저자: JamieDimon와여러패널 · 외국인
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결론: 금리가 예상보다 오래 높게 유지될 수 있다는 관점에서 중앙은행 경제 전망이 빗나갈 수 있다고 주장하는 영상. 제이미 다이먼 발언: 중앙은행들이 경제 예측에서 틀렸다고 지적. 미국 기준금리가 최대 7%까지 갈 수 있다고 언급하며 정부의 대규모 재정지출이 계속되면 금리 인상 폭(25bp든 100bp든) 차이가 크지 않다고 봄. 다이먼 발언(계속): 2024년 경착륙(hard landing)·연착륙(soft landing)은 보지 않으며 금리는 당분간 높게 유지될 것이라고 전망. 재정 부양(칩법, IRA, 인프라)이 인플레이션 압력으로 작용한다고 설명. 데이비드 솔로몬 관련 논의: 팬데믹 이후 과도한 자신감과 재정 부양, 저금리 자금으로 M&A·사모펀드 활동이 급증했으나 현재는 불확실성으로 신중해졌다는 취지. 패널 토론: 금리 인상이 늦었다는 평가와 인플레이션·성장 균형을 맞추려는 중앙은행의 딜레마 논의. 선거 등 정치 변수와 중앙은행 예측의 신뢰성 문제 제기. 중앙은행 평가: 예측이 완벽할 수 없으며 새로운 지정학적 변수(중동 등)가 계속 등장한다는 점 강조. 루마니아 중앙은행 총재 등도 언급되나 구체 수치는 없음. 경기 전망: 독일 등 일부 국가 경기 둔화 언급. 침체가 언제 올지 불확실하며 연착륙·경착륙 양쪽 모두 불확실성이 크다는 결론. 리스크: 금리 고점 장기화, 재정 지출 지속, 지정학적 충격, 중앙은행 예측 오류.
다듬은 글
with the rock in the command center Jamie Diamond says that the central banks are 100% wrong economic forecasts this after the calculations of jp Morgan gave other figures come other increases in interest rates says he at the Future investment summit urges caution the key interest rate could reach even 7% in the United States for nothing interest rates are rising but if the government continues to spend Big sums I don't think it makes any difference if the banks increase by 25 or 100 points also says Jamie Diamond Around the it's More Than ever in by long shot with the highest de level ever had by and there kind of Feeling that central Banks and govern Man through All this stuff cautious I don't think l ce Black rock aterizaģe la ț fed [ __ ] interest rates are to remain higher I do not we will not see a hard soft landing in 2024 the amount of fiscal stimulus is entering economy Which is inflation Chips ira and infrastructure 970 David Solomon has another plate he gave up on digal but still he talks all about interest rates but with effect he sits at the round table on mergers and acquisitions that mixes CEO and you're uncertain you tend to be cautious about doing significant things Uh that change the trajectory of your business and Bring outside you know factors into your business I think We had a a level of Extreme confidence Uh as we were coming out of the pandemic Because of All the fiscal stimulus Because of How free money was and so you Saw an extraordinary Boom m activity very significant portion of it was driven by financial sponsors and private equity the most pessimistic I want to add before the rest it seemed to me he has his fill now he probably entered a slope of this where he feels strong he came with very good reports the last few days He is in peak performance as one would say both on the numbers and on what he wants to achieve and he wants to Certainly send a message to see someone else at this summit Yes I saw that I was trying to say earlier stopped this round table even In fact you caught my attention initially How they sat like that at a table that will be Lancelot there that will be King Arthur maybe Jamie Diamond that's why he wants to take the sword but let him be the leader I think that's what he's trying to do differently it seems to me a strong message and I basically finished the previous intervention on this very idea some giants of the business area of the financial and fiscal area are meeting in Saudi Arabia Maybe this is also a signal and it really stands out as you say Jamie Diamond with a message that is too sharp and too directed towards Geron Paul who has work to do the people of Hamas have messed up his plans a lot Yes that's probably where we should start and the environmental activists and the activists and everything that's happening next and of course there are effects And if he was preparing to keep the interest rate high or I don't know Maybe he could even pivot sooner rather than later S He might not be able to at the moment and Jamie Diamond comes to tell us how the calculations from the beginning were not good Well no but new elements appear all the time that is to say and if we say that the Fed is proves that his prediction was wrong then you have to take into account that some additional tensions have arisen anyway that you didn't know about you have no way regardless of whether you are the Fed or you are Geron Paul or if you are Mugu Isărescu you can't even though look our governor has saved us from some pretty tough situations But you can't anticipate or predict only Nostradamus could if jamy diamond could It was like he was with the executives from jp Morgan That's how he gave me the impression at that round table I don't know now what the procedures are If you want to take it like that or if the central banks They will certainly look at what they have what he said but I don't know What measures they will take in this direction to somehow deny or defend themselves we still have Dragoș cabat economist told us that there is a direction in which we can agree with what Jamie Diamond was saying you saw that he also referred to these unlimited increases meaning you can increase the interest rate by 100% that nothing will be seen except in a way that will you're convincing me that he's actually defending Geron Paul, he's practically preparing us for what's coming, it's not his fault.
He reduced as much as he could or increased as much as he could. Who knows what strategy Jamie Diamond had. We can only get some ideas about what the banks might have done wrong or what might have been a mistake 18 months ago, as Jamie Diamond says. They didn't rush with this key interest rate increase.
Yes, they did it too late, not very. But when they saw that there were signs of an increase in inflation and destabilization at this level, they had to start, even if there was this risk of recession. They are now trying to strike a balance between inflation and GDP growth. Here's what Dragoș Cabat says, and I found it very interesting.
The presidential elections are coming up. The figures are really real. Yes, the forecasts are real, but the central banks influenced these figures. Yes, let's see how they look in the forecasts at the moment. After all, they didn't want to affect or destabilize the economy in such a strong way. and not to upset them somehow to upset the large financial institutions investment funds For example, I also saw the Black Rock CEO or the principled rich so there are still some very difficult choices that the central banks have to make to somehow stabilize the situation and balance it exactly that is the word Good and if I have to keep the direction I started and the big banks yes the banks on Wall Street except for the central ones that you talked about and they also have their calculations which are also real but also made in advance and In an attempt to somehow influence It is probably happening today or these days at the summit each one wants to pull the truth to their side and leave the other one discovered in case of something because it seems to me Anyway that both in Romania as we started the show and in the United States and all over the world it might be nothing more than a postponement the Germans might proceed a little more correctly to put it that way because they are already saying sir we have an economic downturn 05 How long will it be there I don't know It seems that things seem to be looking Worse than the rest but it will still be better towards the end because we might find ourselves keeping postponing that point where we will fall from very high or from high into an abyss in
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