저자: CathieWood · 한국인
요약 보기
ARK의 캐시 우드가 AI·로봇·에너지저장·블록체인 혁신이 수년 내 큰 성장을 가져올 것이라 주장. 비트코인은 공급 증가율이 금보다 낮아 희소성이 커진다고 보고, 테슬라가 비트코인보다 먼저 목표가에 도달할 것이라 예측. 5년 투자 시계로 운용하며 테슬라는 ARK 최대 보유 종목이라고 밝힘. 관세 충격 후 시장 반등과 생산성 주도 회복을 기대.
다듬은 글
uh given that the US is the leader in innovation, I'm going to say developed, but emerging markets are are very industrious and eager to catch up as well. Would you lose all your crypto passwords or your brokerage account login? Uh which would I prefer to lose if if I had to lose one? Well, uh it probably has to be the one.
It's very hard to tell because I'm half and half crypto and just to give you a sense half and half crypto and equities hardly any bonds. So um given that I think crypto is going to uh stun the world at least the way I've positioned in certainly Bitcoin the biggest uh I I' if I had to I'd prefer to lose the brokerage account.
Yeah. Is AI under or overhyped? Uh AI is um I think people thanks to the chat GPT moment understand how provocative it is. But I don't think they understand how profoundly it's going to change our lives, especially healthcare. Uh I'm going to qualify it. I understand where I am right now. uh Asia is much more um rapidly adjusting I think to the new technologies that are evolving today.
Europe is being held back by regulation. However, there is hope. Um we were impressed that Europe provided much more clarity for crypto or digital assets with the Mika legislation uh way ahead of the US. So, a question I get here a lot in Europe uh and the UK is why uh aren't we seeing more innovation coming out and and and a a deeper market for venture capital?
Um I think uh half of the solution is understanding the problem and I'm hearing even uh policy makers asking that question and I do think in the years ahead there's going to be regulatory arbitrage where companies will start companies countries will start competing with one another with a um a better regulatory framework.
I think uh the world went way too far after the various crises we've been through tech and telecom financial regulations just strangling in innovation got uh well there are three of them there are robotics energy storage and AI three major innovation platforms each one has its own scurve and now they're intersecting one is feeding the other in the form of autonomous taxi platforms uh we I think that's a an 8 to10 trillion opportunity globally in the next 5 to 10 years.
So exponential growth growth all the way. What will come first? Bitcoin reaching$ 1.5 million USD or Tesla reaching $2600? Uh we have in our big ideas 2025 uh forecasts for both of those as you say. Uh so which one do we believe will get there first? I have to say Tesla. Um hesitate hesitantly though because only because the distance between here say $330 and 2600 is less than the distance between 104,000 and 1.5 million.
stocks tend to start outperforming uh uh before the broader market uh does. Uh so and that has happened this time in this time as well. We went through tariff turmoil. Uh we went down more than the market and now we're up more than the market. And the question now is will this be sustained? um if we're right that we're moving from a rolling recession to a strong recovery with surprisingly low inflation because it's going to be productivity driven.
Um I think uh I think we're in for very good days for for innovation all kinds of equities of course but you know our stocks over the last four years have faced three major headwinds that are going to turn into tailwinds now to be uh invested in innovation. Well uh our own investment time horizon is 5 years.
Okay. uh and you know we our modeling often goes out beyond that uh but uh we have to believe that a company that the market is going to start discounting the opportunity within 5 years. Mhm. So let's discuss Tesla. Tesla is not only ARC's largest holding but it's also the second most owned US stock among our customers.
Uh so I think both you and many of our customers has conviction in this stock. Uh how do you assess Elon Musk's impact and uh in his other engagements outside of Tesla um and its performance? Yes. Um it's very interesting to me that uh this is the number two holding uh among your client base uh because we we know there's been a lot of negative sentiment about the brand.
So isn't that interesting? I've been surprised to learn that. Um so that gives me hope. As I said, you've got a very techforward milestones as the Model 3 production did in 2018 and 19 so-called production hell. You will find him sleeping on the floor in the factory. He becomes maniacally focused on whatever the bottlenecks are, whatever the gating factors are.
And uh those bottlenecks happen at different times in different companies. So that is why all of his companies have performed extraordinarily well. Now you might say it's been a tough patch, you know, from a volatility point of view for for uh Tesla, but that's been true Tesla's entire history. Uh we still have auto analysts primarily on the sell side of the street following it.
Um and it should be a completely different kind of analyst. It should be a robotics analyst and a battery analyst and an AI analyst. We have three analysts on Tesla. So I think the volatility is because it is not well understood. Uh and that's why we give our research away. We put our models out there just to help educate.
Bitcoin having been uh minted since uh the beginning of its existence in 2009. uh the um number that it will be in existence ever is 21 million. So only 1 million more to go which is about $100 billion. Um so scarcity value is becoming more important especially since uh for the first time uh bit bitcoin supply growth dropped below the long-term supply growth of gold which is 1%.
uh with the latest havinging uh last year uh the the the supply growth now is uh roughly 0.9%. And that will continue to go down with time uh which is unlike gold. If the gold price keeps going up that supply growth uh will will um uh pick up in its pace. Uh that cannot happen with Bitcoin. Um the second reason Hood is developing a crypto strategy as well.
So Sofi is developing a crypto strategy. E Toro here in Europe has a c just went public uh and we added it to our portfolios. It has a a crypto strategy. Uh so um many are forced to go in directly just because their platforms. I'm thinking about advisors now. I realize you're DTC. um so your your clients can can buy it outright.
Um the last thing that I'd like to add is there is a way to um kind of straddle the two. Um and that of course is ETFs. So spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. The SEC approved them last year. ARKB was one of them. That's ours. Uh and so that is sort of a a way to leg into bit pure play bitcoin exposure or scaling now and uh then the last one is product and service leadership.
The these are these are the top four which we actually score when I say last one uh product and service leadership is market share. There are a lot of statistics like that. But because we give away our research on social media, we see a lot of social sentiment both good and bad uh both polite and not so polite uh around the our research um and support for certain companies uh and their technologies.
The other two metrics critically important um involve cash flow. Um so e uh enterprise value to EBITDA is our chosen metric. EBITDA adjusted for stockbased compensation and R&D. We've worked with S&P to adjust both the S&P 500 and our flagship um and uh what we assume a way that most others do not uh my guess is uh in Europe generally and and maybe even in Sweden.
Yeah, we love love equities. I read some number that US households uh have invested 36% of their equity in the stock market and here in Sweden we're at 36%. So we're just behind. I'm hoping that we will come by. And I should have mentioned I didn't finish the answer on Sweden and technology. It has been a beautiful thing to see Spotify and CLA, you know, and and to hear CLA and I realize every every one of these companies is going to experience volatility, but they're on the right side of change.
Um to see Clara basically say, "Hey, we can pull these software as a service um uh um services that we're taking and do it ourselves." Because guess what? They were ahead of the game on what we're now know what we now know as vibe coding. We're all going to become coders. So, uh, Clara, when they made that dramatic action, which I think was almost a year ago now, like, subscribe, and turn on notifications.
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