저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장 랠리는 무역전쟁 완화 기대뿐 아니라 은행·소비·데이터·반도체·제약·엔터·애플·항공 등 '수요'가 뒷받침하기 때문에 사상 최고치 근처까지 갈 수 있다는 낙관론. [거시·무역] 미중 무역협상 진전으로 침체됐던 주식들이 살아났으며, 세계 경제는 타격을 받았지만 관세 우려보다 협상 기대가 시장을 움직였다고 봄. [은행] JP모건·씨티·BOA 실적이 매우 좋았고 국내 소비가 강해 산업 부진을 상쇄. 소비가 미국 경제의 2/3를 차지해 은행주에 우호적. 금리가 낮아 기업들이 채권을 발행해 자사주를 매입하는 것도 수요 요인. [버블 논쟁] 저금리 부양이라는 버블 비판에 대해 미국 금리는 유럽·일본보다 높아 '싼 돈'이 아니라고 반박하고, 버블이라는 말도 1982년 이후 계속 들어왔다고 언급. [주택] 주택 재고 부족으로 거래량이 제한적이지만 거래는 활발. 주택 판매 회복은 월마트·아마존·타깃·코스트코·홈디포 등 소매와 비자·마스터카드·페이팔에 순풍. [데이터] 데이터 관련 기업(오라클·세일즈포스·스플렁크·시스코·트윌리오·엔비디아·페이스북·트위터·알파벳·아마존)이 성장 수혜. 스포티파이 실적 호조 언급. 인텔·AMD 등 반도체 랠리도 데이터 처리 수요 덕분. 클라우드(AWS·구글·MS 애저·IBM) 언급. [제약] 항암제가 제약사의 대형 사업이며 BMS-셀진 결합, 아스트라제네카 항암 사업, 머크 키트루다 등이 강세. 아스트라제네카 배당과 파이프라인(154개 약물)을 긍정적으로 평가. [엔터] 미디어 플랫폼이 콘텐츠 경쟁 중이며 애플·HBO 실적 발표를 주목. [애플] 아이폰11이 과소평가됐다는 입장. 3카메라·배터리 수명이 인기 요인, 서비스 매출 및 웨어러블·에어팟 등 생태계 강조. [항공·보잉] 항공 수요는 공급을 압도하며 보잉 주가가 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것으로 봄. 아메리칸항공 CEO 인터뷰 언급. [투자 질의] 금 비중은 포트폴리오 10% 이하 권고, 금광주 골드(GOLD)·이글 등을 언급. 모더나는 투기적 종목으로 보며 아스트라제네카를 더 선호.
다듬은 글
the claim Erica only people wanna make friends let me try and you want to know what's driving this market to new all-time highs now gaining 133 points a SP climbing 0.56% that's that homeboy 1.0 1% it's not the fact it's not the trade talks it's a demand yes demand for money demand from the man forget a processing demand for cancer drugs programming demand for fabulous south coast we have a place and of course perhaps most important demand for stocks yet if you listen to most of the experts you'll hear a lot of sound and fury about how the global economies get gotten weaker because the trade war has shut down international trade I don't want to sugarcoat anything the global economy has absolutely taken a hit year over year and the tariffs are part of that but here's the thing many stocks were trading like we were about to get it even more stringent round towers and that didn't happen instead the president started negotiating with China and that allowed a host of flailing stocks to get their mojo back the trade truth just made it possible though without strong demand the averages never would have made it this far let me walk you through the places where that demand is most palpable so you see why kept hitting that buy buy buy button first there's the demand for money with interest rates ultra low banks are doing brisk business especially with the consumer the financial started running when JP Morgan Citigroup and Bank of America kicked off this earnings season with really truly astonishing numbers the big takeaway from this reporting period is that domestic consumers are so strong they've been able to offset the industrial we dis related to world trade given that the consumer accounts for two-thirds of the US economy the banks are in great shape and that's how their stocks could rock it higher no wonder LVMH which is the big French company wants to buy Tiffany a flush consumer is a Tiffany shopper no big yet but a stock that's up 31% whoa nah we're not gonna miss that and made money are we alright it's not just the consumer businesses also have ratios aptitude appetite for money so many companies realized they can borrow at low rates and then use that money to buy back stock when the market goes down hardly a day goes by without a bunch of corporate debt being offered and what I think are ridiculously low rates but appetizing to anyone who wants to earn more than Treasuries there's been more than a trillion dollars with a corporate debt issued so far this year they're using some of that money to expand but someone's going to buy packs I know it's easy to dismiss all this is the Fed propping up the stock market with cheap money and I see it in my Twitter file all day guys guys I know it what do you want me to say our interest rates are higher than the rest of the developed world's okay compared to Europe or Japan our money's not cheap at all so enough already with Jim it's all just a big bubble you know what I'm here to try to help you make money not to pop bubbles either way when there's strong demand for money the banks have good earnings when the backs up good earnings they tend to boost their dividends and bring back big buybacks and when that happens their stocks become investable whether it's a bubble or not again no judgments people you can miss out on a whole rally it's been a bubble let me give you say you know it's been a bubble since August of 1982 number two there's the demand for housing this is hard to see because we simply don't have enough houses for sale in this country that's put a crimp on the mortgage on the aggregate housing numbers but homes are changing hands here and changing hands rapidly ever since the last dip of mortgage rates as anyone in real estate can tell you what matters is turnover you need to see lots of homes being bought and sold that's a major driver of US economy sure housing only accounts for 15% of our economy but it punches above its weight think about everything it goes into a home think about the retailers think about watch my acronym for Walmart Amazon Target Costco Home Depot that they had a nice tailwind US housing sales pick up it's also one reason why the payment processors like Visa MasterCard reports later so PayPal they're all doing so well third there's demand for data now this is the greatest secular growth story of our era data by itself isn't all that potatoes curated massage identified parse manipulated analyzed well that's incredibly valuable there's a whole ecosystem of companies that unlock the power of digital information let's call it Dobby Oracle Salesforce s AP Splunk Cisco Twilio Nvidia Facebook Twitter alphabet Amazon they're all abetters of this process all of them are either they either harvest data or help make sense of it and even after alphabet you may be disappointed with the quarter but boy is it ever in the mix so let's not get too negative and you can't really put a dollar value on something amorphous like data there are too many different kinds of data that said this morning Spotify just reporter much better than expected quarter we interviewed outgoing CFO Barry McCarthy this morning on squawk on the street and you better believe Spotify is using algorithms to push the music to you that you want to hear Spotify seems like a mind-reader well the cut is the company has a map of your brain and it can show you the way of course there are companies that may be using their data nefariously we've got a whole host of politicians who seem to care a lot more about what Facebook's doing with your data than the actual users do I don't know the answer but I do know that data is the coin of the realm as long as they get that data voluntarily I am Telling You I do not see a big deal about Facebook demand for data is also driving the big run in semiconductor stocks like Intel and AMD you need them to process data whether it's at wit at the PC level or the data center level where Nvidia is beginning to dominate again we know Amazon Web Services Google cloud Microsoft Azure and IBM all have capabilities to store and process that data forth when you look at the pharmaceutical landscape but I think it's important to point this out it's clear that combating cancer has become a gigantic tentpole business for many drug companies once bristol-myers murders was Celgene oh they're gonna combine to two amazing oncological franchises into one AstraZeneca cancer business is incredibly strong and Jen's trying to crack in it Merck skete root is already there could be the greatest selling drug of all time this is a usually profitable part of the farm industry and for good reason how about the fifth source of demand right now we're in the golden age of entertain we're media platforms are desperate to give us something to watch does Apple have a programming deficit how about HBO Disney Plus anyone who makes content is surging here we'll see what Apple and HBO have up their sleeves when they report later this week okay now speaking of Apple we'll also find out how well the new iPhones are selling now the eleven was supposed to be a dud I mean people didn't think this was anything special like what are these three things that kind of thing I think people underestimated the appeal of the three cameras in an era where Instagram is everything and the better battery life holy cow cuz I can watch whole football games watch myself lose on in fantasy and still have enough to be able to moan it and call people and say I'm Graham now there are these phones what do they have in it when you break them down when they got the skyworks they got the solution they got the Qualcomm they got the nxp have you seen that in an XP it was going absolutely crazy why because it had fantastic numbers tonight the pin ax is outstanding remember huge service revenue stream comes from the phone as too expensive indispensable Slyke the Apple watch the new noise canceling air pods for when you have babies next huge you know that my wife voices to me shut up and stop complaining when you have us crying baby like it's my fault six planes we had Doug Parker the CEO of American Airlines on the show on Friday and he talked about trying to be reimbursed by Boeing for around 40 million in losses for missed fares thanks to the 737 max disaster Parker's not alone but even though we don't have enough aircraft the demand for air travel continues unabated most people in the world still haven't flown in a plane there are only two big aircraft manufacturers on earth bullion air plus the demand is massively overwhelming supply hence why Boeing stock refuses to roll over I bet you all that negative testimony tomorrow won't really hurt the stock bottom line all this bullsh activity breeds an environment where stocks represent superior value because their earnings dreams are less dependent on the Fed than the macro commentators would have you believe let's say something I really mean this because I thought a lot about it this weekend while my wife was working making pizza these macro guys they're constantly jabbering about a your aggregate now ever talking about the man itself because they don't do the homework it's too time-consuming it keeps you from having that great Cabernet Cabernet okay it keeps you from catching the kids games or bringing maybe binging on Netflix it keeps you from gorging on the NFL but it's what you have to do in order to do this job you need to listen to the conference calls to know who has the man who doesn't right now the demand eyes have it and that's a big reason why we can keep going higher sorry but I just had to put it that way because believe me these weekends are torture during earning season I just wanted a good cab John and Alabama please John hey Jim booyah from the roll tide state no man loved that what's up hey I'm a person retirement the markets approaching all time huh I feel like my portfolio should include gold to help protect my retirement question what percent of my portfolio should be invested in gold and what gold investments would you recommend okay no more than 10% I happen to like if you want to own gold the bullion and then I think you can just go up that's great to have at a safe deposit box please don't burry it I also like the stock through symbols gol D which is back that's that's run by Mark Bristow so that's a nice growth stock it's another way to go it's terrific and I like you very much let's go to you know what I should say that I also like egg Nico Eagle now because I share your like for going let's go to Jason in Illinois Jason mr.
Kramer yes big Windy City booyah - yeah okay I come to Philadelphia and hope we give you a beat down booyah what's up I'm looking at a pharmaceutical for my portfolio alright I like what I like what I see with Astra Zeneca a nice dividend and about 154 drugs in their pipeline right my question my question is should I invest solely in Astra Zeneca or take some mad money gamble a little bit roll the dice and put some into moderna which they own about nine percent okay I'm so glad you put all those Cabot's and because that is what moderna is it is a huge spec when I met them in January at the JPMorgan conference I said what's interesting spec but AstraZeneca is on fire here I really really like them and I think that that is the better one all right demand demand demand demand demand demand demand demand is what's driving this market to all-time highs some companies have it if some don't you need to listen carefully to recognize the difference one made money tonight with all the talk about a potential recession I'm eyeing an extravagant coupe of stocks that could offer a deep dive into the consumers pockets and help your portfolio in the process then is the force with Microsoft that can music one the pentagon's Jedi contract I'm breaking down the action and I'm revealing the biggest surprise of this earning season and explaining my one group of stocks has suddenly become bulletproof
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