저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 지금 시장은 과거처럼 안전하지 않으며, 변동성 속에서 장기 투자자는 고품질 종목을 분할 접근하는 것이 좋다는 취지. 시장 상황: 2018년 12월 말 급락 후 이틀간 반등했으나, 10월 이후 롤링 약세장이 이어졌다고 진단. 과매도(S&P 오실레이터 과도 하락) 상태이며 2008~2009년과 달리 연준 실수 등 인위적 매도 성격이라고 봄. 관찰 포인트: 2400선(S&P) 지지 여부, VIX가 2996 부근에서 크게 오르지 않는지, 오실레이터의 음(-) 전환 여부, 유가 바닥 확인을 내일 아침 체크 포인트로 제시. 반도체·종목: 마이크론은 데이터센터 우려로 하락했으나 큰 움직임을 보였고 긍정적 신호로 해석. 세일즈포스도 긍정 신호로 언급. 반도체는 선도 섹터 중 하나가 무너진 흐름이 언급됨. 금리·채권: 연준이 금리를 두 차례 더 올릴 경우 CD 등 예금 금리가 경쟁력을 높여 주식시장으로의 자금 유입이 줄 수 있다고 우려. 미국 금리 방향에 대한 명확한 수치 전망은 없음. 소매·기타: 리테일은 '그저 그렇다'는 평가이며 연말 쇼핑은 실제로 좋지 않았다는 입장. 소비자신뢰지수 실망. FANG 종목 중에서는 알파벳이 상대적으로 저렴하다고 언급, 아마존도 긍정적으로 언급. 페이스북은 부정적, 제이미 다이먼(JP모건), 더그 맥밀런(월마트), 제임스 퀸시(코카콜라) 등 전통 기업 CEO는 신뢰. 투자 조언: 나이(60대는 CD 등 안전자산 검토, 30대는 공격적 접근 가능)와 투자 기간에 따라 달리 접근. 고품질 기업(일라이릴리, 월마트, JP모건) 장기 보유는 괜찮을 것이라고 봄. 충동적 매매 경계.
다듬은 글
hey Jim we knew you can stay away from this wild market so what's your take on the past two days first thanks for letting me play listen this great that we're doing a special I think that we do we saw some things is obviously 2400 only SP battleground but we saw some things I really like and one isn't that when we've been this oversold I use the S&P oscillator I pay for typically when it goes over ten you have to buy except with one particular instance which was 2008-2009 I think this is much more of a man-made sell-off I think the Fed made some mistakes I think that we got a little too uh negative about what could happen a trade deal and a lot of people just capitulated in panic but the thing I've got to tell you all right listen door shows this point was I am reading way too many people say this is exactly a bear market spike I want to point out since I've been trading since 79 every bear market ends for the spike so that's not doing dispositive what matters to me is are we going to have more events like what we had since October third fourth we end up more Fed rate hikes without really a lot of consequences from the feds point of view meaning they can do whatever they want no one seems to mind of the president are we going to have any chance at all of a trade deal I think we can is oil which has been straight down since October 3rd October 4th bottoming I think it might be because this is these are prices where the permanent can't withstand the pump so I see some positives and I do think by the way that you know people are just wait to pay we have had an ongoing rolling crash for months and it's not like the Arntzen bargains it 13 times earning yeah I mean it's been a rolling bear market exactly to your point we saw semiconductors go by the wayside we saw a fan go by the way I mean it just was sector by sector by sector so here we are now Jim what do you tell investors to do I mean when you see a terrible Christmas Eve and then you get two sharp days higher with this big reversal today by the way do you start getting out that buy list I think that you can take a look at some of the serious destruction high-quality names you mentioned a semi trucks but I'm not a fan of micron that's not anything that's all that's data of all the thing that drove micron down was a belief that the data center was flowing but we had the biggest move in a long time and it's plunking and we big moving service now be grooving in Salesforce I think that those are dick ative of the factory I don't want people longer-term to point into those is fine but indicative that there's some things going on that are positive and so I think that yeah you gotta figure out what you're willing what your time horizon is I mean let's say you're in your sixties or seventies so I want you to start committing money and this market is not for that kind of market but I think there's a lot of stops for people in 2030s for you just put it as a again don't freak out and find some stocks that you like if you want to we call them their bunny stops look it is it is not a market for the squeamish but all but I'm looking to start like a Walmart that is just going straight down held 85 didn't take out 88 today I say to myself you know what that's a sign of strength not we just and I'm seeing more stocks that have shown strength in the last two days than in a long time so yeah I mean I it was supposed to go down baby wasn't it and then it did but it didn't go down all the way so I think we're okay you tweeted moments ago I believe that if you're in your sixties and you're just talking about this a look at your allocation because adding CDs may be a way to go here in this sort of volatile market which has not done a long time remember our faithful friend Jay Powell admitted to the see is your best friend and that sort of the problem I mean if we're going to do two more rate hikes he's just going to make CDs more and more competitive and make it so that there's less and less of it ability to be able to invest in the stock market which i think would be a shame but I think look he can walk back what he what he have to do but the fact is it CDs are really yielding a lot night I feel like that this market is no longer as safe as it's been because you don't like it when it goes up a thousand and down 800 that's not healthy but I also think that if you've got the time horizon to own a high-quality Eli Lilly or a high-quality Walmart Walmart high-quality KP Morgan I don't think you're gonna do badly but you can't look at it like you used to because it'll make it stick yeah what do you make a retail stocks at this point Jim and we got some great MasterCard spending data we also though got consumer confidence data today which was very disappointing so what do you make of this beaten-down group at this point no that group peaked but it pretty much at the same kind of Brian Cornell from Target legendarily said look this is about as good as a unit this is a great if she's ever seen it which then became as good as it definitely get I think that retails okay not great not bad and one of the reasons why it's okay not great not bad frankly is because the Fed has just created a level of fright that makes it so people are saying you know what my wealth effects as I checked my statement which they're going to do in that couple weeks well maybe I'm not as wealthy as I thought I know that the mall itself was terrible it was really online online terrific but the fact is is that there's a lot of stores that are doing very badly and this whole notion that it was a great Christmas is there across the board but it's not looking at brick and mortar and brick and mortar in the mall was bad it wasn't okay it was bad people have to start recognizing that yeah there are a lot of people out there Jim and Fangfang plus names they're on their shopping list is that is that a fool's game or is that a place you'd go we have a lot of stocks that are very peaty down and you can pick one of those when I created Fang I I didn't think it was going to be a diversified portfolio so nobody will get as diversified or there in the ETF that is all bang give me a break if someone put them together with a pick one and the one I would think I think is the cheapest one is alphabet' Amazon a couple days ago was pretty amazing agamas ons okay but you know what the idea of just running in saying this is the bottom and Facebook like I've heard people say who knows I mean Facebook did some change today to their Instagram feed which was stupid as all get-out they're proving to be I don't want you to work war on toward people who were like top of the class at Harvard but wow what a bunch of war on I mean can they get anything right and so I I can't back on those guys but I came back on traditional industrialists who are doing a good job I came back one look I think I can bank on on Jamie Dimon without much of a problem I can certainly bank on Doug McMillon dicey back so many CEOs who very very good I can bank one James Quincy at coca-cola you okay but you know pick one fine but don't pick and eat yes it's made a surprise but that's just stupid people put the other things make big beads or just great alright those smart words Jim in terms of what we watch in tomorrow session tomorrow morning you wake up in the morning what are the first things you look at is tells for the market trade that day oil oil and then oil yeah because oil is the most is the kind of lead indicator of what the algos are looking at second you want to see this twenty four hundred levels is 2436 really but twenty four hundred levels touch such an incredible battle grants amazing I want to see if the market goes down I want to see the VIX not go up much from 2996 I like the way the VIX acted in the last hour and I do want to see the oscillator stay is negative interesting up the oscillators were negative today than yesterday I like that we've seen this pattern are this kind of pattern again in a bunch of situations where you had to do some buying but don't buy up I mean look what they gave you today they gave you just a down to three percent Jeff and if you buy up I'm telling you they're going to make an idiot you
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