저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
강한 경제가 실적을 떠받치고 있어 연준은 금리인하를 서두르지 않을 것이며, 오늘 FOMC는 인하 횟수를 3회에서 2회로 줄이는 매파적 방향일 것으로 봄. 최근 인플레 수치가 예상보다 높아 국채금리가 상승했음에도 증시는 신고가 행진. 기술주 모멘텀은 여전하며 강세장은 끝나지 않았고 올해 고점은 아직 아니라고 봄. 다만 오늘 2시 점도표 발표 후 단기 변동성(헤드 피치)이 있을 수 있음.
다듬은 글
for more on the markets right now we want to bring in Jeremy seagull he is Professor aharton School of Business he's also a chief Economist at Wisdom Tree and Jeremy the thing that um I've been watching Pretty closely lately is just how treasury yields have moved up they're a little lower today but they have moved up substantially in recent weeks as we got these hotter than anticipated inflation numbers and yet the stock market keeps hitting new highs If the Fed comes out and is hawkish today can that continue I think the FED will be hawkish today uh in fact I'm expecting the number of cuts to decline from the three that we saw in December uh to two and by the way I wouldn't be surprised if uh more people uh more fomc members uh predicted less than two than more than two uh I think the economy has remained very very strong uh stronger than the FED expected very definitely so they're in no rush uh to actually uh cut the rat so I I I I think um I'm not sure the market is quite prepared for that um uh you know I I've been hearing that most most observers still think that they're going to do three cuts by year end but but I I don't think so I think right now they're predicting too of course circumstances will evolve as they evolve they can't predict the future but at least at this particular point I think there's going to be a shift to um hawkishness today at the uh at the meeting Jeremy how much of the gains we're seeing in the market do you think is predicated on the FED being more aggressive with rate Cuts how much is Just based on this great economy itself um because I guess the the good news in all of this is if the fed's not cutting rates it's because the economy is looking pretty good absolutely I've said that before it's more important that the economy stays strong and the earnings stay up than whether the FED Cuts in June or or July or September or October uh as I said probably some of the worst news if if you heard they're going to cut a 100 basis points in the next three or four months I would say oh my God what happened this is not good so uh it is absolutely the strong economy that's driving the earnings and that's why they seem to be ignoring whether hey whether really going to have three or four Cuts because it is more important for economic strength for the stock market than when they're going to cut now what is important that is that the FED doesn't make a mistake and wait too long but there's no sign that if they see the economy really slowing that they won't then cut the rates I think that was the signal that was given last December that encouraged the market still on the table if we see weakness we will cut rates if we don't see weakness then uh at this particular point we're happy with the rates as they are uh you know their their measure of inflation is is stickier my measure is is it's lower because of the shelter Distortion but nonetheless the economic uh activity is the main uh mover of uh how they change the FED funds rate okay um if you're right they're more hawkish they don't cut rates we do continue to see this strong economy what's your guess for where stocks wind up um later this year well I I think that you know again they might hiccup at two o' when we get that two o'clock Dot Plot I I think there might be a hiccup I think uh during the news conference how is actually repeats a lot of what the projections are he's not going to back off although he's you know I I I think that I think that today might not be the best day for risk assets but I think that once people realize hey yeah exactly once he says well that's because the economy is so strong I don't think this bull market is over I think we still the momentum is still there still on the upside um uh I don't think we've seen the highs of the Year okay one quick question for you do you think the leadership remains with the technology stocks and others or do you think the Baton gets handed off and and Manufacturing and other sectors kind of pick up and run I think they will eventually but right now I still think the technology stocks have the momentum
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