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and now let's go over and meet tonight's special guest Peter Lynch Peter welcome hello great happy to have you in my new environment fantastic Peter Lynch is an authentic Hall of Fame investor under his management from May 1977 to May 1990 the Fidelity mellin Fund was the best performing mutual fund in the world since then he has stayed active as a writer teacher and philanthropist while also serving as Vice chairman of fidelity management and research Peter many viewers want to know whether this Market is totally different whether your old view that people should find Buy and Hold good stocks is no longer applicable what do you think I think the same rules applied 50 years ago applied 5 years ago apply 20 years from now you first of all you have to know what you own whether it's a fund or a stock and you have to have a reason for it and you ought to be able to explain 11-year-old and two minutes or less why own this and and this sucker is going up is not a good reason I've tried that one it's not a doesn't work speak to the question of trust which Marty just expressed considerable concern about it I did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time I think this is really terrible this week what you mentioned about worldom and Anderson I mean these are real problems but you just have to have faith I mean we've had this before I think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses I think you know people will be punished for it I think there'll be surveillance I think board of directors going to be more careful I think this is what's happened after you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's sad it's a you can't legislate Integrity what would you say to investors now who say Peter everything I own's gone down uh it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at a bottom uh should I get out and go into CDs or go bars and and opium or whatever right right well basically you look now you have three choices I think if if you're investor you can put your money in money market fund and get 17 15 one six and and it's tax at a 40% rate or you can buy 10-year Treasury and get 47 that's tax at a 40% rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than 47 or 17 so I would have some of my money now it's up to the person to decide how much they want to have in the stock market market for some people 10% is aggressive for some people 50% is the right amount it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100% And if you're 45 you should be 50% if you're 60 you should be zero and I guess burping a lot I know what the rules are and people at 60 but they that I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you confident that stocks will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think companies going to make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason some companies don't do well zero Hawes make a lot less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less but a lot most more companies ear doesn't work speak to the question of trust which Marty just expressed considerable concern about it I did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time I think this is really terrible this week what you mentioned about Worldcom and Anderson I mean these are real problems but you just have to have faith I mean we've had this before I think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses I think you know people will be punished for it I think there'll be surveillance I think board of directors going to be more careful I think this What's happen after you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's sad it's a you can't legislate Integrity what would you say to investors now who say Peter everything I own's gone down uh it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at of bottom right uh should I get out and go into CDs or gold bars and and opium or whatever right right well basically you look now you have three choices I think if if you're an investor you can put your money in money market fund and get 17 15 16 and and it's tax at a 40% rate or you can buy a 10-year Treasury and get 47 that's tax at a 40% rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than 47 or 17 so I would have some of my money now it's up to the person to decide how much they want to have in the stock market for for some people 10% is aggressive for some people 50% is the right amount it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100% And if you're 45 you should be 50% if you're 60 you should be zero and I guess burping a lot I know what the rules are in people at 60 but they that I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you confident that stocks will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think companies going to make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason and some companies don't do well zero Haw is make a lot less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less but a lot most more companies earning a lot more money than they were and that's why stocks go up corporate profits gone up 40 fold since we were two stock market's up 40 fold it's 25 years since you started running mellan you had been director of research for Fidelity You' been with them since I guess 69 what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make well I think not looking at the balance sheet this mistake I've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets they own their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they have and take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that with a company and I've seen I've seen investors look at companies that may let's say looking at two companies they're very depressed they're reach at $4 a share but one company's and they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company has 100 million in cash and no debt and one company has no cash and 100 million a debt they're about to blow Taps on the second company so you and you could do this if you get through eighth grade math and you get anywhere near 88 equals 16 you can do this look at a company's financial position it's impossible to go bankrupt you don't have any debt I mean you get the Irving G Hallberg Lifetime Achievement Award I think you're bad man I mean how could you do that when you were actively managing money you presumably were under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes I think my greatest mistakes are you know it's it's funny on a stock all you can lose is 100% I've done that but your great mistakes is selling a good company and then doubles then it triples and cuples because you make a lot of mistakes and so those ones that go up 10 fold I call them the 10 Baggers so some my mistakes just saying oh my God this stock is too high and I was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am I in in this baseball game I sold Toys R R Us way too early it went up 20 fold after I sold I did the same thing at Home Depot those are probably my two greatest mistakes I ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying if it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with Growth Company you have to say Walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15% of the United States and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go to 19 why can't they go to 23 so for the next four decades they around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock I have a 10 year story a 20- year story I'd be able to write that down and follow that that's what I do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue yes we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in America have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy a company to grow then if it's a textile company or it's a electronics company or software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens to the market if the Dow Jones today was a th000 or 500 you would made a lot of money in McDonald's you would have made a lot of money in Johnson Johnson you want to made a lot of money in Gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 th000 you would have lost money in Burlington Industries I recommended that in 1969 I think it's I think it's gone from 34 to two with no stock splits because the earnings have been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world don't out a thousand I sometimes get angry mail particularly to in bare markets saying so and so recommended such and such and it went down well how often did you come up with a clinker well this this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of 10 if the times you write you make a double and triple it off that's all those times you lose 20 30% So when you buy a stock you to say yourself how much can I lose and how much can I make and you ought to be able to make a lot you stocks are risky I mean look look at how much we' lost on AT&T look how much we lost in Xerox these were Quality Companies you know you can lose a lot in a stock you got to say yourself how much can I make because I want to buy a stock if I'm right I'm going to make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day I think the Market's going to go up you know I keep calling a lot my companies so I keep calling the companies you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing the as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view on the economy now well I I look at the economy I look historically economy I don't look at the future I mean that's weather forecasting I look I look at the economy backwards see what's happening and the economy looks very good to me right now the housing market looks terrific I me the the auto market looks good the consumer looks good there's a lot of good elements to it and if this is we've had nine recessions since World War II and they've average usually about a 2% decline in the workforce you know it's terrible there's about a million and a half people have lost their jobs in this decline but that would only about a 1% decline in the workforce so so far this has been a mild recession has been mild in technology has been mild in Telecom has been mild for you know if the company's making fiber optics but it's been a it's been a normal recession and I would never bet against the American economy it's powerful you were never a big fan of the Technology Group are you now I've actually started looking I'm a little early on these things I started looking at in January and February and I've been researching the companies um they're very complex because they're they're they're if there's a thousand technology companies they're all a little bit different they're not like a bunch of banks are very similar so you have to be careful I'm looking at companies that are selling close to cash they're an industry leader and they're down 95% well our panelists are a little different too let's turn it over to them starting with Marty swag well let's talk about a little different Market first we had a bubble here in NASDAQ it collapsed it went down about as much as the Japanese Market did uh the economy is iffy some people are comparing our situation now to Japan God forbid 10 years ago uh what do you think well I think that's a very interesting correlation I mean the Japanese market and economy has been incredibly weak they've had a 12year recession but there you had a real problem with the banking system you basically had let's say average building of commercial building went from 50 million to 500 million a bank then made a 110% loan against it a $550 million loan then the building went back to 50 and they're stuck with a $450 million loan and the the government never cut taxes it actually raised taxes I mean they did everything wrong and they the companies didn't cut costs so they just sort of sat there hop things would get better we our our companies act fast they start cutting cost real quickly and and our government is fortunately this is rare in our history we went into this recession running a surplus first time ever the system is supposed to be in our country we should run surpluses in the good times and then in the bad times we run deficits well guess what it's working right they didn't have that in Japan and Japan now has wasted 12 years I don't think this it has all I don't this look to me at all like Japan we're we're near we're starting to get better already good Peter Lou asked you a question about sort of the typical investor mistakes and and when you started in the business I know the average investor held mutual funds for you know 16 17 years and now it's down to less than two years do you think that's one of the problems have time Horizons gotten Too Short well I think also what they might they have to say what do I want do I need the money in a year you need the money in five years you're a terrible investor you need the money in the year if you need it for college to send your kids there for a wedding you're not going to be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should I have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do I want I want two or three growth funds what's my mix I like and you want to say is aggressive you know some people aggressive is 50% so I would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu in a restaurant they should look it over and decide what they like and then stay with it and if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they add to maybe they should add to the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same so you get whips saw if you're all in one area does poly for three years you say get me out of that you go into some other area and that does badly for three years you could be in it forever and never make money Peter does this Market remind you of any that you've been through before I would say 90 the 90 bear Market is very similar in many ways I mean think Saddam Hussein takes over Kuwait you know we sent 500,000 troops to Saudi Arabia all the people are saying it's going to be Iraq's the third largest army in the world it's going to be another Vietnam we had a recession we had all these banks in trouble right now our banks are in terrific shape which a m major positive so that was a very scary environment and we had default I mean it was an ugly environment everybody was afraid so I think that was a very similar market and I think 8182 was ugly too we had you know 20% prime rate Double J in inflation Double J in unemployment so those are scary markets and then top it all off the 7374 Market as you remember the nifty50 we had that we had it in technology stocks so we had 95% declines and you know so we we combined three markets into one special case it's been very fast we have less than a minute left those those who were were who are less sanguin about the economy than you've just expressed often site the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from Surplus to deficit as negatives you seem to indicate that they're positives why well I think I think the government running a deficit is terrific that's the way it should work I mean when they were running a $200 billion Surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running a100 billion deficit it's pumping 100 billion in it's a cushion so you don't see a double dip recession coming I don't know I I can't predict the future that's a healthy thing to have buffers in the economy we've had nine recessions World War II we've got out every one of them the system works if you could give one sentence of advice to scare investors right now what would it be I think you ought to see some kids you know hire a 8-year-old hire a six-year-old just watch them they don't know who alen Greenspan is they don't about the shape of the yield curve they're optimistic about the future we'll be fine for the next 30 40 years let's hope you're right Peter courage and persistence they've worked in the past there we do have to stop with thanks to Peter Lynch and our panelists next week we'll look into what's really ahead for the US economy with the renowned Financial wizard who his peers consider the guy most likely to know Ed Heyman who for an incredible 22 years running has been voted the single best Economist in Wall Street when he talks big money listens meanwhile this has been LS Riser Wall Street good night Lewis Riser Wall Street is produced by CNBC in association with Riser television the 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