inflation expectations and markets are behaving in in this way on the inflation side look at gold look at equities but then look at Treasury and you get no indication of inflation expectation like cross currents but but we said that there's a lot of animal spirits for the FED to be worrying about a recession and you said the economy is weakening well you I've seen two hot inflation numbers two straight months I've seen that I haven't so three straight but there're now they're saying it's transitory again I haven't seen where's the weakness in the economy you're talking about oh you're seeing it man facturing you're starting to to pick it up in other elements and the quits rate then there's a lag and and it's going to get it will continue to slow it will continue to slow and they're trying to make that slowing as orderly as possible it is fascinating to me that when CH pal was asked about financial conditions everybody that looks at broader Financial conditions says gosh they are so loose he dismissed that completely he's looking at a very very narrow and in fact Roger Ferguson repeated it today when he said we are in restrictive territory story because they're looking just at the policy rate relative to other indicators not at the holistic Financial conditions Roger said that but then he said and people can argue about how restrictive which makes me think that that's a judgment are we in rest are you sure we're in restrictive territory right now given the the economic backdrop we are more likely to be in restrictive than not restrictive okay but look elsewhere as well the bank of Japan surprised on the doish side the Swiss National Bank today surprised on the D side you're starting to get a signal from central banks that that I believe we're going to look back at this moment they all got elections coming up let me ask you uh you know did you see what we're spending next year a lot of money 7 trillion so Obama with first time ever we went over four trillion then co co pandemic we need money an extra two trillion got us to six9 or whatever CO's gone basically I mean I still see why are people still wearing masks I I maybe they got their reason but um why are we at 7 trillion why 7 trillion next year why because whether it's the us or elsewhere we ratchet we we we you never go back from the crisis levels we don't that's a bad neither do the fed's balance yeah the UK is the same thing it it is sad and at some point we're going to pay for this we will pay for this we have been saying this for so long that we're going to pay for it we're going to be talking to Maya mcginness a little later about some of the issues surrounding too we've been saying this for so long decades and decades when does it actually so remember the old pimple concept of the cleanest dirty shirt okay we live in a relative world so if we misbehave and others misbehave more we don't get punished because we've got the reserve currency and we are the place where people Outsource savings to so as long as we Remain the cleanest dirty shirt then we're not going to be punished if others start being cleaner than us then then this will change but right now we are the cleanest dirty shirt
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