저자: 미상 · 외국인
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포트폴리오 수익이 줄어든 시기에 피터 린치의 매도 기준을 소개하는 교육 영상. 성장 둔화 기업, 경기순환주(인플레 상승·원재료 가격 하락 시), 가격 경쟁, 과도하게 오른 고성장주(PER 과열·추천 과다), 턴어라운드 기업의 재고 증가·부채 급증, 자산주의 세율 인하·기관 지분 과다, 무관한 M&A, R&D 둔화, 배당성향 과다 등 매도 신호를 설명한다. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, welcome to YouTube. You must be seeing in the market scenario that the profits in many portfolios have reduced significantly. Portfolios have fallen below 20-30 levels. So, in such times, we should know when we should book profits and when we should stay in the stock. So let's see one to sell by Peter Lynch.
Peter Lynch was an American investor. He was also a fund manager and a good writer. Many of his famous books on the stock market are available in the market. So, he had given some points on the basis of which we can decide when to exit from any stock. So let's see our first point was sell and stall company.
A stall- wait company is one which was formally a fast- growing company but now it has matured and its growth has slowed down. Such a company is called a stall-wait company. That first point was to sell the stock when it goes beyond the normal range but again at and buy again. At a cheaper price, when should a company sell any stock when its PI has increased significantly from the normal range, so after selling it, when the stock corrects again, then it should be bought.
Secondly, he had told the point that someone is introducing a new product in that stock and it is not able to perform, so there are many existing companies which are very old and established in the market, they keep bringing new products and their products also keep doing well, but if any company is very old and is bringing new products but the new products are not suitable according to the new era and are not doing well, then we should understand that this stock is not able to perform right now, so we should take exit from it.
If its best example is understood, like you know Kodak industry which used to make camera rolls earlier and there was a new mobile company Nokia2 company, but its peers are other companies also working in the same industry, their PCs, its PI has increased significantly, even then we get indications that in such a stock The second point was to sell a cyclical company.
A cyclical company is a company that is affected by the economic cycle. If we assume that some economic policy of the government is changing and inflation is rising, then such a company whose business is affected is called a cyclical company. If the inflation starts to pick up, if inflation is rising and you have a cyclical company, then we should exit from such a company after the inflation rises because due to rising inflation, their demand may decrease, there may be pressure on their margins and the company may underperform.
So, we should exit from such a company if inflation rises, then when the core commodity used in the product starts declining in price, if we have any shares of that cyclical company and if the price of its core product starts falling, starts declining, then we get an indication that there may be some decrease in the demand for that company's product.
Due to which the price of its raw material is also decreasing, so we get an indication that we should exit from this type of company. The third point is sell the company. Engage in price war. If such a company is facing the effect of economic cycle, inflation is increasing, along with that, to gain its market share or to increase its sales, if it engages in price war and starts taking a hike on its margin, then also we should exit from such company.
Third is sell a fastest growing company. If you have shares of a fastest growing company, then when should you exit from it? Sell the PE ratio, which is P, goes much ahead of its projected earnings, which is earnings and PE ratio is not matching anywhere, the stock has become very expensive, then you should exit from such a company and when the company comes down again, then we can buy it.
When the Stock has high recommendation, it's time to start selling. If there is a fastest growing company, it is getting a lot of recommendations, it is becoming a buzzing stock in the market, its price is being increased a lot unnecessarily, then we should get an indication that we should exit from it.
The best example of this is all the railway stocks, defense stocks, like you know how much there was in them two months ago, every railway stock and telecom stock was there, but now you can see in the stocks that the stock is coming at 40, 50, the same is in defense stocks, two months ago there was a lot of hype in them, today you see their prices have fallen from all time high to 40, 50, there has been a correction in those stocks.
The third point was to look at the gross margin, if they shrink, it lies signals competition to sell. So, if in any product company, such a company which is the fastest growing company, but now it has started taking heat on margins, its margins are decreasing, then this is an indication. It means that the competition is increasing a lot and now is the right time, we should exit from such stocks.
Fourth is selling a turnaround company. If you have a turnaround company, then when should you exit from it? When the investors grow twice as fast as sales. If investors are increasing, the investors are increasing a lot in it, the inventory, sorry, inventories are increasing a lot and its sales are not increasing that much, then this company indicates that the sales of the company are going down and the inventories of its distributors and the rest which are in their pipeline are also increasing a lot, like you can see the recent example, you can see that the sales of the automobile industries are going down and their inventories are increasing a lot in their factories, godowns and their distributors and you can see that due to this, it has to sell its stocks at a huge discount and due to this the company has to take a lot of hit on its margin and profit.
Our second point is if the consistently decreasing debt suddenly rises, if a turnaround company was continuously decreasing its debt, but suddenly its debt increases, then this also indicates that the time has come for all the turnaround companies to take exit. When the turnaround is known by everybody, this starts happening in it.
So fifth is sale and asset play company. What is an asset play company, its asset value is much higher than the market value. When do we have to exit from such a company when it is still undervalued and you are raising extra capital in it. If the valuation of your company is low and the assets are high, then you should not need to take loan.
Still, if you are raising extra capital, it somewhere indicates that there is some problem in the management. If there is a reduction in the corporate tax rate which Considerably reduce the value of the company by tax loss carry forward. If the corporate tax has reduced, if you know that the company shows depreciation, that is, how much depreciation is happening in our assets and shows it in its profit and loss.
If its tax rate is reduced, then the carry forward tax which is done is not able to be done, due to which the profit may get hit. So this indicates that such asset play company should be exited from it. If the institutional ownership has risen above 60%, then from such a company, the asset play company should be exited.
Sell a slow grow company. If you have a slow grow company, then when should you exit from it? If recently acquired an unrealistic business, if it is a slow grow company, then if it acquires any other business which is not related to its business, then this There is an indication that the stock may perform well and may even make profits, but the chances are low.
It may take a year or two for this to happen. By then, its profitability may hit. If the business doesn't work, it may suffer a significant loss. So, if you think that a company is manufacturing paints and suddenly it enters the cement business, then both these businesses do not match. If such an acquisition happens, then we should understand that we have to exit such a business even if it loses market share in the corresponding years.
If the market share is lost, what is market share? Let's assume there is a paint industry. Let's assume that Asian Paints has a market share of 60 rupees for goods worth ₹00. Asian Paints sells goods worth ₹00, then at 60, the market share of Asian Paints has become that of Asian Paints. Now you can see that it has come down to 55, it has come down to 50, and which is less than the corresponding year.
It is increasing, which means that competition is increasing and due to this its market share is decreasing. So, if the market share of your company is also decreasing, then you should exit from such a company when there is no new product development and R&D is slow. No new product is being developed and R&D is also very low, so it is possible that in the coming future, the business of this company may also close down or it may become out of the scope.
So, in such a company, if the company is not able to do R&D and is not able to develop new products, then we should get an indication that we should exit from such a company. Fourth, our point is when the company stops raising dividends and the payout ratio exceeds 60. But if such a company is a slow grower, if it used to pay dividends earlier, but has stopped paying dividends now, or has suddenly started paying a very high dividend, then this also shows that there is a problem in the company and there is an issue in profit.
Or it may be that if the company starts giving a very high payout, then this also indicates that the company is not spending on its R&D, is not spending on new development, is spending money on distributing dividends, so this is also an indication that we should exit from this stock, so friend, if you want valuable information like this, then like this video and subscribe to our channel, thank you.
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