저자: Dr.EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
최근 5년 넘게 인플레이션이 2% 목표를 웃돌고 있으며, 팬데믹 소비 붐, 공급망 충격, 우크라이나 전쟁 및 유가 상승 등 복합 요인이 원인이라고 진단. 연준이 2024~2025년 금리를 인하한 것은 실수였고 채권시장(2년물)은 최대 3회 금리 인상을 반영 중이라고 봄. 워시 신임 의장도 물가 안정을 최우선으로 하지 않으면 안 되며, 9월 인상 기대가 있다고 언급. 연준 정책보다 채권금리와 원자재 시장이 인플레이션을 더 좌우한다는 주장.
다듬은 글
Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for more than 5 years. I think it's 63 consecutive months. Yes. Why is that happening? What have been the main factors behind this persistent inflation? Well, clearly, I mean, I don't think inflation is solely a monetary phenomenon. I don't think the Fed is the only one that can control inflation.
From time to time we have these inflationary increases and sometimes it's just a combination of bad luck along with bad policies. So, the pandemic turned out to be inflationary because once we were confined for 2 months, once we were allowed out, we all did...maybe not all of us were locked down. You know, we all suffer from lockdown syndrome.
We didn't do it . Spending like crazy. Yes. You know, as soon as they let us out, the best way to deal with being cooped up was to go shopping, go to the mall, spend money, and we couldn't do that in restaurants. Services were still operating with social distancing measures, so we went out to buy supplies.
Mhm. And there was a huge buying frenzy of goods, which clashed with disruptions in the supply chain. Then, we had this big increase in inflation. And then, of course, in 2021 and then in 2022, we had an increase in oil prices due to the war between Ukraine and Russia. Russia invading Ukraine. And none of that was really a monetary phenomenon, although the Fed clearly provided a lot of liquidity to deal with the pandemic, so they weren't innocent observers.
And then, arguably, they were a little late in recognizing that inflation was more persistent. But you know, sometimes these markets deal with these problems, the problem of inflation, on their own, especially commodity markets. We all know the phrase: the best cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices.
TRUE. And so, we really did reach a significant peak in the price of oil in early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and then proceeded to fall quite consistently until the war started this time. As I mentioned, the Fed did respond and raised interest rates from zero to 5.5%. Everyone was scared that this would cause a recession, and Powell said, you know, we believe we can still have a path here between recession and reducing inflation.
It turned out he was right. A soft landing, so to speak. Yes. Yes, and it turned out we were right because everyone else was saying that the recession was inevitable. Oh, and in 2022 we did have a bear market. Uh, I didn't see that coming. I, I, I saw a correction coming. It turned out to be a bear market, and it was fairly conventional, with a 25% drop in the market in less than 9 months.
That's a pretty average bear market, but there was no recession. So, you know, I prematurely said in June that I thought we had hit rock bottom, and then we tested it again in October and I said, I think that's the bottom. Well, it turned out I was right, and then, of course, a couple of months later...
well, a month later, at the end of November, we had the, uh, the ChatGPT, and that got the whole market excited about the new happy world. Uh, and this time, uh, I would clearly say that everyone was under the impression, they had some confidence, that inflation would continue to moderate to 2%, but then the war came, oil prices rose, there were supply chain disruptions, once again, and, uh, and the Fed is still thinking that.
Uh, so I think where we are now is that inflation has been persistently closer to 3% than 2%. Uh, I opposed what the Fed did in 2024. They lowered the federal funds rate by 100 basis points, four times, 25 basis points each time. I said, "Look, the economy doesn't really need it." " Inflation is not yet at 2%." And I said, "You know, the bond market isn't going to like this." And I coined the phrase "bond watchers" a long time ago .
Yes, a long time ago, back in 1983. I said, "The bond watchdogs aren't going to agree with you." And indeed, the bond yields fully compensated for that. Bond yields rose 100 basis points. Yes. I would say that bond yields are more important than the federal funds rate. And then they did it again. They simply don't listen to me.
Uh, last year, they lowered it by 75 basis points, three times. And I said, "I don't think this makes any sense ." And by the way, that's what made Powell-Trump absolutely hate Powell, that he cut rates before the election. Um, he thought he was...yes, trying to help the other party. Yeah . Well, he was...They sold it as an insurance policy.
The Fed sold it as an insurance policy because they thought inflation was on the right track and it seemed to them that the labor market needed some help. And uh now the two-year bond uh is basically asking for three rate hikes uh in the next few months uh and uh because it's like at 4.25%, the federal funds rate is 75 basis points below that.
So, basically, he's saying, "Now, you have to cancel that insurance policy." Um, and uh, that's more or less where we are now . The Fed has historically tracked that two-year bond. Yes. Yes, but you know, it got very complicated here because now Warsh, who, uh, you know, interviewed for the job of Fed chairman and got the position, is saying, "Yes, yes, we should lower interest rates ." Uh, I'm in favor of the offer.
Productivity is going to be great. "AI is wonderful." Uh, suddenly it comes in, gets the job, and says, "My number one priority is price stability." It didn't say, "My number one priority is lowering interest rates." Um, and um, I think it's crossing its fingers and hoping the war ends, that oil prices come down, that inflation returns to a moderate trend.
But it has a problem. The midterm elections are coming up, and the president will start attacking it if the Fed uh starts raising rates before the election. And you know, everyone expects the Fed to start raising rates in September. I like that mindset. You said you don't think inflation is strictly a monetary phenomenon.
It could just be bad luck. And then you listed, you know, we had the COVID shutdown. We had...at one point, we had 100 container ships waiting out of the Port of Los Angeles, right? And then we had tariffs, and then we had um, the war in Ukraine, and then we had the Strait of Hormuz. And so it's been a crisis of Offer after offer.
And tariffs last year, and it looks like we're having tariffs again this year. So, uh, yeah. You know, um, many, many kinds of inflationary shocks. And, well, you know, everyone's scratching their heads, trying to figure out, how do you handle an inflationary shock? Do you see it as a transitory thing, as a one-off, or are you worried about so-called second- and third-round effects?
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