저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
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vibecession은 약 4년 전 소셜미디어에서 경제 회복을 말했다가 강한 반발을 받은 경험에서 출발한 용어로 소개된다. 이후 심리지표와 실제 경제 데이터가 엇갈리는 현상이 주목받았다. 출연자들은 그 간극의 원인으로 주거·의료·돌봄·육아비 등 감당 가능성(affordability) 문제를 꼽는다. 주식 상승이 집세와 생활비에 허덕이는 청년들에게 상대적 박탈감을 준다는 점도 언급된다. 세대 간 격차도 논의되는데, 과거 청년들은 낮은 금리와 물가 속에서 집을 살 기회가 있었지만 지금은 고령 부유층이 두드러져 보인다고 설명된다. 한편 소비 지표는 여전히 활발해 심리와 실제 행동이 다르다는 점이 흥미롭게 다뤄진다.
다듬은 글
Since you had a coin vibe session, could you explain how you came up with that phrase and what your current thoughts are on it? Is that the word you're referring to? Yes, actually, that phrase has been around for four years. In other words, it was quite a while ago . In 2022, I was making videos for social media, talking about how the post-pandemic economy was recovering and things were going really well .
Then, in the comments section, there were many people saying, "No, that's not actually true at all. You're crazy ." So I thought, "That's very strange." Then, sentiment data and economic data began to diverge. In other words, there are so many reasons why something is happening and why economic data and sentiment are diverging—perhaps we could talk about it for a very long time.
Some point to structural problems with affordability . In other words, housing costs are too high, medical expenses are too high, elderly care costs and childcare costs are too high, and so on. However, despite the economic data looking relatively good , there's something going on that's preventing people from feeling good about the economy .
And I'm not saying that people *should* feel better . I'm not saying anything about anything in particular. However, something is happening, there is a discrepancy, and it is extremely important to understand why this discrepancy exists. I agree. So, part of that divergence is the market , and people see the market soaring every day , and I think they see people struggling to pay their rent or go to the grocery store, not you .
It's not fun to watch the market skyrocket when you're struggling to pay your rent. I don't understand . Do you understand what that means? Kyle and I have talked about this before, but when my generation was the same age as her, it meant you sounded really old . In the late 2000s and early 2010s , we too complained about the economy , but unemployment was high, interest rates and inflation were very low, and housing was affordable if you had a job that allowed you to put down a down payment .
And I think what was completely different about us back then was that when we were 30, everyone who was 45 was bankrupt. Their homes had been foreclosed, and stock prices were low, so at least they didn't have the feeling that there were any rich people there . And now, I think it's difficult because we see so many wealthy elderly people while the younger generation is struggling .
I agree. In other words, we can all blame the baby boomer generation. In other words, all the responsibility lies with them. This is definitely the economy of the baby boomer generation, isn't it ? Looking at the data, at least on a very rough level, we can see that people are still consuming like crazy.
That's right. Not only are the number of reservations on OpenTable increasing, but that increase is accelerating. And this is just my personal opinion, but when I went to the airport yesterday, it was completely full. The restaurant was also full last night . People may be feeling down , but they are still consuming .
And it's possible that the younger generation simply accounts for a smaller proportion of the overall consumer spending power . However, it's interesting that even though we hear that consumer sentiment figures are very bad , the actual numbers are very good. That's right . In other words, at some point I said this: "If you can't afford a house, why not eat avocado toast and go to Las Vegas?" So, it's like a broken hedonistic treadmill, where you can never get those things , so you eat, drink, and have fun, right?
And you're going to bet $100 on the Cleveland Browns to win, right? of course. Through Kowski, or whatever , right? Therefore , I think that nowadays, there is an increase in a kind of side-hustle type of spending, that is, spending that seeks immediate satisfaction, while spending that seeks long-term satisfaction is decreasing.
And speaking of today's younger generation, if they had come of age during or immediately after the 2008 crisis, for example, they were used to life functioning in a certain way, right ? People who grew up at the end of history might not remember what it was like to grow up with hope , right ? And then I hear people saying that 2016 was their last good year .
If we're talking about people who were in their early teens at the time, then that makes sense, right ? Children probably would n't feel that way. That's why I think there are such things as atmosphere sessions , and I think that many of them are more about what you believe is possible than about how your daily life looks .
And psychologically, if you feel hopeful and believe things will get better, you have a much greater ability to overcome the current situation than if you believe it's the best it can be . And at best, your Boomer grandparents might pass away and leave you one-eighth of a Boca Raton timeshare. That's absolutely true.
Also, your point made me think about different parenting styles. As a member of Generation X, you were basically just pushed out the front door and told to come back in 12 hours . Um , Gen Z, and Kayla, I might be wrong, but could you check for me, um, when I was raising my daughter, at first it was like a snowplow.
I was trying to eliminate all the problems in front of her . Then I realized I was making a huge mistake. But I think that for most people in that generation, many of their problems have been solved. That might be creating yet another problem . Kayla, do you agree with me? Well, I think that's just a guess.
I agree. In other words, I don't really understand. I think everyone is raised in slightly different ways. Some might call us the "participation prize generation ." But the same thing can be said about millennials, right? So , I don't really understand. In other words, when you look at what young people are reporting, and what they are looking for, it seems that the economic ladder feels unstable .
That's why I really don't know where my career is headed . I don't really understand how they can afford to buy a house . I have absolutely no idea what my financial future holds . Sarah is absolutely right. And as for spending, the fact that people are spending clearly means they must be feeling better .
Joann Hsu, who runs the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, is, so to speak, the queen of emotions. She is truly wonderful. She points out that spending is like one vote per dollar, while emotions are like one vote per person . In other words, when people report their emotions, it's one person expressing their feelings , while spending is primarily driven by people aged 65 and over .
Greg Yip has written a lot of really great articles for the Wall Street Journal about how older people are really driving the economy forward and what that means for our future . The Federal Reserve Board's consumer finance survey has been released. People over 75 have earned a lot of money, mainly because they have invested in the stock market for many years .
They can benefit from rising housing prices , and that's not a bad thing, right? This means the American experiment is working well. The fact that older people are earning so much money is something we should celebrate. We must ensure that the younger generation is raised alongside them . Therefore, we don't know whether parenting styles are a contributing factor , or whether the economic factors that we should be pointing out are more significant .
However, there are certainly many things that need to be discussed. Absolutely. I think there are cultural aspects to it as well . The culture I'm referring to here encompasses all of us. For example, do you remember a time when, if you wanted to eat but didn't want to cook for yourself, you had to leave the house ?
Right now, there is absolutely no friction . That may be one of the contributing factors to problems such as social anxiety seen among the younger generation . Because when I was 12, if I wanted pizza on a Friday night, I had to ask my mom for money, make a phone call, and then, well, do a bunch of other things .
Right ? You might wonder why going out to see a friend used to feel so difficult, when nowadays it only takes a few taps on an app, right ? So, that's what I think, but I do n't think it's just a problem for young people. Loneliness is particularly prevalent in America, and I think one of the main reasons for this is that it's incredibly easy to be alone.
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