저자: CathieWood-영상진행자YashuSharma · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드가 모닝스타 인터뷰에서 AI 붐을 '벽 오르기(climbing wall of worry)'로 보며 닷컴 버블과 다르다고 주장. 테슬라 2029년 목표가 2,600달러는 로보택시만 반영, 옵티머스(휴머노이드)는 미반영이며 이 부분에서 '너무 보수적이었을 수 있다'고 언급. 자율주행 모빌리티 시장 10조 달러 전망, 연방 규제 전환 가능성 언급. 진행자는 테슬라 장기 보유 입장을 재확인하며 캐시 우드 발언을 긍정적으로 해석.
다듬은 글
Cathy Wood just went on Morningstar and admitted something that I don't think people are going to catch. She said, and I'm quoting her here, "We may be too conservative on the human or robot opportunity." Too conservative. Cathy Wood. Those two things usually don't go in the same sentence. But, this woman who, obviously we all know, she has a $2,600 price target on Tesla as it stands right now, right?
The most bullish institutional investor for Tesla on the planet. She just looked at the camera and she basically has said she is not bullish enough on Tesla. And that's the quiet part that she is saying out loud and no one's talking about it. The interview has very few views. So, today let's break down her full her interview.
I have quotes here of what she said, my honest reactions, and I'm going to tell you exactly why that one line may be the most important thing any fund manager said about Tesla this year and why. Okay? If you like this kind of a real analysis, not just hype, hit subscribe. Let's get into it. So, the interviewer asks Cathy straight up, "Are we in a bubble like the late '90s, right?" And she gives this answer that I think is actually pretty smart.
She says, "We're climbing in this wall of worry. Investors are very hesitant to continue fueling this boom, this AI boom, because they're worried that we're in a hype cycle." But, she says, "As a portfolio manager, I would prefer to invest in that car in that kind of market anyway." Why? Because walls of worry, climbing walls of worry, those are the most durable bull markets.
Amazing, right? So, she then draws that contrast with the dot-com era. She says, "If you look back then, investors were throwing money at any company, at any dot-com company or internet company with its within its description." But, today, she argues, could not be any more different. And I actually agree with this.
People are scared. People are skeptical. And she's That's exactly why you still want to be buying today. And I got to be honest, I agree with this pretty be right? When everyone on Twitter is screaming AI bubble, bearish sentiment being so high sometimes, that's historically been the wrong time to sell, right?
The actual dot com bubble wasn't actually represented by euphoria, right? People were quitting their jobs to day trade, taxi drivers are giving stock tips. That's not what we're seeing today, right? Maybe COVID. Not now. Right now, people are worried. People are doomers, right? They're cautious. And Kathy's point is that those are the best markets to invest in.
She also makes him a really good point that I think people missed. She said in the dot com era, they laid all of this fiber for all the broadband, right? Internet. And it sat dark for years, right? Too much, too soon, basically. Not enough demand for that back then. But today, she says every GPU, if you look at the contrast to that analogy, every GPU in the world is being utilized today.
The demand is real. The infrastructure is being used. And that is fundamentally a different print setup. So, moving on, she actually This part actually gets quite interesting. She says, "We are on print on Tesla. It's in the low 400s per range right now per share. And our forecast for 2029, she doubled down, is 2600.
The forecast has nothing for Optimus, nothing for humanoid robots. So, $2600, Kathy Wood for of Ark Invest, says. And she says it has nothing to do with Optimus, right? I Like, we need to sit with that for a second, right? Ark's entire 20 $2600 per share model is based on autonomous ride hailing, right?
Robot taxis. That's it. Of course, the car business a little bit. But Optimus isn't in that model. Energy isn't in really a main driver in that model, either. It's robot taxi. So, what does that mean? I think if I think basically that means if you believe in Optimus at all, even a little bit, $2600 isn't the ceiling.
It's the floor. And that's pretty wild to say, even for the biggest institutional Tesla bull, Kathy Wood, to casually drop in an interview. And if you think about the math here, Tesla's sitting around what, 400 bucks? She's calling it for basically a 6X from here, right? In 4 years. It's aggressive, right?
Especially if Tesla's over a trillion already. But when you break down the robotized opportunity margins, the fleet that's already on the road, the data advantage, you can actually get there. And we talk about it all the time on the channel. Tesla has what, 7-8 million plus cars on the road collecting data.
That is the moat, right? Over-the-air software update for Tesla. Tip Waymo doesn't have that. Waymo's maybe running what, a couple thousand vehicles with the expensive lidar sets on the pre-mapped cities. Like Tesla can push this over-the-air update to millions of cars, and that's what we're seeing slowly build up now.
Now, is the timing going to be perfect? Has it been perfect? No, it hasn't, right? This is Elon time we're talking about, to be fair. But directionally, I think she's right. And she also throws out this other number out there that I think people gloss over, right? She says, "Autonomous mobility we think is the biggest revenue generator.
It will scale most quickly to the trend $10 trillion mark, which is quite meaningful in a world with global GDPs of about 130 trillion. And we think that'll happen in the next five or 10." 10 trillion. So, 10 trillion in a 130 trillion global economy, she's saying autonomous mobility is roughly about 7 or 8% of the global economy within a decade.
So, that's That's an insane number, and the way she frames it is pretty smart. She's not saying Tesla's going to get all of that, to be fair. She's saying that the total addressable market is there. But even if Tesla gets 20 or 30% I know Tesla bulls go up to 50, 70, 80%, but let's say if Tesla gets 20 to 30% of that $10 trillion market.
If you do the math, that $2,600 starts to look conservative. And then she drops a line that I love. She says, "This movement that has happened slowly, and now it's happening all at once. Elon Musk was talking about autonomous mobility in his master plan 12 years ago, and here we are finally launched this year.
I love the part where she she says slowly and then all at once, right? Cuz that's exactly how these things work. AI, technology, stock. You like you wait and nothing seems to happen and then boom, everywhere. And she said she basically says by the end of this year, depending on the regulatory environment, Tesla could be autonomous in 25 to 50% of all of US major cities.
Say 25 to be conservative. She does She drives I think a Tesla in in St. Pete's, Florida, and she says that she doesn't touch the wheel, nothing. I drive a Tesla full self-driving 97-98% of the time that I'm driving. And I agree, I'm not touching anything. I am touching the accelerator to go faster sometimes, but that's pretty much it.
So, the tech is here, the regulations definitely need to catch up. As she actually makes a really important point about regulations, too. She says that they have that this 50-state regulations for or regulators for transportation, and she thinks that this government is actually going to elevate it to a federal regulation instead.
And so that actually that makes quite a lot sense because autonomous vehicles cross all of these state lines often, and if that happens, the rollout goes from city to basically nationwide overnight. It has to happen, but that is something that you got to watch. There's another part about human and robots, right?
And she says and actually this is quite like the moment of the interview, right? This is the lead of the interview in my opinion. She says, "While we were too too aggressive on autonomous mobility, robotaxis, we may be too conservative on the humanoid robot opportunity. So, stay tuned for that update." Huge.
So, translating basically what she said, she's admitting a couple things at once. One, Arc was early on robotaxis, and to be fair, they have been, right? They got the timeline wrong, but you know, classic Elon Kathy time. But to be fair, everyone did. We've been calling for robotaxis years. But two, the big one is that she thinks that they're underestimating Optimus, the humanoid robot.
So, think about this. Cathie Wood, most bullish institutional investor on Tesla, $2,600 price target, highest on the street. She's sitting here saying, "Yeah, we actually might be too conservative." And then that $2,600, by the way, price target, yeah, that doesn't even have the thing that we're too conservative on.
That is the signal, right, people? Like when people when someone who's already on the extreme end of bullishness says that they need to go higher, I think that tells you something, right? Now, I know a lot of people belabor on Cathie Wood and says that her stock target prices are completely off, and that's fair, and that's a fair criticism.
But the research that they do, I want to know people who are directionally right, and she has been directionally right, although timelines have been off, which I am fine with. And by the way, it tells you everything that ARK Invest is actually seeing internally for Optimus as well. Like wherever whatever their research team is putting together, it makes them rethink their model upward.
And I actually think this is going to fly completely under the radar. Everyone is going to clip the $2,600 number like everyone does, Bitcoin stuff, and whatever they talk about. But that one line about we may be too conservative on the humanoid robot opportunity, I think that is the part that matters the most, not the stock price.
Because if Cathie Wood comes out in the next few months with the updated model that includes Optimus, and it's like a meaningful stock price target of over $2,600, that's going to be a big moment for Tesla stock. She talks about deep seek in China. She has actually quite an interesting take on the deep seek situation with China competition.
She says that the deep seek moment was like a wake-up call for all of us in terms of competition, it being very good for the US, and that's when we're at the best. Fully agree, by the way. And she says that the AI revolution is occurring faster than otherwise might be in the case of China had not been so advanced.
And so, I think she says that China experts thinks China is about 6 months behind the US in terms of frontier models. And remember, China's going open source with their models, ironically enough. So, I think competition accelerates everything. I say this often on the channel. I've said it a million times.
Without Samsung, there would be no Apple, right? Without the FBI and the CIA fighting against each other, like the US Marines and the Navy, like you need a pit you need a competition to be able to get the best out of a free market. And that's what we're seeing with the US and China, although we can agree disagree with politics for sure.
Right? Like you can't get lazy. And her point is that the AI race between US and China is speeding up the entire revolution. And that's really good for companies like Tesla that operate in both company in both countries. Okay? So, Cathie frames it as a positive and we're seeing kind of leapfrog back and forth, but the net result, like I say, is everything moving faster.
More GPUs being used, faster development cycles for urgency. And if you're long AI, like I am, long Tesla, this competition, I think, is quite positive. It's a tailwind, not a headwind. She talks about the money angle, right? She talks about investing and what does it mean for you me and you as investors?
And she actually mentions healthcare AI as what she calls like the most profound application of AI. The regulation, to be fair, she says strangling the US essentially, to which focus on safety and not enough on efficacy. And I think she's right about the potential there. But for Tesla investors, I think three things matter from this interview.
Number one, the $2,600 price target is on robotaxis alone. Free upside there, not priced in anywhere. We know that. It's Cathie. Number two, she thinks that she's actually too conservative on Optimus, right? The most bullish person in the room says that they're most they're not bullish enough. I think I want to pay attention a little bit, although I might not fully agree.
Number three, the slowly but all then all at once. The tech is here, the data advantage is here, everyone knows it, but it's about regulation and rollout. And I think we're very close to that. So, as a long-term investor, say 3-5 years plus, this actually reinforced a lot of my conviction. And I'm not changing my position based on what Cathie says here.
I think we all bits and bobs agree with her, maybe not her timeline, but it's nice to hear one of the few institutional investors who actually understand Tesla layout their thesis so clearly. The risk is and always will be execution at time with Tesla Elon, right? With Cathie with timing, too, right?
She's early on robotaxis, but she'll probably all probably be early on Optimus, as well. But being early is actually quite different than being wrong, in my opinion. And in this case, I'd rather be early and right than late and scrambling, which I think most of Wall Street is going to do. So, that's the majority of her Morningstar interview broken down, $2,600 price target, the wall of worry, the quiet part out loud about not being conservative or being too conservative on human or robots.
Let me know what you think in the comments. You think she's right? Do you think it's bigger than robotaxis? Do you I'm genuinely curious what you guys think. Drop me a comment down below. Follow me on X or Twitter @hayashi. Link in the description for more real-time takes between videos. Hit the subscribe on your way out. Catch you on the next one. Yes, I'm signing off. Peace.
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