저자: 미상 · 외국인
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최근 블랙록 CEO 래리 핑크의 경기침체 우려 및 약 20% 추가 하락 가능성 발언과 웨드부시 애널리스트 댄 아이브스의 관세 정책 비판을 소개. 아이브스는 50% 중국·32% 대만 관세가 미국 기술산업을 10년 후퇴시키고 공급망 역전 등 대형 피해를 초래할 것이라 경고. 진행자는 관세 정책이 충분히 검토되지 않았으며 모든 당사자에게 부정적 영향을 줄 수 있다고 평가. 다만 영상 내 자산별 가격 방향에 대한 직접적 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome back to the channel. One thing that we are seeing a lot in recent weeks is a lot of key experts coming out and essentially expressing their concerns for the current market conditions that we find ourselves in. One massive and prominent voice that we've seen in the last couple of days has actually been the CEO of BlackRock who is of course Larry Frink.
We've covered him in detail before and he said that he basically believes that the world could already be in a recession and that we could be looking at another 20% decline from current levels. And this was only published a week ago. So there are a number of reasons for that and we've covered that in its own video.
But he's not the only person suggesting this as we've actually seen Dan Ies also talking about Trump's tariffs speaking about how they are quote the biggest debacle ever seen in the markets. Now, this is really quite big news and again, we're seeing so many people now coming out and saying these sorts of things.
So much concern being expressed all across the markets in all different areas. Again, kind of rightly so. So, let's have a little bit of a read. Let's find out what the latest is. So, yeah, the technology sector could face a decade long setback from the latest round of tariffs on China and Taiwan if implemented in their current form.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ies warned on Saturday. US stocks plunged at the time of this article being written. Um, as we all know, you know, massive declines that we saw. We saw the Dow Jones dropping over 2,000 points, 5.5%, its worst day since June 2020. And that follows a 1600 point decline on the Thursday.
It was a really incredible time. Same was true with the S&P. Same uh sort of decline, worst levels since 2020. Now what we're seeing from denives is that if these levels and these tariffs in their current form that is hold there is no debate it would set the US tech world back a decade in their opinion whilst China would be the clear winner and there's no debate I've said in a client note the US is 4% of the world's population and 26% of its GDP because of the US consumer and we ultimately believe it's one of the biggest assets in the country and in the tech world and Silicon Valley.
Now, Ives pointed out that progress made by American firms in artificial intelligence, naming companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Open AI, Amazon, Alphabet, and essentially a few others. Right? For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to AI and its fourth industrial revolution, he said.
But one day, this tariff policy, if enacted, will create an upside down supply chain. Massive costs, major capex delays due to uncertainty and slowdown in US tech innovation, not a debate. Drawing on more than two decades of covering the sector, Ives called the proposed tariffs the biggest debacle the markets have ever seen and labeled it a purely self-inflicted issue by Trump.
It's very easy to say build America behind microphone in the beltway, he added. But the reality is so much different. It's almost a scary concept. It takes four to five years to build a factory in the US. US labor force and cost structure goes against the entire concept of the modern supply chain. Ives warned that the 50% tariffs on Chinese and 32% tariffs on Taiwanese goods could effectively shut down the US tech sector.
So this is really quite crazy. And just for a bit of an example of this, okay, the suggestion is um if we look at something like an iPhone, iPhones made in the US would be significantly more expensive, costing about $3,500 in opposed to the $1,000 as of current. And the trade and AI revolution would be significantly slowed down.
The economic pain that will be brought by these tariffs is hard to describe. The reciprocal tariffs would cause an economic armageddon and stop US tech world in its tracks. What a crazy suggestion, right? What an absolutely insane proposal. And this is the thing. It's not really that insane for, of course, Dan Ives to think this.
I'd actually kind of see where he's coming from with this. I think it's a fairly reasonable stance to take. But this should be seen as a massive warning. You know, that's a big thing about this tariff debate. It seems just looking at it externally to not be that well thought through. We're seeing massive swings in the markets.
Investors don't like this. We are seeing companies we've covered so many companies right where the CEOs where big management people are warning that these tariffs if implemented as they are being proposed at the minute and if a trade war comes could have a massive detrimental effect mainly to the US consumer mainly to the US companies.
it would not necessarily be as beneficial as first estimated and do bear in mind like Dan I've said in the current market it is unfortunate but the truth is if these things were to be made in in western countries where wages are quite high could we make them for the same prices if we're looking at iPhones being costing as much as $3,500 and the impact that we are seeing potentially coming for cars in cost the impact in so many things is it realist istic.
Is it viable that these tariffs can work? Have they been thought out at all? And who will they help? It seems that a lot of these policies look like they would have a massively negative impact basically to all parties involved. And we're seeing so many people now coming out and issuing warnings around concerns for so many big brands.
It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Guys, make sure to leave me a comment. Tell me your thoughts in the comment section. And thank you for watching the video all the way till the end. See you again soon.
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