저자: FrankCurzio · 외국인
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결론: 시장 공포 속 섣부른 매도·관망을 권하며, 시장 폐쇄 필요성까지 주장하는 비관적 영상. [배경] 2020년 3월 19일 코로나 확산으로 증시가 급락하던 시점. 빌 애크먼이 CNBC 등에서 감정적으로 패닉에 가까운 발언(미국이 존재하지 않게 될 수 있다, 30일 봉쇄 요구 등)을 하며 시장 공포를 키웠다고 지적. [애크먼 관련] 애크먼은 이후 블랙스톤에 사과 전화를 했고, 저가 매수 의사를 밝혔다고 언급. 진행자는 그의 발언이 전문가도 감정에 휘둘린다는 사례라고 평가. [투자 전망] 진행자는 최고의 투자자들도 현재 틀리고 있다며 당분간 관망(sidelines 유지)을 권함. 과거 데이터로는 이번 사태를 설명할 수 없고, 많은 기업이 부채 약정(covenant)을 위반할 것이라고 경고. [리스크] 경제활동 중단이 길어질 경우 부실 연쇄(항공, 여행사, 모기지 은행 등)가 예상되며, 매일 대통령 브리핑이 시장을 흔든다고 지적. 현금 인출 등 공포 심리도 언급. [포트폴리오] 진행자는 본인이 소폭 포지션으로 방어를 시도했으나 각 종목에서 20% 내외 손실을 봤다고 언급. 유가 관련 옥시덴탈(OXY)을 약 한 달 전 매수해 비중을 2%에서 10%로 늘렸다고 함(당시 수익). 모든 자산이 하락 중이라 면역 종목은 없으며, 금도 지금은 매수하기 어렵다고 함. 일부 추천 종목은 신고가를 기록했다고 언급. [결론] 역곱버스(인버스 ETF) 가능성을 언급하되 신중하라고 함. 시청자에게 TV를 끄고 공포 방송을 멀리하라고 권고.
다듬은 글
hey guys Frank Curzio no live video feel free to email me Frank Curzio research comm also follow YouTube page and crazier research YouTube which is absolutely for free guys so I'm posting a lot of videos there especially these live videos and other videos I'm doing media appearances things like that but big story late the day was Bill Ackman who won fast money around 1 o'clock right the president was speaking early and just an emotional mess right how crazy it was this is something that manages billions of dollars I'm a big fan of him I think he's a brilliant guy but it went from around 1 o'clock where he was talking north is really coming down you're saying he'd quarantine himself for 30 days the US gonna cease to exist unless we do something he was calling for basically you know president shut down everything for 30 days that should kind of sound familiar to you something was saying last week I said that private equity firms gonna go bankrupt she said that travel company's gonna go back to Airlines she's gonna go back tell him that I when he pulled cash from ATMs cash from ATMs really so again there's no 1 p.m.
and then at 4 p.m. if you follow him he doesn't tweet a lot he's been tweeting a little bit past few days I says listen my comments this is what I really meant I meant that America is gonna be ok he actually called Blackstone to apologize to them and he's saying that he's a buyer in this market he's buying Blackstone you think it's it's only the piece behind the stock or whatever he said and then you know we have bargains of a lifetime now I'm not picking on the guy here but the lesson here that you need to understand is this is a guy that's a professional who's one of the best investors who's crazy right now right a very very emotional complete panic mode listening to that guy today probably made you automatically sell out of everything that you own it was crazy he was just he kept going and going and going it let him go on it's like a half an hour completely emotional mess now you're a mom-and-pop investor right that's why I'm doing these videos for I'm gives you about that the billionaires and things like that they're gonna be fine after this but when it comes to you if you could see some of the great investors you look at Buffett that poor boy Delta at 4550 percent lower now I mean this is like two weeks ago I bought oxy I said on petroleum and whose position probably about a month ago and then it increased from 2% to 10% that's like right 60 percent over that time frame I'm not picking on these guys my point is these are the greatest investors in the world and they're getting it wrong right now so you have to stay on the sidelines continue to stay on the sidelines just too much uncertainty we'll look at a market where they have to close a stock market because if they don't the president is gonna be faced with something every single day it's gonna be the airline it's gonna be travel agencies it's gonna I mean you have to see Sutton the mortgage bank said starting to collapse a one by one he's gonna have to come out with the different students every single day you will avoid all of that if you close the markets and makes a lot easier you're not gonna have guys like Bill Ackman and billionaires going crazy and emotional scared hell out of everybody but just to show you listen the best investors make a mistake why because a lot of us don't looking a lot easier also looking at past data to come up with how they're gonna use it this kind of cash flow models to predict the future and this has never happened before you can't compare this to anything historically we've never been shut down like this the world is shut down it's never been anything like this but there's a lot of companies that are gonna breach debt covenants it's gonna get really crazy and the presents are gonna be on two times a day and what's gonna happen marks gonna continue before because there's no economic activity which is fine but have you gonna tell us to stay home and you're gonna shut down the economy for a month month and a half two months you have to shut down the stock market it just doesn't make sense there's just too much bad news gonna come out and then you can have more billionaire guys or hedge funds like Ackman going on TV and scared a lot everybody which is pretty crazy today I mean it was pretty crazy I'm a big fan I think it's brilliant again am i picking on them I said I'm right they're wrong whatever but it just goes to show you when you see a guy like that I don't want that guy managing my money after today but that emotional that crazy that panicky now we know what kind of marketing we're in something that we haven't seen before so just be careful stay on the sidelines so I'm trying to be a hero I try to pick it away a little here a little there and I'm losing 20% here 20% there again it's very small positions you know everything's going down there's no pockets there's no stocks that are immune there's nothing that's immune daddy you can't buy gold here I'm either by Walmart we have portfolio one of our recommendations that they get a new all-time high something say you know you could inverse ETS but guys just be careful out there seriously and try to shut the TV off because if we continue to see guys like that Acme just going crazy and he's gonna scare the crap out of everybody everybody's definitely in a Cell I report back to you guys soon again be sure to check out my cozy Research YouTube page which is absolutely for free we're just starting to get a lot of traction all my videos and everything go on there I don't look back to you guys suit take care
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