저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 거시적으로 불확실성이 큰 시기이며 단기 하드랜딩 위험이 높고 인플레이션이 구조적으로 높게 유지될 가능성이 크다. 핵심 주장: 2020년대 이전의 저인플레·저금리 시대가 끝나고 공급충격과 부채 누적이 맞물린 '스태그플레이션성 불안정기'가 올 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션·금리: 선진국 인플레이션이 2% 목표를 크게 웃돌며, 임금상승률(미국 5~6%)이 높아 근원물가가 2%로 쉽게 내려오지 않는다고 봄. 중앙은행이 예상보다 금리를 더 올려야 하고 이는 하드랜딩과 금융 스트레스를 부른다고 경고. 부채: 전 세계 민간+공공 부채가 GDP 대비 1970년대 100%에서 현재 약 350%로 증가. 금리 상승이 민간·공공 부문 부채위기로 이어질 수 있다는 우려. 공급충격: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 장기화, 중국 코로나 재확산, 이스라엘의 이란 공격 가능성 등으로 에너지·원자재 가격 급등 위험. 골드만삭스 예상 인용: 올해 글로벌 상품가격 40% 이상 상승 가능성. 지정학·탈세계화: 미-중 냉전 심화, 공급망 블록화(프렌드쇼어링), 보호무역으로 비용 상승. 자산시장: 과거 'everything bubble'이 붕괴 국면으로 전환, 위험자산 대폭 조정 경험. 구체적 종목 언급 없음. 인도 전망: 인구·성장잠재력 측면에서 중장기적으로 세계 주요국이 될 수 있으나, 대기업 과점(크로니 캐피털리즘)이 경쟁과 총요소생산성을 저해해 잠재성장률 정체 우려. 조건/리스크: 전쟁 확대, 중국 방역, 금리 인상 폭, 부채 상환 부담이 핵심 변수. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 하드랜딩 가능성을 우려하며, 인플레가 구조적으로 높게 유지될 것이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
foreign authorities it's really a great pleasure and honor to be back in Italy I used to come regularly to India before kovid and during covet everything was remote I think we're all a little bit zoomed out and now it's a great pleasure to see people in person rather than virtually it's always great to come back to India because this is a strong democracy and a strong economy and actually I do believe that India could become the most important country in the world over the medium term I think there are three factors are going to lead it's one you have a population is now the largest in the world and it's young and growing and that's a source of high potential growth secondly your per capita income is still much lower than the one of China about a quarter but that implies that with the right policy potential growth can be seven percent or even higher during the last few decades China was growing faster than India in the next few decades India is going to grow much faster than China so it's going to become a strong economic power and three India is going to also become a major geoeconomic and geopolitical power first in Asia and globally and as we know there are geopolitical tensions and one of the rising powers in the world even from a security point of view is going to be in India I'm here to talk about what's the global economic Outlook and realistically if we look around the world we live in a period of unprecedented unusual unexpected uncertainty so for use I recently published a new book titled Mega threats 10 dangerous Trends in parallel future and how to survive them any right dress in this book a number of on one side economic monetary and financial threats that imperil our economic and monitoring financial future but also non-economic threats that are correlated and connected with the economic ones even if you think about the economic threats they're very different in many ways from those who were facing even a few years ago for example until two years ago in most advanced economies they was worried about low flation it's not deflation central banks had a hard time to achieve a growth and inflation of two percent inflation was persistently below today instead an advanced economies in an Emerging Market we have to worry about inflation to be too high rather than too low and inflation has been significant about the two percent Targets in advance economies a couple of years ago we were worrying about what people refer to as secular stagnation a situation where they were excess savings low aggregate demand that led to weak economic growth but also to low operation if not if today we have to worry about the opposite phenomenon they discover stockflation situation where you have inflation and potential recession at the same time in advanced economies because there are a number of aggregate negative supply shops that eating economic growth while raising the cost of Productions a couple of years ago people in Japanese columns were worried about interest rates being too low about 18 trillion dollars equivalent of public debt in Europe in Japan at negative nominal interest rates up to maturities of 10 years today the opposite problem because of rising inflation central banks are increasing policy rates long-term interest rates are going higher but these high interest rates in a world where there is too much debt private debt and public debt that has gone from 100 of GDP in the 70s to 350 percent of GDP lasted globally those Rising interest rates create the risk of that crisis in the private sector and the public sector in the country in the sectors where those debt ratios are high in the public sector religion to explicit that there is even implicit that coming from unfunded liabilities coming from aging or populations and unfunded pension and aging expenses for healthcare a few years ago we were worried about the excesses of hyper globalization but now we have to worry about the opposite we have to worry about deglobalization about protectionism but restriction to trading Goods in services in the month of capital labor technology that information we're going the world that is becoming fragmented if not vulcanized a couple of years ago we were worried about the everything bubble it was an asset bubble in most risky and other assets was a boom and a bubble today we're worried about acid deflation the bubble has gone bust lasted was a massive correction of U.S Global equity and other risky assets and now we have going from a boom in a bubble to a bus and a crash in financial markets so the nature of economic monitoring and Financial Risk is very different today the one it was even a couple of years ago but in addition to this economic monitoring Financial threats we're also facing a number of them that are non-economic ones that are important and they interact with economic ones for example we live in a world that is characterized by a geopolitical depression whereas number of revisionist powers China Russia Iran North Korea and Pakistan are challenging the economic monitoring Financial trading political and geopolitical order the U.S Europe the west and their allies around the world including Asia created after World War II already have a hot war between Russia and Ukraine it could become unconventional and involve NATO it was recently in Israel Where in Israel there is a cognition that Iran is becoming effectively a threshold nuclear State and Israel have to decide whether to attack Iran or is the terrorists and of course the cold war between us and China is becoming colder by the day with the risk eventually even on the military conflict to make sure of Taiwan so this geopolitical depression is leading to a decoupling the fragmentation of the global economy balkanization of Global Supply chains we've gone from free trade to secure trade from offshoring to reassuring and French foreign from just in time Global Supply chains just in case that are redundant and going from efficiency to security of course as economic cost secondly in terms of non-economic threats with global climate change that is becoming a disaster last year in India and Pakistan this region of the world you had massive droughts followed by Mass it floods the damage coming from climate change is here of course the third threat is the one of global of global pandemics covid-19 unfortunately is not going to be last a most severe pandemic there'll be other ones neither what rest I may prevent them or the economic visceral costs are going to be YouTube we live also in the world in which now there is massive technological innovation AI machine learning robotic automation and a Quantum Computing the economic time may increase and they will maybe eventually increase in productivity growth but there is a dark side to this Technology Innovation that could be eventually permanent massive technological unemployment among low and medium value added blue colors and white colors and these types of innovation unfortunately increase in Commonwealth inequality because they're Capital intensity skill buyers and labor savings so AI is an opportunity but if not manager right is a threat and finally on the political side because of economic malaise because of rise in income and wealth inequality because many young Generations feel their own economic opportunities are not going to be as good as their own appearance there is now a backlash against the liberal democracy and unfortunately many parts of the world both Advanced economic Emerging Markets some extremists radical populist regimes of the extreme rights or the extreme left are becoming to power so liberal democracy is being challenged as well now I talk about this phenomenon and the interaction between economic economic threats as Mega threats but there are other similar terms this past year the financial times talked about the cost of holy crisis and made it one of the buzzwords of the year it's the same idea that economic and non-economic threats that are feeding on each other I was just in December presenting my book in a debate with the head of the IMF Miss Christina georgieva and she has spoken about a conference of calamities like we have never seen since World War II and last month I was in Davos for the world economic forum and the global risk report of the wife was exactly about holy crisis Mega threats in interaction between these economic and non-economic trials so whether you call the mega threats or whether you call them polycrisis or whether you call it the conference of calamities or whether as the wife says will have the most turbulent and unstable decade in decades coming where facing a series of intergonnected threats that impairing our economic financial future but also the future of humanity and the future of the planet because of climate change because of global pandemics now of course in the short run the kind of risk that we have to face are those of the risk of inflation or potential recession and stagnation and mounting debt ratios that are becoming unsustainable if interested they're going to go higher in normal and real firms I think that the great moderation unfortunately is over the period of low inflation and relatively stable economic roads and you might be going to a period that is more unstable what I call Great stagflationary and that instability of course the causes of the rise in inflation in advanced economies and some Emerging Markets after covet were several on one side bad policy loose monitoring fiscal and credit easing too much and for too long but it was also bad luck a series of negative aggregate supply shocks that hit the global economy first of all the negative impact of covet on supply of goods Services shutting down economic activity impairing Global Supply chains and reducing the labor Supply secondly the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in commodity prices oil natural gas Industrial Metals green Metals food and fertilizers and finally until recently the zero coffee policy of China was also hampered in production in China in creating further bottlenecks in Global Supply chains however even if as hopefully some of these negative negative Supply shocks are going to phase out maybe covet is over maybe eventually the Russian original train will stop now the time has eliminated the zero coverage policy those bottles should go away there are some more medium to long-term negative aggregate supply shocks that can reduce potential growth can increase the cost of production and reduce monetary fiscal policy can lead to inflation and to recession and stagnation and we're facing a number of more medium-term negative aggregate supply shops I don't have time to go over all of them but think of it this way globalization and protection is two re-shoring or French Shoring and producing up where is low cost but where is higher cost aging of population advanced economies but also in major Emerging Markets like China like Russia like Taiwan like Koreans on restriction to migration in urban Us in the past migration reduced wage growth a geopolitical depression and decoupling is leading the fragmentation of the global economy global climate change that increases the cost of food because of desertification lack of water and to other channel increases energy cost pandemics that of course are stuck with your insurance the existence of cyber warfare that either cuts down production or if you want to protect yourself it's very costly it's now finally also a backlash against Rising incoming inequality delivered into fiscal policies that are for labor for Union Pro workers might be the right thing to do about social Strife but increases waiting pressure in finally the U.S and Europe are weaponizing the dollar in the Euro for National Security and foreign policy purposes that might be the right thing to do the deter your Rivals but it creates frictions in the international payment system sounds in the wheel that is also stuck mentioning these are on the supply side on the domain side we're facing a situation where I pointed out that ratio private in public as a short GDP they've gone from 100 in the 70s to 350 last year globally 420 in advance economies 330 in China central banks are in a trap in a dead trap because they were to increase the interest rates enough to fight inflation not only that would cause a hard Landing of the economy but it would also cause a financial crash in a financial crash and the debt crisis is going to lead to a worse of Ascension and a worse recession of course it's going to make decoration even more serious so the combination of those Supply factors and the demanded side that trap implies that inflation is going to be higher over the middle long term this is a structural factors now in the short term the global economic Outlook is slightly better compared to six months ago when the IMF at the very dark view of the world the US State and the European data been better than expected China's reopening and of course India's been doing well from a point of economic growth in the last few months however I think there are still dance at recently imply we may end up with a hard Landing of the global economy especially advanced economies rather than a softer or softish Landing for a number of reasons first of all the war between Russia and Ukraine is going to get worse this year unfortunately that's gonna further spy commodity prices Israel might strike Iran because of the nuclear capability of Iran that could lead to a spike in Energy prices and in China the covet now is spreading like wildfire reducing the supply of labor or if China were to grow faster the demand for commode is going to rise pushing higher commodity prices and for Commodities there is massive today under investment into new capacity not only in energy but also in green Metals whether it's inflation and Industrial Metals and therefore firms like Goldman Sachs expected this year Commando impressive may go up globally more than 40 percent that's implying higher inflation not lower inflation secondly labor markets in advance economies are tight lower unemployment rates aging or population restriction of migration skills means matches great resignation falling labor force participation rate wage growth is five six percent in the US is not consistent with inflation going to two percent and finally inflation the service sector depends on labor costs because the service cycle is mostly labor cost and therefore if a waging phase is going to remain high core inflation is not going to fall towards two percent that is to reach the infrastical surprise on the upside in advance economies but also in Emerging Markets the central banks will have to raise the interest rates even more so and then raising interest is more than they expect and more than the market expect events is going to lead to a hard Landing of the real economy and to financial stress because of rising debt servicing ratios so while most people hope in this rough Landing of the economy I worry about the heart Landing um I I want to make a final point about India India is a country that's done a lot in terms of economic policies it created an infrastructure boom and internal Market it has developed National policies that are leading to growth of manufacturing sector it has a comparative advantage in I.T technology and technological services including fintech and let's create a welfare system that is based on a tax stock that allows micro Target all of this is positive I would have only one particular specific concern the biggest problem that India is going to face in the next few years are more micro and structural rather than macro and signature of course on the macro side inflation is still too high that this isn't that in the parking sector are high but I would say that the migrant concerns are more important why do I say so the growth of India is becoming increasingly driven by national champions that are large private oligopolistic conglomerates on one side that might be seen as positive because they are productive efficient and competitive and they've been actually creating a lot of economic growth India's been growing fast even with much lower investment ratings of than China because of the better efficiency of the investment the location of savings to investment on the other side however this oligopoly eventually will hamper competition domestic internationally risk killing new entrants and startups and they may lead eventually to lower total factor to the degree growth in fact if you look at the data potential growth in India today is not going higher it's either stagnant at around six seven percent or falling and I think that that degree of of a lithopoly in the parts of the corporate sector is part of the reason why that's happening finally I would argue that there is risk of developing an economic model based on chronic capitalism is going to lead to reduced economic growth reduce institutional robustness and a negative perception of the country by Global Investors you want to avoid that you want to go to a growth model that is dynamic is productive is globally competitive that is sustainable it is fair I think that India can do it but you need to have also the right economic policies thank you very much
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