저자: DarrenYoong · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 장기투자 관점 논의. 금리인상·경기침체 우려로 S&P500과 테슬라가 크게 하락했으나 테슬라는 펀더멘털(마진·현금흐름, 신규 공장, FSD 확대)이 강하다는 주장. 밸류에이션(PER) 부담은 인정하나 장기 투자자에겐 매력적이라고 봄. 신규 투자자에게는 포트폴리오 집중 위험과 변동성(베타 1.9)을 강조. 적립식(DCA)은 하락장에서 효과적이라는 견해. 사회자는 테슬라 시승 경험 소개.
다듬은 글
hey what is up guys today we're here we have Darren and uh this is actually his second time appearing on this channel and we have actually done a few videos together in fact we actually just filmed another video so remember to check out Darren's Channel I'll put it right here for you so Darren let's talk about Tesla and it's been sometimes since we last met in June I believe so a lot has changed in U.S market a lot of Great Heights have been uh being done by the Federal Reserve in this year alone more than 400 beats already had and next thing because we are filming right before the fomc meeting we're gonna get another radar as well so a total of 450 500 views straight high in the span of 12 to 14 months and crypto Market it's literally gone right the S P 500 down almost 20 this year here today and over on Tesla our favorite Tesla is down about 55 year to date and the fear of earnings recession is blooming when we see that the average American's savings are going down so much and uh well of course that will translate to a potential earnings recession because discretionary spending Tesla has a cut that's not as an expensive product will there be a fear of a demand instruction when it comes to less love and also we see that competitors like bye is ramping up their efforts and competing so ferociously in Malaysia byd actually just announced that they are launching in Malaysia they're providing on Arrow tree is selling at starting at 150 000 Ringgit and that's actually very very affordable so half the price for Tesla in Malaysia right now they easily half the price of Tesla the base model of Tesla Model 3.
so Darren what's your outlook and what's your take um maybe share with me a little bit of your opinion towards Tesla right now every time we are on that channel that's a stock price percent see where that goes well where we've been is we went from a very high optimism of the bull market 18 months ago so now the very high pessimism for Bear market today we've seen the very rapid swings in just under two years so for investors you really wonder what's going on with Tesla yeah we talked about being long-term investors it's very hard to be a long-term investor when you feel that your Investments are going down way more than other companies that you will feel that the fundamentals are not so strong some of the traditional Automotive companies are doing better with a stock price standpoint than Tesla but there also educated me that companies that Tesla but High data High volatility that means very high upside very high downside when the S P 500 goes down by 20 Tesla could put out by 40 50 Amazon's also been down 40 50 as well I think it is time it is a good reminder to double check our convictions we say we are long-term investors easy to say in the belt in a bull market now on the bear Market we are tested we ask ourselves you have sleepless nights you wake up worry if that happens I think that's a signal that our convictions are not as strong as we like to believe it to be a conscious level of conviction versus our subconscious belief in it Peace of Mind very important for me personally I've been okay I've always said the result goes out by 50 that's part of long term the best thing Warren Buffett say as well if you're not willing to buy the stock with a dollar 15 don't buy it today I also remind myself that I'm not literally all in on Tesla I'm not 100 in a Tesla in my public stock portfolio I'm right now 77 Tesla 20 apple and a little bit like three percent or a very small portfolio yeah so same same but different I see the fundamentals of Tesla being stronger in the recession it was in a recession strong companies try companies that are not strong grow weaker cash flow profits are so critical Tesla uniquity has been growing at profit margins and cash flow even the recent news that cut prices two times in Thailand the entire Market China going down year and year by nine percent that's not sales in domestic China going up by double you're going up 100 this year here today if I look at the execution we invest in this company let's both execute well did they activate and launch legal taxes in Berlin yes they didn't ramp up faster yes they do it's not perfect but these two factories are there these two factories are potential I mean this is a context where most other car factories are not building new factories inside they are even shutting down production lines Toyota a few other companies are shutting down production lines very few companies like byd byd is building a new EV Factory in Thailand apart from Tesla byd the fundamentals are much tougher than the rest of the industry for eight years people have been asking full self-driving data to dreams and joke never been released North America is now wide release that means it went from 116 000 users to run the growth but now 300 000 users basically anyone will eventually not Miracle can use it at low commitment you don't need to pay like 60 000 up front it's yet and I buy it's a model 3 a model Y in California we just pay a monthly subscription past one month and talk so that software about new means this quarter Tesla can actually recognize a fair bit of default revenue and ongoing I think it gives people more confidence at the margins I see the fundamentals looking good yeah also mentioned Elon Musk is more distracted right isn't that ironic that Tesla is run by a CEO who's running multiple properties and we are executing as well as a lot better than most other car companies that's actually a bullish signal for me in fact recently when people ask Elon are you still not working on Tesla and SpaceX he said on Twitter yeah but the teams are running so well that they need little input from me I'm still overseeing them these top two priorities this year are still FSD beta launch it's only down to North America and Starship orbital launch fingers crossed label this one yeah I was just talking to Darren about the internet I guess we give a little bit context to the audience I was talking to Darren about Elon Musk being seemingly distracted with Twitter and also he's just being super political uh you know just ping ponging with the Democrats as well so that itself is uh honestly it's a it's a area of common sense because they are stepping out of your comfort zone really reaching out to more people but understandably I personally believe that Elon is actually just there to like the drive of the daily active users for Twitter and probably this is part of the digital marketing strategy like you never know right so that is done so Darren now we are approaching 2023 let's say that recession is probably coming right can Elon Musk himself also tweeted that too much rate thanks probably we will induce a recession and it's going to be bad so what do you think about Tesla uh as a whole is it still a strong investment right now as compared to other companies and also what's your exit plan uh is there anything that will trigger you to yourself that's love for me in this situation Tesla is a stronger long-term investment because while the price has went out the value has went up some people say let's not use a piggy ratio of 1100 1100 a the TV now is closer to 50.
other people are still 55 4 has a b of eight Volkswagen of speed of like four or five so it's still overvalued check dyd's Fe ratio vyd is a p ratio of 55. if you look at companies Amazon and PE ratio is like 87 Apple a bit lower level 20. so if you add conviction the Tesla before the recession before the stock price production as a long-term investor the value is solid so I see that's not being more attractive for long-term investors long-term means you hold at least five years for people who need a return within two to three years I think Tesla is probably a less attractive investment now not just because of recession but because it's point if you are a new investor you see Tesla you see the CEO running multiple companies so most people it's going to be very hard to process this right because if you're a new investor look at Tesla what the financial looks solid right but then people tell you the pig is too high people tell you that the CEO is battling politics very risky yeah so it will create a lot of confusion for new investors or new investors it's not like they think you buy multiple stock because like you date multiple people first with Tesla second marriage usually people invest Tesla they have a pretty big part of their portfolio under Tesla 60 or more as you can see from both of us so it's not for everyone I think for long-term investors you work on bins there's something you can think about but most people find something that you have the comfort factor and I think to for both our portfolio we have tackle yeah Apple's easy to understand it's well loved by retail institutional investors relatively liquid it pays dividends it is truly the ultimate entry level it will be friendly stock and speaking about moving friendly stock I've had questions from my followers that they ask me is it Tesla is so huge land but Evie got solar got you know uh so many things left and right it's so hard to understand Tesla there is there any way for a newbie or completely new investor into the market or just new towards Tesla what are the themes that you need to look into what are the entry level kind of information or the top line that people should look into Tesla so that they can understand the company better and then eventually choose to invest in them because understandably Tesla has a beta of 1.9 which is the volatility against the broad Market one point is very high and in comparison apple has a beta of 1.1 only so choosing to go into such a volatile stock it takes a lot of conviction and conviction safe will say can only be built through Direction so maybe you can share a little bit more on that I think a simple starting point for new investors to Tesla read their quarterly earnings read their annual impact report and listen to their earnings form the Tesla earnings calls are relatively direct pretty straightforward and there's a very strong retail investor base most of the top questions on say.com Where they ask for investment questions and installed are from retail investors Tesla is a very retail investor friendly company when it comes to communication talking to them about that so another is one point second there's so many good YouTube resources to follow Tesla the top two OG would be bravely on investing he's got a very calm long-term approach Mission oriented approach on Tesla and if you want a daily date Tesla daily we brought power these two are solid if you are on Twitter like many Tesla investors then you've also got Sawyer married who gives very good Twitter updates breaking news on what's Happening for Tesla and the industry that's not as one of the most transparent companies to invest with the queen this year as we saw the crypto press many people have been saying I need to start investing in investors that I can understand for a long time every time someone talk about something crypto related to say oh yeah it will make more money the returns to be used thinking you're making eight percent per month people we've always been wondering where does the money come from what does crypto do for me so that comes to my other point when you invest in plasma most of you are probably in a country where you can see Teslas on the road the product is physically there talk to a friend write in one ask them is this really a good car cannot get is it a big problem for you why do you buy this car so expensive in the U.S the majority of people who buy Tesla switch from hot Mercedes or BMW which is like the same here but the majority of volumes of Tesla and us come from Honda and Toyota it means these people are trading up it is like going from a Nokia phone to an iPhone why are people doing that that answer you can only find when you talk to orders analysts it may not have a lot of insight there looks like how to use Apple products we can give you Insight on why M1 is so revolutionary it was the analyst about M1 it's like just another chip with apple it's just another unbased chip yeah yeah what's the big deal what's so special you asked a design professional creative professional what's the big deal for M1 they can tell you an essay so I think that's my other thing just use the product as well in addition to all those research ways it sounds like a lot right but you don't have to do all you can pick your own pace the point here is even this example people I spoke of how much opportunity and research there are for Tesla in Singapore when I base them we even have communities for Tesla owners and Tesla investors the Tesla investor Community a telegraph group in Singapore is more than 500 people so any question you want to ask what is Elon Musk distracted what's so good about model 3 what is modeling why selling so well what other business lines do they have what's the big deal about Tesla Insurance you'll be someone answering you it's very hard to find this community that my as Apple investors we are quite lonely here so nice you just talk to each other we are our own Echo chamber not much friends but I can attest to that the Tesla's Community is really just next level they are so friendly and they are so accommodating in fact today right before filming this video I was actually in a Tesla right with Darren Darren it's kind of kindly uh asked his friend for her to share this right with me and my girlfriend so it was really a very eye-opening experience and maybe a video on that very soon so very quickly like I can share as a investor of Tesla now the first time travel user of a Tesla's car right it's really eye-opening because it's so quiet it's something that you have never never set in before and it's really like you're sitting in the future in the future of Automotive maybe robot XC right so and also the instrument cluster is just next level like my card instrument cluster is as laggy as you can get right and right no issues but with with Tesla's instrument cluster it's so huge and it shows all the details that you need for your drive for you to plan your destination it's just so nice to use and rightfully so as a decimal investor myself I don't really get the experience to um sit inside a Tesla also model 3 in Malaysia right so having that experience really uh opens up my app because I can ask questions that normally you don't get access to unless you really have a car yourself right uh what's the fastest way to charge it what's the keyboard to change it how much to charge it is it really doable to drive a peninsula from Singapore to you know police or you know just says Johor right even 300 kilometers kind of Drive I was asking fire and myself I'm quite anxious and it gives me anxiety knowing that my trip takes 450 kilometers but the car can support 550 kilometers and to be honest that's not much buffer so not much buffer in terms of distance so having Farhan having a Tesla completely having Darren to show me and actually uh tell me that that's actually we can plan your route ahead and actually if you know how to put on the correct settings you can actually go further than uh what the average people would use in the city so I think that's a very valid point so Darren I was I think KFC yesterday and to be honest I love chicken a lot KFC in Malaysia is solid number one and uh to be honest I actually eat KFC quite a bit but recently I've toned down I've gone to gym twice a week physical training SEO can see through my Instagram stories so less chicken but I have a question for you A lot of people actually some people I was saying that the dollar cost averaging is quote unquote dumb in this environment you are just catching in Falling marks what's your thought on that is DCA that I think that not everyone is a genius and that's okay you look at Tesla investors from 2013 to 2018 the stock was flat I was just talking to a long-term Malaysian Tesla investor last night with a friend's wedding dinner and I was saying they were lonely back then there was no like Tesla daily or the community like that they were just talking about themselves saying are we stupid are weak City like you know we just putting the money there and our investment is fed for five six years well all our friends are doing better than us then they couldn't time it but they never knew no one really knew that from 2018 2020 Boom the stock went up by 10 15 times the whole when you're when you're underperforming people without a pause average that's not a part that is a feature of dollar cost average there will be moments where you underperform there will be moments that you over perform that's a feature dollar cost average doesn't mean you over perform all the time no otherwise the whole world with our calls averaging another point to think about is trading is effective it's not for everyone it's a choice it's not better or worse it's a choice yet when you see the Fortune 500 the richest people in the world most of them are not Traders you don't find traders in Fortune 500 people I think wealth is built by building businesses or long-term investing long-term investing is also more accessible to more people it's like can you become a world champion poker player self-care they could make great Traders for everyone else we can't just listen to advice on YouTube buy or sell or stuff that is very dangerous and risky everyone's personal situation is different right so you've got to make a call without the playing again but all costs averaging if you're underperforming it's not a bug it's a feature there'll be moments when you underperform and a few years from now there will be moments where you over perform don't get too happy because it will also underperform again a year a few years after that yeah I think that's a very I think a good takeaway from what Darren just mentioned really I think the first step is to really understand what is the dollar cost averaging I think the missing information here is reporting Dollar Plus averaging means you will be at the market you'll beat lump sum you beat every single strategy out there just buy buy buy then you outperform in fact that is not the case right but statistics have shown Circle performance action dollar cost averaging works the best during a bear Market but it tells me that people actually say DCA is dumb in this market so again it's up to you I'm not here to recommend that DCA is the best or DC is the worst of timing is the best right again ask yourself what's your investment Horizon what's your financial situation if you need the cash in the in the short term two to three to four years well of course then play around and also adjust your risk appetite you don't have to go all in an ECA all the time even though you are you know have having cash flow issues right that's obviously that's not recommended but obviously thank you so much for today's session I've learned a lot from you a lot on Tesla and also thank you so much for the first track my Tesla Model 3 in Malaysia I'm very honored to share the experiences here today it was it was yeah it was yeah I was a speechless back then so yeah hopefully uh we can arrange another ride in a Tesla or maybe with Farhan let's see maybe another filming session in Singapore hopefully So yeah thank you so much for watching guys uh remember to subscribe and also subscribe to Darren's Channel I'll put it over here for you to subscribe and uh yeah take care and see you in the next one bye the rap
Comments 0