저자: KimchiCrypto · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 8만 달러 아래로 밀린 상황에서 발행자는 공포 구간을 매수 기회로 보고 비트코인을 소량 추가 매수했다고 밝힌다. 다만 단기 가격을 맞히려 하지 않으며 저점 매수 전략을 강조한다. 시장 환경: 비트코인은 약 2% 하락한 79,800달러 부근에서 거래됐고, 이번 주 수요일 연준 회의, 목요일 PCE와 3분기 GDP 발표, 금요일 일본은행 금리 결정, 대형 기술주 실적 발표가 겹쳐 변동성이 클 것으로 본다. 12월 금리 인상 가능성이 유동성 압박 요인으로 거론된다. 기술적 지지선: 발행자가 인용한 Virtual Bacon은 50주 EMA 부근 약 87,000달러가 일반적 조정 지지선이며, 50주 SMA 약 76,000달러는 심각한 훼손 시에만 도달하는 하단으로 본다. 발행자는 76,000~78,000달러 구간도 매수 기회일 수 있다고 주장한다. 강세장 지지대: Benjamin Cowen은 5월 고점 아래에서 주간 종가가 한 번 더 나오면 강세장 지지대인 약 73,000~77,000달러로 밀릴 수 있으며, 이 밑으로 내려가면 약세장 진입 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 발행자는 그 진입 가능성에 동의하지 않는다고 말한다. 심리 지표: Charles Edwards는 비트코인 풋콜 비율이 1.46으로 콜 대비 풋이 극단적으로 많아 숏 스퀴즈 가능성이 있다고 언급했다. 발행자는 다음 주나 한 달 내 반등을 기대하는 뉘앙스다. Dr. Profit 인용으로 개인투자자 대부분이 이탈했고 7만 달러 하락을 예상하는 숏 포지션이 많다는 점도 언급된다. Peter Schiff은 역지표로 쓰이며, 그가 8만 달러 붕괴와 7만 5천 달러 목표를 말한 것이 오히려 반등 신호로 해석된다. 발행자 입장: 가격 예측은 하지 않으며, 트럼프 발언 등 외부 변수로 언제든 급락할 수 있다고 인정한다. 그럼에도 공포 구간에서 소량씩 분할 매수하는 전략을 유지하며, 알트코인에도 같은 원칙을 적용할 수 있다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone. This is Kimchi Crypto. Today I will talk about why I added more satoshi. Why now? Let's get started. Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000 as traders reduce risk ahead of the Fed meeting this Wednesday. Data on PCE and US GDP for the third quarter will also be released. This will be announced on Thursday, October 29th.
And on Friday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. Additionally, many tech giants are reporting earnings this week. The week is expected to be quite volatile. Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to $79,800 as traders reduced risk ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting. At the same time, Ether, XRP, and other major tokens also declined.
Investors are awaiting signals of a possible rate hike in December, which could tighten liquidity and put pressure on cryptocurrencies and stocks. A prolonged sell-off in Asian tech stocks has weighed on market sentiment, while Bitcoin needs to return to $82,500 to restore buyer confidence. Well, I don't know the price of Bitcoin in a week or next month, but I intuitively feel that the fear right now is greatly exaggerated—not only in the crypto market, but also in the stock market.
To be honest, I don't care so much whether Bitcoin goes up this week or next month. That's why I just added a little more satoshi today. I try to buy on fear. I try to buy at the bottoms. Virtual Bacon noted that Bitcoin currently has two 50-week moving averages. Exponential (EMA) reacts faster. Therefore, normal subsidence usually reaches it.
It's near the $87,000 mark. Simple (SMA), around 76 thousand, is only reached when something is seriously wrong. So, the EMA is the pullback line, and the SMA, the simple moving average, is the lower limit. In short , $76 or $78k could be the same unique buying opportunity that Virtual Bacon is talking about.
My argument is, does it matter whether you buy at $80,000, $78,000, or $76,000? Benjamin Cowen mentioned that with a second weekly close below the May high, Bitcoin is likely to soon drop to the bull market support zone. Bitcoin could fall to its bull market support range, which is currently around $73,000 to $77,000.
As long as we are above this range, we remain in a " bull" market. Otherwise, according to Benjamin Cowen, we could enter a "bear" market. But I don't object. I mean, uh, I don't agree with him that we're going into a "bear" market, to be honest. But we can touch a few lines, you know, hit rock bottom, sink.
It doesn't matter to me , to be honest. As Crypto noted, he has been in crypto for the last three cycles. He analyzes the market every day and manages millions of dollars. This is exactly what will happen next. He has no idea, because at any moment Trump could say something and send us all down the drain.
Well, to some extent I agree. Here's the thing: the successful formula we've used for the last 20, 30, even 50 years no longer works. I try not to predict anything, especially the price of Bitcoin. Well, Dr. Profit noted that in Bitcoin, almost every retail investor has already exited the market. Each of them is now predicting 70 thousand.
Again, as we did, say, 2 months ago, when we were waiting for 50 thousand, 40 thousand, remember. And they all mostly open short positions. The crowd is always wrong, and the market will quickly turn around, once again leaving behind those who didn't have time to buy. Another guy said that Bitcoin will continue to scare you with these fake dumps until you stop acting like cowards.
Well, only the paranoid survive. This reminds me of Anthony Pompliano mentioning this. Well, Peter Schiff, Bitcoin is finally falling. It's hard to believe he lasted this long. Now that it is below $80,000 , the next stop is likely $75,000 . If this level doesn't hold today, it will be a very long, you know, "bear" market.
Here they are again, right here. But Willy Wu noted that Peter Schiff is extremely valuable to the Bitcoin community as a countersignal. This post alone gives a 70% probability that Bitcoin will bounce off $80,000. Who will be right? Well, I've been in this crypto industry for the last 12 years. And that's true.
What is the truth? Peter Schiff was a great contrarian for the Bitcoin price. Is everything different this time ? Charles Edwards: Well, there are no guarantees, but when Bitcoin's put-call ratio gets this extreme, the local decline is usually limited. Bitcoin put-call ratio, you know, options bets.
Call options mean, uh, that they expect, you know, a price increase. A put is a "bear" bet. Typically, the put-call ratio is around 0.5 or 0.8 on average. There are usually more call options on Bitcoin than put options. But now the put to call ratio is 1.46. There are currently 2.03 times more bearish bets on Bitcoin.
A short squeeze is more likely, maybe in a week or next week, who knows for sure. But I think, statistically speaking, Ash Crypto sees so much bearish sentiment in the feed that it tells him: Bitcoin will explode in November. And Virtual Bacon noted: if Bitcoin goes up now or in 2 months, then why are we arguing here?
I agree, and I hope that's how it will be. Dan Held, he's one of those Bitcoin maximalists. If you can't stand me at minus 36%, you don't deserve me at plus 1000% bitcoin. But I changed this phrase a little . If you can't stand me at minus 70%, you don't deserve me at plus 1000%. This may also apply to major altcoins.
That's why I just added a little more. What about you? Thank you for your attention.
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