저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 아마존 실적 발표 후 주가 하락은 과도하며, 다음 주 중반쯤 매수 적기로 본다. 실적 및 가이던스 우려: 아마존은 연말 분기 실적 부진과 원데이 배송 확대에 따른 비용 증가로 가이던스가 주가를 누르고 있다고 설명됨. 제프 베이조스는 원데이 배송 전환이 장기적으로 옳은 결정이라고 주장. 시장 반응 및 전망: 크레이머는 주가 하락이 브로커의 매도 물량 때문이며, 고객 수요는 강하다고 판단. 이번 크리스마스 실적이 좋을 것으로 기대. 세부 우려 지표: 매출 가이던스와 AWS 성장률 둔화(35%, 4년 내 최저)가 핵심 우려. 크레이머는 AWS 둔화가 데이터센터 시장 전반의 둔화일 수 있으나 구글 실적을 확인해야 한다고 언급. 경쟁 및 수익성: 구글이 점유율을 가져가는지가 핵심 변수라고 봄. 광고 사업은 지난 분기 30%대 성장률을 기록했다고 언급. 향후 원데이 배송 비용이 낮아지면 매출총이익률과 광고 마진이 개선될 것이라고 전망. 과거 패턴 및 리스크: 지난 72회 실적 발표 중 약 3분의 1에서 갭다운이 있었다는 데이터를 제시하며, 이는 특이한 현상이 아니라고 설명. 다만 이 주장은 실적 발표 후 하락이 흔하다는 맥락으로 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 아마존 경영진은 불안해하지 않고 자신들의 역할을 수행 중이라는 입장. 크레이머는 주가가 다음 주 중반 매수 적기라고 재차 강조.
다듬은 글
start with Amazon though an earnings miss disappointing holiday quarter guidance weighing on the stock as the company ramps up spending on one-day shipping in Amazon's earnings release Jeff Bezos said quote customers love the transition of Prime from two days to one day they've already ordered billions of items with free one day delivery this year it's a big investment and it's the right long-term decision for customers we've been down this road before and their track record Jim historically is pretty good on this yes I think that there's a perception that they were downbeat and I think that perception is wrong I think that they are quite confident that they have what people want I think they think it's going to be a great Christmas if that was somehow lost the translation that's a mistake now there are people who are selling it my experience is when you see the stock selling selling down like this it usually the brokers who've got some word or saying sell it down to 1650 sell to have a 1650 so they nail that and then at the end of the day they bring it back here and they go to the customers they listen I did better than the average price this stock is a buy I believe by next week midweek when we realize what they're doing is what everybody needs to do which is one day one day is what we all want so they're giving you they have a customer's always right position they're gonna give you what you want backing it up with the spending now don't you walk that a hundred thousand people hired in the quarter because they're juggernaut hundred thousand people well it's a lot of people that's a lot of people well because they have a lot of business people are worried you know what this is a very it's become a very anecdotal story there's questions and people saying yeah I see a lot of your trucks on the road is that costing a lot what is this like fifth grade hey no kids it's costing what it needs to cost and yes you see Amazon trucks all the time you see cuz that's because they're taking product to where it has to go so I think that this is ridiculous I think that you know they put out these numbers and people think that they're downbeat and they're along well there's a couple silos of worry here one is the revenue guide the others AWS deceleration thirty five percent is the lowest since they've been giving us that data four years ago I didn't want to see that if you ask me what the negative is when you look at as your are they doing better but now sure Amy Hood said listen we're having a little bit of slowdown too but it's a slow down versus incredibly large number so I mean you take a look at Intel and what they're saying but in the data center then you know data centers just don't fire its own cyber app we haven't heard from what Google say we're gonna find out yet oh boy I think that's gonna be the most important one because if Google really started taking share then you'll suddenly have an explanation for this but right now I say look it's all systems go the people were worried about Amazon are the same people with running out of Amazon time and time again and why are so few people enabling a bid on the whole ride for Amazon because in days like today where they take it seriously and say wow Amazon's in trouble Amazon is not trouble amazon has been with the customer once and then it tries to figure out how to do it more cheaply I think it's guess there are some who'd expected because they've had a deceleration in this quarter in the past was also a holiday in India that some people are sightings perhaps having depressed some business you think Andy Joshy is suddenly lost it Andy chassis runs web services easy-to-use they keep cutting the price is interesting though when you think about the long-term prospects for this company 10 years ago even five years ago we were not really talking a great deal about Amazon web server Tizen which are now the key parts of the profitability business you mention advertisers very good by the way in the port 45 30 separate cent growth rate last quarter but this it's the glue thesis I'm trying to bust they are not gloomy they are not worried they are just matter of fact doing their job getting their assignment right they are Belichick they are the Patriots if you think they've lost it if you think Brady's retiring if you're upset the fact that someone stole Brady's jersey forget about it it's fine they're going all the way they have home-field advantage they're going to be the Super Bowl getting by Amazon Super Bowl a hundred days away from today believe it or not I know it's amazing to already have it be this the to have it be the Green Bay versus but I just like game asylum don't buy it now they're good the people are selling it Carl they're gonna keep selling it all day so when who's buying it spoke today says they've had 72 earnings reports October of I think 2001 mushroom so I have the past 72 reports its gapped down six plus about a third of the time data this is not unusual that's good information and what it says is I always feel like that people look at their projections and decide Amazons worried or not and what Amazon doesn't Amazon is just they're trying to feel they're not as bad as net with some protections but it was very excited they know that they have a winner with one day so then they have to do one day and then they figure out how to make one day cheap and then something suddenly you buy it and the gross margins fly up and advertising margins are good and jassi's doing a good job of web services you say hey I got a chance again to get in you
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