저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 클라우드플레어(NET)는 성장률은 좋지만 재무 일관성과 밸류에이션이 부담스러워 현 시점 신규 매수는 피하라는 취지. [투자 판단] 신규 상장주라 위험하며, 클라우드 업종 분위기가 식은 현 상황에서는 매수 권유를 하지 않는다. 이미 이익을 낸 투자자는 익절을 긍정적으로 평가. [사업 모델] 클라우드플레어는 웹사이트 운영을 돕는 클라우드 기반 인프라 플랫폼으로, 보안·성능 향상·복합 서비스를 하나로 묶어 제공. VPN, 방화벽, DDoS 방어, CDN, DNS 등 여러 사이버보안·콘텐츠 전송 시장을 겨냥. 시장 규모는 2022년 470억 달러 전망. [재무 분석] 2018년 매출 성장률 43%, 2019년 상반기 48%로 가속. 마진은 2017년 개선 후 작년 악화, 올해 상반기 소폭 회복. 잉여현금흐름은 작년 -7,800만 달러 등 악화 추세, 2019년 상반기도 전년 대비 감소. 유료 고객 38%·33% 증가, 10만 달러 이상 고객은 상반기 70% 증가. [룰 오브 40] 성장률 48%에서 영업이익률 -27%를 합치면 21%로 40 기준 미달. 상장 클라우드 기업 중 최하위. [밸류에이션] 작년 매출의 28배, 내년 매출 기준 약 15배로 비쌈. Salesforce, Adobe, VMware, Workday, Twilio, Splunk, ServiceNow 등 동종 기업이 더 저렴하다고 언급. [조건/리스크] 실적 일관성 부족, 악성 사이트 고객 논란(엘패소 총격 관련 고객 해지), 클라우드 업종 투자 심리 약화. [기타 Q&A] 시청자 질문에 대해 Chewy(IPO 후 하락 종목)는 좋은 콘셉트이나 단기 매매는 지양. Health Catalyst는 좋은 회사로 추가 매수는 불필요, 32~37달러 수준 언급.
다듬은 글
now that the dust is settling the turmoil on the cloud space with many stocks bouncing today okay so go back to the group earlier show I gave you my triage analysis of all the cloud news recover which one ones you can double down along once it seemed a little risky to me and now I want to come back to another software company as a service than the one that you've asked me over and over again since it came public last Friday I got this whole weekend CloudFlare all right CloudFlare is a cloud-based web infrastructure play and it managed to rack up a decent IPO price at 15 then surging at 18 at the open and staying there before climbing another 3.5% today a strong stock so could this fresh-faced cloud stock be worth owning I think we need to be very careful here about approaching new names frankly if cloud line if cloud flare had come public say just six months ago when the cloud stocks were red-hot and there seemed to be no price investors wouldn't pay for these things then maybe I would have felt a little more comfortable about recommending but lately this markets gotten a lot less hospitable to cloud court today so we've got accepted in the current environment I think you need to steer clear of something like cloud flare and I know a lot of you like it don't get me wrong the company has an intriguing concept cloud fares platform basically helps businesses run their websites making them more secure enhancing their performance and eliminating the cost of complexity of managing lots of individual pieces of hardware in the old days you get all these services from separate one premises software Prem providers CloudFlare bundles them all together into one easy to use platform that seamlessly allows you to adopt additional solutions and that is so important as the company sees it they're disrupting multiple large enterprise software markets with their bundle approach they're going after Virtual Private Networks VPNs internal and external firewalls web security distributed denial-of-service prevention intrusion detection application delivery controls content delivery networks domain name systems advanced represent and wide area networking think of CloudFlare is a one-stop shop that's going in for parts of the cyber security and content delivery software industries put it all together management argues detect got a three here thirty one point six billion dollar total bull market or tan that's growing to 47 billion by 2022 and that's without counting the new areas CloudFlare is trying to expand into like storage 5g the Internet of Things I mean what could I say it does feel like it's got everything going for it now they don't sell user data they don't try to compete with their customers they just give them a simple easy-to-use platform that can work with any major public cloud vendor cloud flairs neutral why Switzerland in fact some would say they're a little too neutral last month this is the company is preparing for its IPO they caught a lot of flack for providing infrastructure and security services for some of the ugliest destinations on the web including the site where a number of recent mass shooters were radicalized CloudFlare dropped them as a client right after the El Paso shooting but this wasn't the first time they've gotten in trouble for doing business with the most hated parts of in hateful parts of the web so when I say their new choice whistling I mean that both the positive negative senses that concept works for me but what about the financials okay CloudFlare posted 43% sales growth last year that's a deceleration from 2017 although in the first step of this year that number we accelerated 48% that's a bit how about the margins there's some noise here we'd like to see a smooth trend but instead cloud fair had a huge across-the-board improvement 2017 better gross margin better operating margin better free cash flow margin followed by some major deterioration last year and the first half of 2019 the margins have improved modestly so they seem to be back on the right track for the moment the other thing it's tough to get a read on here cloud fairs free cash flow which appears to be going in the wrong direction after falling from negative 20 million to negative 78 million last year it worsen again down 13 eat then 39 million the first half of this year that's the decline versus the first half of 2018 that's bad that said there are some real positives cloud flares paying customers grew by 38% last year and 33 percent so far this year solid better still the number of customers paying them more than $100,000 a year hasn't going much faster up 70 percent in the first half makes sense part of cloud flares pitches that they can easily scale their business so if customers want to spend more it's extremely easy for the company to give them exactly what they need but there's the problem when you compare cloud flare to the rest of the group it does indeed come up short remember that rule of 40 that I talked about I mentioned it earlier in the show the idea here is that if you're exceed 40 percent anything below that threshold is suspect the rule 40 gives you two ways to win you can lose a lot of money as long as you have rapid revenue growth or you can have slow revenue growth as long as you're meaning you'll make a lot of money but you can't pass a middling growth it not-so-hot margins I've already told you about the companies that pass this test but CloudFlare it ain't one of them the company's growing in a 48% clip but it's operating margin is negative 27 percent add those two together and you get 21% we look at all the cloud stocks that have come publicly to your class CloudFlare actually has the worst rule of 40 score and short cloud fair may have a solid concept but in terms of its financials it lags behind the rest of the cohort now that would be fine if the stock had a sensible valuation but jeez I mean clap-clap ourselves with 28 times last year's sales even if we assume it will keep growing it roughly the same pace that means it's trading at 15 times next year's back to the envelope sales forecast that makes a pretty darn expensive stock all of our pal Kings are cheaper Salesforce Adobe VMware workday Twilio Splunk and ServiceNow so I can't recommend they're up here bottom line if you got one it got in on this CloudFlare IPO and made a nice profit take it good for you I hope these guys can deliver spectacular numbers going forward that justify the stock stratospheric valuation yes parallel a parabola but based on cloud there's inconsistent results over the past 18 months stocks just too risky for me especially in a market that no longer worships at the altar of the cloud let's go to Jackie in New York Jackie hey Jim thank you for your recommendation of horizon and solo they both may be over 10% oh that's nice thank you well wasn't the question tonight is so chewy so I got in on IPO day at $38 des stock that's been trading down ever since yeah with earnings coming out post market tomorrow do you think I should cut my loss or a way for earnings to rescue the stock well I mean look we we think the Chui is a great concept okay and so therefore you don't want to trade in and out and flit and when it comes to Chui do I know if this Court is gonna be good or bad I have no idea but I do like the concept very much let's go to jury in Illinois jury a jerk as a former Marine we say hula so who has to you and your team for a fine show and dedication for the small investor well thank you thank you for serving thank you very much Jim in early August you recommended health catalyst bring recently launched an NPO Christmas IPO so you're very high on their strategic plan to provide a complex analytics to the healthcare industry which sounded very promising to me as well so after doing some of my own research and after the stock dropped 90 percent from its high of 49 $49 I took a minimal position of 45 10 okay said earlier in August the stock dropped thirty to thirty three dollars and twenty seven about a 27 percent decline since then it's moved back up about thirty seven dollars today but it's still a soft 18 percent for my entry right so Jim what your recommendation look I think this is a really good company I think these stocks really got hammered all of them it's just like a giant group move but that said I think I'm reiterating and I think health catalyst is a terrific company I think you'll do just fine no need to buy anymore unless it breaks that low that a tenth of $32 a 37 now if you made some money on on cloud fare I say good for you but these guys are just too inconsistent for my liking there's much format money had looking for an easy way to access the 9 trillion dollar gold market I'm talking to it under the radar company that's hoping to help then there are two deals staring us in the face and they are worrisome to the entire market I'll point them out to tell you how to approach them and all your call T
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