저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 연준 9월 회의에서 금리 인하가 있더라도 시장 과열 속 추격매수보다 기다리는 게 낫다는 관망 입장. 연준(Fed) 전망 - 9월 회의가 시장의 큰 변수이며 결과가 나쁘면 강세장이 크게 흔들릴 수 있다고 봄. - 경기 둔화의 주원인은 무역전쟁이므로 연준이 굳이 개입할 필요가 없다는 시각도 있으나, 인플레이션이 낮고 장기금리가 낮아 인하 압력이 크다고 판단. - 0.25%p 인하 가능성이 높다고 보며, 추가 인하 가능성도 언급. - 파월 의장이 작년 금리를 너무 높고 빠르게 올린 점을 지적하고, 기자회견을 매 회의마다 여는 것은 부적절하다고 비판. 무역 및 정치 - USMCA(미국-멕시코-캐나다 무역협정) 통과 여부가 기업들에게 중요하며, 민주당 낸시 펠로시 하원의장과의 대화에서 협정이 통과될 가능성이 있다고 판단. - 워싱턴이 정치적으로 대립하지만 여야 간 차이가 예상보다 작다는 견해. 시장 및 종목 - 증시는 단기적으로 과매수 상태이며, 9월 회의 전 추격매수는 위험하다고 봄. 'Stand pat(현상 유지)' 권고. - 셸(Royal Dutch Shell) 등 화석연료주는 성장성이 낮아 추천하지 않음. 배당보다 성장주 선호, 어도비는 할인 시 매수 권고. - 로쿠(Roku)는 130% 수익 시 원금 회수 후 나머지는 보유 권고. 출연자 전망 - 지수 단기 방향은 연준 결과에 달려 있으며 장기적으로는 금리 인하와 무역협정 타결이 주가에 긍정적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
America I'll do one make friends I'm just trying to pay you some money my job is not just entertained but to put it hat if the center holds what if the Republic is in better shape than we think and our leaders in Washington can actually find a way to compromise and maybe actually get something done I gotta tell you that's how I felt lawyer today when I interviewed Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House and leader of the Democratic Party about how she looks at things you'll see that interview later in the show but for now you should know that she's hoping for constructive dialog between Democrats Republicans including a president which is something I pretty much written off as impossible now before I go into what I heard remember that despite today's sedate action dal inching up 34 points doesn't be advancing point to such was that nice neck actually gaining point four o percent we are on the cusp of an incredibly important Fed meeting tomorrow if it goes badly it could slaughter this seemingly irrepressible Bulls the kind of people who keep buying either an oil spike or some disappointing tech news like we got today I'm very concerned about the Fed meeting because if I would say pal I might want to stick it to the president by saying there's no need to cut interest rates at all we've got plenty of job growth the only possible slowdown out there is being caused by the trade war which is very much by design so why should the Fed lift a finger ameliorate the pain also President Trump is out there calling pal a bonehead day after day and even an enemy of the United States why would pal do the president any favors at all I think you go either way there's enough evidence suggested by easy we're doing nothing if I were pal though I would cut and then discuss the comments Federal Express made after issuing an extremely disappointing quarterly report this very evening as chairman CEO Fred Smith an economist by trade acknowledged quote performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty look the market suspecting a quarter point cut to largely because the economy is slowing inflation is minimal and Powell took rates too high too fast last year the bond market with low long-term rates is practically screaming for cuts I just don't know if pal hears those screams give it the stock market remains overbought there's a case to be made that we couldn't get hammered by anything less than a rate cut with a statement that more cuts could be in the offing if business slows further we gotta have that too regardless of course for the reason for the slow down including the trade war Pao could hang it all on Trump that everything would be just fine without the president's Terrace pay no attention to the overly aggressive 2018 rate hikes behind the curtain look I have no illusions pal human stopped trading it's gotta be tempting to refuse to cut rates purely out of spite but at the end of the day Powell takes his job seriously and I don't think he'd do that no matter how miserably the president treats him that doesn't mean he'll give us what we want though he'll he might decide on a more measured pace for his rate cuts simply because he thinks it's a good idea which brings me to Speaker Nancy Pelosi I know the trade war with China is front and center for many of you and for good reason given the jarring nature of the tariffs and the struggle to make the Chinese government change their unfair practices but to me the more salient trade initiative is the prospect of this new trade pact among the u.s.
Mexico and Canada the u.s. MCA outline that so many executives are worried about because they think it might not be able to pass Congress imagine that prevailing wisdom here is that things have gotten so rancors and ugly in Washington that the chances of this thing passing seem to be diminishing by the day I think a failure would be disastrous for many of the international businesses based here however that's not the impression I got after talking to the Speaker of the House even the Pelosi ISM buddies with Trump by any stretch the imagination she knows that American workers and especially American farmers by the way want this deal and she believes it should get done if she can get something concrete delivered I think she'll Shepherd it through the house provided as enforcement provisions fortunately I don't think that's actually that much of a sticking point between her and the president last Thursday the Washington Post ran a terrific editorial arguing that Congress shouldn't play politics with the USMC a deal even that means the Democrats end up giving Trump a win going into an election year if you speak to Pelosi I get the sense that a deal will be made regardless of the presidential political fallout we talked about a host of other issues but I think it's important to consider the two sides the Democrats and Republicans aren't as far apart as you might expect on a very crucial issue all that said I sure wish the market hadn't going up today even if only went up a little the probability of Powell make him misstep even if he gives us a rate cut it's just too great unfortunately he's chosen have these press conferences every after every Fed meeting a decision that I think it's turn out to be very ill-advised given the tension between the White House and the gentlemanly Fed chief but once we get through the big bad event of the Fed meeting we'll have a resident that Washington might be able to fill with meaningful legislation and practicality by the way I think you need to stand pat pat even the polls don't get exactly what they want from the Fed tomorrow it's just not worth trying to game this market when you know that eventually we're likely to get lower interest rates and maybe even an updated trade deal that replaces the now not so hot for America NAFTA to things that would be very good for stock prices let's go to be reinjure juh Barry hi Jim my son has a question for you sure I am this is therefore Savannah Georgia I am turning friends now and I would love to buy my first stock cover what do you think about the Shelf Rd I love all right first of all the kids got horse sense because it's got a good yield but you know what a younger person should not be interested in yield I want you to go for growth beer I think that royal dutch/shell also by the way these fossil fuel stocks they don't trade so hot so let's buy some growth let's pick up some Adobe at a discount that's my gift to you hey young kids please keep going especially children hold the kids name is bear I want the next kid to be bull or Dan in Ohio Dan hey Jim how you doing Dan I'm doing well how about you I'm pretty good hey my question is about Roku I'm up about a hundred thirty percent is it time to take my money or do you think it's still got some room to run hey listen chief you up 103 percent you got to take a little schnitzel here I want you to take out your cost basis what you can do because you're up that much and then you can just forget about and let Roku run and congratulations oh how much have you made in a rustle index foot how much you been an S&P doe we ought to be brainwashed we're not allowed to pick stocks because we don't know what we're doing lot stand pat people it's just not worth trying to gain this market or a day-to-day basis eventually we're gonna get our resident hey old man money time the doubt breaks out which two stocks could lead the way I'll reveal the names tonight it's off the charts and I think the Bulls will like it then I sat down with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi did talk everything from China to North American trade deal do not miss my exclusive and I'm talking the CEO of Adobe pressure off its report what does the market rotation out of cloud software stocks mean for the company going forward and is the stock a buy or a sell I say
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