저자: Investing_Gurus · 외국인
다듬은 글
i'm michael zenga from danvers massachusetts that's the town who's missed who's banned mr buffett so generously sent to the rose bowl parade last year so you're a very popular guy in my town good morning mr buffett mr munger mr buffett i want to ask you this question last week when i ran into you after gillette's annual meeting but i choked so now there's no pressure here goes in the years from my reading in the years from 1956 through 69 you achieved the best results of your career quantitatively 29 annually against only 7 for the dow your approach then was different than now you look for lots of undervalued stocks with less attention to competitive advantage or favorable economics and sold them rather quickly as your capital base grew you switch your approach to buying undervalued excellent companies with favorable long-term economics my question is if you're investing a small sum today which approach would you use well i would use the approach that i think i'm using now of trying to search out businesses that where i think they're selling at the lowest price relative to the discounted cash they would produce in the future but if i were working with a small amount of money the universe would be huge compared to the universe of possible ideas i work with now you mentioned that 50 c to 69 was the best period actually my best period was before that was from right after i met ben graham in 19 early 1951 but from the end of 1950 through the next 10 years actually returns averaged about 50 a year and i think they were 37 points better than the dow per year something like that but that i was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money and so i would pour through volumes of businesses and i would find one or two that i could put ten thousand dollars into or fifteen thousand dollars into that would just ridicul they were ridiculously cheap and obviously as the money increased uh that the universe of possible ideas started shrinking dramatically the times were also better for doing it in that time but i i think that i think if you're working with a small amount of money with exactly the same background that charlie and i have and same ideas same same whatever ability we have you know i think you can make very significant sums but you but as soon as you start getting the money up into the millions many millions the the the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically uh but that's that's the nature of it you've got to you know when you've you when you get up to things you can put millions of dollars into you've got a lot of competition looking at that and they're not looking as i did when i started when i started i went through the pages of the manuals page by page i mean i went through 20 000 pages in the moody's industrial transportation banks and finance manuals and i did it twice and i actually you know looked at every business i didn't look very hard at some well that's not a practical way to invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars so i would say if you're working with a small sum of money that and you're really interested in in in the business and willing to do the work you can you will find something if you were there's no question about in my mind you will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to uh deliver with large sums of money charlie well yeah i think that's right a brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out uh unusual mispriced opportunities but you know you could that's such a small world it may be a way for one person to come up but it's a it's a long slog yeah most smart people unfortunately in wall street figure that they can make a lot more money a lot easier just by one way or another you know uh getting an override on other people's money or or or uh delivering services in some way that people and the monetization of hope and greed you know as a way to make a huge amount of money and right now it's very just take hedge funds i mean it's i i've had calls from a couple of friends in the last month that don't know anything about that investing money they've been unsuccessful and everything else and you know one of them called me that they said well i'm forming a small hedge fund 125 million he was talking about like the thought that since it was only 125 million maybe we ought to put in 10 million or something i mean if you looked at this fellows schedule d on his 10 40 for the last 20 years you know you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns but yeah but he may get 125 million i mean you know and it's it's just astounding to me how willing people are during a bull market just to just to toss money around because they you know they think it's easy and and of course that's that's what they felt about innocent stocks a few years ago they're thinking about something else next year too but uh the the biggest money made you know in wall street in recent years has not been made by great performance but it's been by been made by great promotion basically charlie do you have anything well i would state it even more strongly i think the current scene is obscene i think there's too much mania there's too much chasing after easy money there's too much uh misleading sales material about investments there's too much on the television emphasizing speculation in stocks hi i'm howard winston from cincinnati ohio first i wanted to thank you and your you and charlie for your sharing your time with us today thank you my question is you've repeatedly said that you see many wonderful stock ideas but can't invest because they're too small given that many in the audience today have a lower dollar investment threshold do these stocks have names well said well the answer to that is that we don't look anymore that we we assume that there are a reasonable number of opportunities as you work with smaller amounts of capital because it's always been true i mean it was over the years as i looked at things clearly you run into companies that are less followed as you get smaller and there's more chances for inefficiency when you're dealing with something where you can buy a hundred thousand dollars worth of it in a month rather than a hundred million but that is not because i'm carrying around in my head the names of 25 companies that we could put a hundred thousand and i just don't look at that at that universe anymore i sometimes people send me annual reports or i get letters from managers and they they say well you know i've got this wonderful thing and i look i i usually know ahead of time but i mean though i would first look at the size and if the size isn't isn't right and it isn't going to be virtually any time i don't i don't look any further because there's just no time to be looking at at uh at all kinds of smaller opportunities i do think i do think if you're working with very small amounts of money that that there almost always are some significant inefficiency someplace to find things that i've mentioned to some people when i started out i actually went through the all of the moody's manuals and the standard manuals page by page and you could and you know it's probably 20 000 pages but but uh there were a lot of things that popped out and none of them were in any brokerage report or anything sort they were just plain overlooked and you had to you could you could find out about them but nobody was going to tell you about them uh and my guess is that that continues to be true but not on anything like the scale it was then charlie well i can remember when you bought one membership in some duck club that had oil in under it when you were young yeah there was a company when you get down to one duck club membership well you're really scavenging for cigar buds what not a bad cigar but there were 98 shares outstanding it was the delta duck club and the the delta deck club was founded by 100 guys who put in 50 bucks each except two fellows didn't pay so there were only 98 shares outstanding they bought a piece of land down in louisiana and one time somebody shot downward instead of upward and oil and gas started spewing forth out of the ground so they renamed it atlan which is delta's spell backwards which was sort of illustrated the sophistication of this group and and a few years later they were taking up at three dollar barrel oil they were taking about a million dollars a year in royalties out of the place and the stock was selling at twenty nine thousand dollars a share and it was earning ten thousand dollars a share no it was earning about turning about seven thousand dollars a share after tax about eleven thousand pre-tax and it had about twenty thousand to share in cash and it was a long lived field so you know i use that sometimes as an example of efficient markets because somebody called me and offered me a share of it and uh those things you know is is that an efficient market or not you know twenty nine thousand for twenty thousand of cash plus eleven thousand royalty income and twenty five cent gas and three dollar oil i don't think so that you can find things out there i'll give you hunting rights on all my duck clubs in the future you
Comments 0