저자: PatrickWieland · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금요일 대형 하락 이후 월요일 방향은 단정하기 어렵고, 엔비디아·구글·아마존·페이스북의 주요 지지/저항 구간을 기준으로 롱/숏 대응을 준비해야 한다. 시장 상황: 지난 수개월간 빅테크가 신고가를 경신했으나 금요일 큰 조정이 나왔고, 버블 붕괴 가능성에 대한 경계가 커졌다. 월요일에는 추가 조정 후 반등 또는 횡보 가능성을 열어두고 있으며, 주말 정치 이슈와 해외 증시 흐름을 주시하라고 언급했다. 엔비디아(NVDA): 금요일 약 168 고점에서 142까지 급락했다. 씨트론의 부정적 보고서가 130 부근 적정가를 언급한 점을 근거로 142 지지 이탈 시 137, 140 부근 하락 가능성을 제시했다. 148 부근 재조정 시 152~154 구간 숏 대응, 142 재지지 확인 시 롱 대응, 152 지지 전환 후 158 돌파 시 추가 상승을 기대했다. 상승 여부는 거래량과 가격 움직임에 달렸다고 했다. 페이스북(META): 금요일 155 고점 후 146까지 밀렸다가 149 부근으로 반등했다. 149 지지 유지 시 150 돌파 및 154 방향 롱을 고려했고, 이탈 시 146, 143 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 엔비디아 대비 방어적 플레이로 평가했다. 구글(GOOGL): 시작가 약 1,000 부근에서 957까지 밀렸다가 약 973으로 반등했다. 960 지지 유지 시 1,000 회복 기대, 940·920 이탈 시 880 부근 하락을 언급했다. 아마존(AMZN): 1,000 돌파 후 금요일 990 부근에서 약 962까지 조정, 983 부근 반등. 960 지지 유지 시 상승 롱 기회, 980 부근 저항에서 숏 가능, 940·920·900 하락 지지선을 제시했다. 전략: 시장이 오르면 롱, 급락하면 숏으로 대응하며, 가장 피해야 할 상황은 방향 없이 횡보하는 장이라고 강조했다. 어떤 방향이든 큰 변동성을 기대하는 태도다.
다듬은 글
after Friday's big selloff is it a good time to buy stocks is it a good time to buy tech stocks most importantly is it a good time to buy Facebook Nvidia Google Apple Amazon what's going on with the tech bubble what can we expect on Monday so over the last couple months the market has been making all new highs the big tech stocks have all been making new highs it seemed like the party would never stop and it would just keep going higher and higher and higher and Friday was our first real day showing people that the bubble might burst sooner than they thought the bubble didn't burst but it had a nice little selloff and it kind of reminded people that the market doesn't go straight up and there's always going to be those days where there's going to be pullbacks there's going to be opportunities to short these big Tech runs and make profit when there's a big sell off Nidia on Friday big sell off there up to 160 range pulled back all the way down to the low 140 range so Nvidia big mover on Friday had a bearish article come out from Citron talking about how they thought the price was way over inflated that it deserved more like a $130 area before going higher so looking at the Nvidia chart kind of breakdown where Nvidia might open on Monday where it might go if it has a possibility to go lower and kind of the game plan on what to do with Nvidia if you're long if you're looking to go short what's kind of the game plan is a good time to dip by on Nvidia or is it a good time to go short on Nvidia looking at the five minute Nidia chart here you can see the high of day on Friday was $168 it dropped down to $142 it bounced off this 142 support resistance line from earlier in you'll see here when we pull out you'll see where that was before but after that got back up here to this 15 151 area popped through then pulled back again now it's bouncing around this 148 area into after hours so kind of looking to see what happens at this 148 area if we get a pullback expecting a pull back down to this 142 area from 142 maybe we get another bounce you see this bounce here off the 142 area bounce there at 142 up there to 151 so big move there $10 move if you'd have got in there at the bottom you'd have made a nice $10 profit on each share on that move you can see as the day went on it it kind of just crashed down didn't really have much support as it was crashing down big selloff you know I think what happened here is you had this big rally if you look at the chart on like the 30 minute you see the last week it's just been rallying rallied up from 142 on Monday all the way up there to 168 so really just a huge move there you can see the moves all really happen like pre-market there big move and then on Thursday that big move again pre-market running up big 168 and pulling back so really key areas to watch on Monday for NVIDIA is going to be that 142 area that was previous support area it worked again so we're going to look for that 142 area as key area to watch so have that on your chart 142 area as being a possible dip by if it breaks through 142 this could possibly bleed down to that 13 7 area cuz doesn't doesn't look like there's much support after that 142 for now maybe you know that 140 area but looks like if 140 breaks it's going to go down this 137 easy on that back to that support you got to remember that Citron report the bearish article was talking about this going down to the 130 area so 130 area is kind of the low end of the range here that we would possibly see this go they're thinking that it goes back down to this 126 130 area there on this get back to gravity get back to Earth and then start moving higher if it starts trading sideways and and slowly starts going up that could happen as well so kind of looking for those key areas 142 158 if you're looking to go short look to go short here at the 152 area possibly 154 depending how it acts there and then look for that move back to this 142 area if this support here at 148 holds and it starts to go higher and then wants to turn 152 area into support going to look to go along for this move up to 158 and then through 158 could be even nicer nice move higher there so really going to depend on the volume and the price action like I said we're going to be looking to see if this is going to go sideways or if this is going to go up or down fast also taking a look at Facebook what's going on with Facebook Facebook obviously owns the social media world right now owning Instagram owning Facebook their themselves the actual largest website in the world in terms of media sharing with social media people interacting there every single day Facebook ads making tons of profit right now so take a look at Facebook get an idea on the Range there where to buy on Monday where to maybe short sell on Monday and kind of look at where it might go and some of the areas that it might drop down to so so Facebook opening up Friday at 155 at that high there kind of not doing much for the week kind of just bouncing off this 152 area having some support there and then on Friday getting up to 155 and then selling off with the rest of the NASDAQ Tech sector and you can see dropping from 155 down there to 146 so from that 146 area it bounced pretty hard back up here to this 149 area 149 you can see here on the 1 hour chart we had previous support there at the 147 and 149 area so it dipped down there to that 147 area and then jumped back up here to this 149 so not as bad as Nvidia but still nice little sell off there 143 kind of being the previous support resistance so Monday looking at that 149 area to hold if 149 holds it might be a good long for for a move back up above 150 154 not expecting as big of a move here off of Facebook expecting maybe more of a selloff if it does start to crash if the market doesn't look good in the tech sector on Monday so Facebook could be a could be a safer play If you're looking to go short for only a couple dollars it might pull back down here to this 146 area and then even down the 143 so kind of looking at Facebook as a safer bet if it wants to go up it's going to go up a little bit if it wants to go down it's going go down a little bit maybe it sells off bigger but kind of what I'm looking at right now I see some some more support compared to Nvidia which had a huge run up it's got some support on the way down I don't see as big of a move here on Facebook but there's still going to be a play here on Facebook keep an eye on this maybe possibly bouncing here off the 149 area and then running back up above 150 getting up to that 152 area and then watching those areas 151 152 being support previous support areas Friday everything just broke through there down in that 146 147 support area and now it's back up above 149 for now so keep an eye on Facebook for those key areas taking a look at Google where Google might be headed in terms of support and resistance here is it a good time to dip by is it a good time to go short kind of look at some gaps in the chart and kind of look where the next strong support area is going to be so Google's at $1,000 there beginning of Friday pulled back there to 957 bounc off that area and then came back up here to the 973 and 962 kind of bounc in that area right there if you look at the overall chart we got we got some support there to 939 area got some support there at 917 and then 885 so Google so Google having more support there but still some big gaps if we break through this 940 area and then 920 it's going to really crash but I highly doubt we're going to lose that much might get a pullback to this 940 area then bounce there maybe we just bounce off 960 and it goes back back up to 1,000 we'll see what happens on Monday but kind of looking at these key areas if this gets below 900 definitely see a nice pullback to the 880 area but that 920 area is kind of be support for now and then 900 so 940 there so looking at 940 920 and then 880 area and then from there maybe 830 but I highly doubt we're going to get that much of a pullback here we'll see what happens but kind of expecting these kind of key areas looking for that 960 to hold here on Google right now and if Google wants to keep going higher it might get back up to that ,000 Amazon broke through $1,000 last week Amazon was a big mover people thought that Amazon would never get to $1,000 and now after Friday doing a bit of a pullback there is it time to jump in on Amazon long or is it time to short sell Amazon for a possible drop down again Amazon opened up above a th000 on Friday and then pulled back down to this 990 area and then from there pulled back down here to 962 from 962 from 962 it bounced up here to 983 and then 970 there so kind of watching these areas that 990 area is going to be key area to watch for a break if it breaks we're going to expect this to go back higher if this wants to keep pulling back and can of watch this area here at 960 so if you look back here on the 1 hour chart you can see there's support resistance there at the 940 area 930 area so from there see a move maybe lower down to 8 880 and then the 840 being previous support resistance so kind of watching Amazon to go along here is going to hold this 960 area if it holds 960 area could be a possible Good Dip by there for a move back up to highs if it doesn't want to hold there look for another pullback down this 940 920 area and then all the way down here to 900 if it gets really crazy at the 960 area for that move back up maybe goes up to 980 has some trouble there at 980 maybe 980 is a good short for a move back down low it really just depends what happens on Monday but kind of keeping these areas in check here watching that 940 area and then 960 area kind of 980 area and 900 area being kind of the low end of a short Target if the 900 breaks could get really bad and come down here to 880 880 doesn't look too strong so really this 9 4938 area being kind of the next major support there having a couple days a months of holding that 940 area so we're going to expect this not to be as big of a move as in media as like I said with Google but kind of watching Amazon overall for a possible long here to go in at the 960 area if 960 wants to hold if 960 holds going to expect the move higher looking at the big tech stocks looking to see what's going to happen on Monday had a big sell off on Friday are we going to rally on Monday back up to the highs are we going to keep crashing or are we going to trade sideways it'll really depend on how people want to trade on Monday what the market consensus is and kind of the news over the weekend anything happening political whatever Trump's saying whatever the overall kind of world is thinking we'll see how the foreign markets do Monday morning and that'll kind of bleed over into the US markets there on open on Monday might get bit of a pullback there on Monday and then a big rally after that or we might keep heading lower or like I said we might just trade sideways so really going to depend on what happens Monday overall I'm kind of thinking that we might get get more of a pullback on Monday after that big pullback on Friday people are going to be scared at any kind of pullback Monday if we get a big pullback expecting to go even lower give you guys kind of an idea looking at the chart where to trade kind of support resistance levels coming up for those key stocks like Nvidia Facebook Google Amazon and AMD also if you guys have any questions like I said be ready for whatever happens on Monday if the market wants to Rally I'll be going long if the market wants to crash I'll be going short that's kind of the game plan going either way up down whichever way it's going to go hopefully it's going to go up really fast or hope it's going to go down really fast the worst thing that could happen really is that the market just kind of Trades sideways doesn't really move much and doesn't give us opportunity to trade to make profit there on those swings so that's kind of the goal looking for a big move either up or down either way going to be ready to play it here knowing where the support resistance areas are and having a game plan going into Monday knowing what stocks are hot right now what stocks could possibly crash lower and having a good plan here depending what happens with the tech stocks we'll see what happens but over overall looking forward to a big day on Monday I will talk to you guys later
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