저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AI 우려로 엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어 주가가 급락했으나, 실적 부진이 아닌 PER 축소가 원인이라고 진단. 소프트웨어 ETF(IGV) 상위 종목 대부분 하락. 사이버보안 CrowdStrike는 ETF에 잘못 편입돼 억눌렸다며 매수. 브로드컴은 지금은 매수 시점이 아니며 하락 후 자사주 매입을 기대. 소프트웨어 하락이 타 업종으로 번지지 않을 것이라는 기대와 불확실성을 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
Wall Street hasn't fallen out of love with software, it's punishing it. Jim Kramer says the market is treating highquality enterprise names like little lambs to be slaughtered in the age of AI. Watch until the end because I'll walk through a simple checklist to decide whether a beaten down software stock is a value opportunity or just dead money in a shrinking multiple world is golden.
At least for now, even if their earnings aren't so hot. Maybe you should have seen this coming. In the last two months, we've seen a lots of different highquality enterprise software stocks. Salesforce, Service Now, Adobe report really good numbers, only to watch their stocks wither and get blown away.
The market has collectively spoken. The pin action is awful. These companies either produce software that can be replaced by something that's made by AI or at the very least AI can cut into their user base, which matters because these cloud software companies typically charge by what's known as per seat.
Never mind that none of this has actually happened yet. Wall Street's convinced that it's going to happen because of AI. Wall Street is a prediction machine and the prediction for software holders. The house of pain. Now, we thought that some types of software were immune like in infrastructure software companies like data dog, MongoDB.
Oh, they were so popular and favorite always recommend these things Atlassian. I mean, they could do no wrong. What I didn't count on was a story about how Anthropic, an AI service dedicated for businesses, businessto business we call it, has developed programs to help automate legal work. And they're starting to make inroads at law firms.
We've seen these before, but nothing ever caught fire. My context indicate that most law firms still don't trust these programs. And I don't blame them, but this story somehow resonated with the market. Anthropic's work was the first truly convincing product that some thought would cause the big layoffs that make bringing in the product worthwhile.
Anthropic is a loved AI system. While there were many straws on the camel, that was the one that broke the camel's back. Now, most of what we've seen today does seem like panic selling with some buying of the companies that pay for software, everyone from Proctor and Gamble, which had a bad quarter, but is way up.
FedEx, Union Pacific, any company that spends a lot of techn on a lot of technology, especially software, is winning right now. But there are others who see this pattern. They decide to avail themselves of ETFs that allow them to short the heck out of software such as the EyesShares expanded tech software sector ETF or the IGV as it is known.
How would you like to be known as IG? Hi, I'm IGV. The ones with the biggest weighties in that fund with the exception of of Palanteer, which reported a terrific quarter today, were obliterated, laid to waste. The top 10 including Palanteer are all familiar names. Listen to this. Microsoft down 3%. You know that's already been hammered a lot.
Salesforce down 7%. I can't look at it anymore. Oracle down 3%. Intuitit down 11%. Hey, I like my taxes with into it. Apploving down 4%. Whatever happened to that? It's appating now. Adobe down seven. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Network's down five. Crowd Strike down almost 4%. And Service Now, I knew her when down 7%.
What do we do with this list? Are the declines overdone or are all of these enterprise software plays about to be rendered obsolete thanks to artificial intelligence? As usually it's a little more nuanced. I'm of two minds here. One is to say we ought to take advantage of their sale to pick at the other tech stocks that are being dragged down by the blunt force instrument that is this ETF.
For example, you know what we did today? We bought Crowd Strike for the travel trust. This is a cyber security company. It shouldn't it shouldn't even be in the enterprise software cohort, but it's being brought down by that stupid ETF. The idea that somehow someone is going to use AI to create a software company that identifies and stops bad guys from North Korea and Albania just ain't going to happen.
I'm calling that fanciful. I have no idea how CrowdStrike got in this stupid ETF in the first place. It doesn't belong there and the makers of the index should know better, but they're faceless people. They hide behind the index. We'll never know who they are. How do they live with themselves? Well, probably pretty easily.
They make a lot of money. But the other mind says you can't jump in front of a speeding freight train. All the aboard. Far better to just own the stocks of companies with big software spending that can presumably save fortunes. Public companies that can d begin to take out Wells Fargo. They just hired a technologist from Amazon Web Services to help the bankers find the hidden savings.
That's a winner. Oddly, for the vast plurality of the punish companies, there have been and maybe won't there have been, but I haven't seen them any big estimate cuts. What's happening is simply that their price turnables are shrinking. something I painstakingly explained in the chapter about shrinking price earnings multiples and how to make money in any market.
Wall Street's paying less and less for these earnings. The earnings aren't going away. They're just paying less for them because that's what you do when you're worried about the future. The problem with a shrinking price earnings multiple is that you don't know how low it can go. Will Salesforce trade down to 14?
How about 13? How about 12 times earnings? I have no idea. Same with Workday. Roper Technologies used to be a hardware company. Now it's a collection of hoham enterprise software businesses. How could they do that to themselves? Many of these software stocks have almost no natural defenses. Little to no dividends and not much in the way of buybacks.
They're poor little lambs who have lost their way. Sell, sell, sell. One more thought. You saw a lot of private equity stocks get hammered today. That's because many of them own enterprise software companies that want to come public. That window is now closed. We don't want any more of those. There are already too many of them.
way too many. And by the way, who understands what half of them do and uh that includes people who work there. The bottom line, bulls have to hope that the software stocks have no contagion. Theoretically, right now, they don't. They shouldn't. There are winners, the users, and losers, the providers.
Logic says the pain will not spread beyond this cohort. But then again, the markets aren't always logical. Let's take calls. How about we go to Ian in Florida? Ian. Hey. Booyah. Jim, how you doing? Booyah. Ian, I'm doing well. How about you? I'm doing great. Kanye from sunny Florida, member of the club.
Yes. Jim, I want to ask you, uh, what do you think about Broadcom here? Is it a good time to get into it? Okay. I'm too mindset of Broadcom. It's not a good time to get into it, but it's a great company. So, what are we going to do? We're going to let it come down. It did bounce today. We're going to hope that Hawk Tan does a buyback.
He's got the earnings. I'm going to throw in Let me throw in Nvidia because we're going to talk to them later. these this company is a winner in this environment, not a loser. And I will be right. Just going to take a little while. Okay, maybe till like Friday at 3:00 a.m. The bulls had better hope there's no contagion outside of these software stocks.
Logic says there shouldn't be, but you have to remember that the market isn't always logical. But look, great stocks will prevail.
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