저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 2019년 가장 큰 위험은 국제 불확실성과 정책 실수이며, 미국 경제 펀더멘털은 여전히 견고하다는 견해. 미국 경제와 시장 배경: 미국 경제와 노동시장, 기업 부문은 여전히 강하다고 봄. 다만 수년간의 풍부하고 예측 가능한 유동성이 되돌려지는 과정이며, 작년의 '모든 것이 오르던' 환경은 예외였고 정상화는 장기적으로 좋은 일이라고 봄. 시장 변동성 전망: 2월과 같은 20% 급락 재현은 없다고 봄. 2월 당시 글로벌 동반 성장 기대가 있었으나 현재 유럽·중국·일본은 둔화되고 불확실성이 큼. ECB는 더 약한 경제에서 긴축 중이며 부채 부담과 정치 불확실성도 큼. 연준 평가: 연준은 비판을 덜 받아야 하지만 소통에 책임이 있음. 대차대조표 관리를 자동조종으로 둔 것과 금리정책에 과도한 부담을 준 것이 두 가지 큰 실수였고, 해외 파급과 기술적 시장 민감성을 더 고려한다는 점을 설득해야 한다고 봄. 투자 전략: 기술적으로 취약한 시장에서는 과도한 하락 후 반등(오버슈트)을 활용하되, 현금창출력과 좋은 사업모델을 가진 기업 중심의 종목 선별이 핵심. 주식뿐 아니라 채권에서도 종목 선별 환경이라고 설명. 최대 리스크: 시장에 반영되지 않은 가장 큰 위험은 정치로 인한 정책 마비 같은 큰 정책 실수이며, 유럽에서 이미 나타나고 있다고 봄. 중국의 정책 실수와 중앙은행이 변동성을 증폭시키는 상황도 경계. 유동성과 매도 심리: 중앙은행 지원기에 시스템이 최종 사용자에게 유동성을 과하게 약속했고, 사람들이 실제 유동성이 기대보다 적다는 것을 깨달으면서 매도 압력이 발생한다고 봄. 개인투자자가 시장에 대한 신뢰를 잃는 것도 위험으로 지적. 변동성 전망: 당분간 높은 변동성이 이어질 것으로 보며, 현재의 변동성은 억눌렸던 변동성이 제자리를 찾는 과정이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
you've been sort of positive about the underlying fundamentals recently Mohammed I think and you've been of a voice of calm and what has been pretty turbulent for obviously for the past two months where are you today I'm still constructive on the US economy there are concerns out there particularly that this market volatility will contaminate sentiment both for households and companies but the underlying economies remains strong and the labor market remains strong in the business sector remain strong I think though we are simply paying back years of ample and predictable liquidity having the coupled asset values from fundamentals and having changed behaviors and now we're going back to something more normal which is good for the long term but we've got to navigate this journey well so let's say the old normal is what you're you got a coin that term I think Muhammad so we're going away from your new normal back to the old normal basic there yeah I mean the big aberration and markets isn't this year it was last year where everything went white for investors they got great returns they got virtually no volatility and every correlation broke and I say but that was the aberration and now we are transitioning back to something more normal which by the way is better over the long term we just have to minimize to risks one is that bad technicals contaminate the economy in the US and two is that people lose confidence in the functioning of market I think one thing that we have to worry about is that the retail investors is looking at these route markets and saying I don't get this maybe I shouldn't be in these markets to begin with and that's a real danger usually you can get to a studio or a set what do we talk about st.
Barths here where why why the phone why the phone or Mohammed give us a let us see it into the lifestyles of the rich and famous where where are you where are you are you doing you're in a secure undisclosed location no I'm at home and my pajamas at 5:30 in the morning that's fair you got one of those little like things in back a little that's what I sort of see yeah I want to hear more about it so does this finally work itself out Mohammed where we don't worry about another 20 percent down in the stock market or I want to ask it another very similar question we've had these periods in the stock market where they've kind of ripped down over the last couple years one earlier this year in February going back 2015-16 and then it comes right back so just to piggy back on Jim's question I think what I'm hearing you say is that's not gonna happen again yeah it's not gonna happen because unlike February the global economy is more uncertain remember February we were still in love with the synchronised pickup in global growth okay now we understand that Europe China and Japan are slowing and are more in certain secondly we have central banks that are stepping away I'm amazed how much flag the Fed has got relative to the ECB the ECB is tightening into a much slower economy bigger debt loads and a more uncertain political environment so you know understand that this is a very different route bank environment and that's not going to go away so no this is not gonna be like February this isn't what the Fed get less criticism I think that that first of all I think the Fed should get less criticism as to what it's doing but it should be held accountable for how it communicates what it's doing you know I was on set a few weeks ago and I said they made two big mistakes so you cannot emphasize that balance sheet management is an automatic pilot that was way too much of a burden on the interest rate policy and secondly you've got to convince people that you're much more sensitive to spill backs from the rest of the world and some technical markets if you do that I think the Fed can navigate this period TV is kind of fight for have a much tougher time so Muhammad in in an old normal environment what Gruber stocks what asset classes what works so I think what works here is what works in technically vulnerable markets which is pick up the overshoot when you get these sort of violent technical adjustments the good gets so not with the bad so there are lots of companies out there with some balance sheets very high cash generation good business models they've got a navigate through this fine but they're going to create for a while at ridiculous levels and and that's what people should focus on it is really a security selection environment across the board not only in stocks by the way in bonds as well my biggest risk for next year that's not really known in markets not priced in I think the biggest risk is is it's a huge policy mistake that you get paralysis because of politics and you've seen this in Europe already you get China miss stepping and then the central bank's turn out to be a massive amplifier of volatility you know they've got to keep their eyes open on this because the rest of the world is in much worse shape than the US is and that's a reality we have to understand well Muhammad so 2019 do you expect elevated volatility to continue this week I do it and then I keep on looking at at a big heart and saying the real aberration is is not what we're seeing now the real aberrations were coming from a period of repressed volatility it wasn't low volatility was repressed volatility and now of all is finding its its own level and we're gonna figure out and we are figuring out and that the system over-promised liquidity to end-users during periods of ample central bank support and now people are realizing they don't have as much liquidity as they thought they did and when that happens you end up selling whatever you can sell not what you should sell you
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