저자: JohnPalmer · 외국인
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Michael Burry의 13F 공시를 둘러싼 '대폭락 경고' 자극적 보도를 비판하고, 개별 투자 조언의 위험과 자산운용의 현실을 논하는 영상. 핵심 결론: Burry의 움직임은 단기 시장 예측 근거로 보기 어렵고, 분석가들도 자주 틀린다는 점을 감안해 맹목적 추종을 경계해야 한다. Burry 포트폴리오: 2022년 2분기 기준 대부분 보유 자산을 정리(QT 시기)하고 GEO Group(GEO)에 약 300만 달러를 신규 매수. Apple 숏 포지션은 청산했는데, 그 이후 애플이 두 달간 32% 상승해 결과적으로 현명한 결정이었다고 평가. 워런 버핏: 버크셔 포트폴리오를 크게 현금화하지 않고 소폭 조정만 하는 중. 다음 13F 공시 전까지는 실제 행보를 알 수 없음. 개인 투자 조언 이슈: 호주에서는 금융서비스 라이선스가 필요하며, 미국 사례도 마찬가지로 타인 자금 운용은 조언 행위에 해당할 수 있음. 본인 포트폴리오 성과: 2018년 12월 '인베스트 포 더 퓨처' 시작 이후 연환산 수익률 10.4%(작년 약 18%에서 하락, 2022년 상반기 고성장주 약세 영향). 3년 기준 벤치마크인 STW 6.87%, VAS 0.79%(배당 포함)와 비교해 약 3%p 초과 성과. 펀드 평가: 제시된 다수 매니저 펀드는 본인 포트폴리오보다 낮은 3년 평균 수익률. 펀드 투자 자체는 부정하지 않으나 실적 검증이 필요하다고 강조. 데이터 출처는 InvestSmart(2019년 6월 기준). 가상 펀드 운용 계산: 100명 평균 50만 달러, 총 5,000만 달러 운용 시 보수 1.35%로 연 약 67.5만 달러 수익을 가정하며 자산 규모 확대 시 수익 확대를 농담조로 논함. 다만 운용 규모 확대에 따른 스트레스와 종목 진입 제약을 한계로 인정. 통계적 결론: 대다수 펀드 매니저는 수수료만큼의 가치를 제공하지 못한다는 데이터가 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 발언은 없음. 장기적으로 개별 종목·지수 대비 자신의 전략 우위를 주장하는 정도.
다듬은 글
well good morning again everyone thanks so much for tuning in well michael bury's latest 13f filings certainly gave many youtube finance channels fodder for some more scare-mongering about the impending collapse of everything did michael bury just bet on america's crash game over michael burry 2022 final crash and recession warning michael bury just bent all in on a global financial crash or michael burry selling everything final warning to investors or michael bury the big stock market crash is imminent well yes indeed he do he did sell all of his holdings during qt but then did buy another new position namely geo group ticker code geo a company that provides enhanced in-custody rehabilitation post-release support electronic monitoring and community-based programs for people who have been imprisoned but it's only a three million dollar position which is a pittance compared to the total value of the portfolio the big question that interests me however is why did he sell his largest short position in apple if he thinks big tech is going the way of the titanic along with the rest of the market now as it turns out that decision was quite prudent because apple has rallied 32 in the last two months another question worthy of some thought is what is he doing with all the cash that he's got now available for him to deploy anyway you can't argue with the fact that at some point during the period april 1st through to june 30 he decided to take almost all of sign capital's money off the table we won't find out for at least a few months whether he shorted the market or any individual stocks during q3 and while all this is going on and exciting content creators warren buffett just plodded along as usual tinkering around at the margin with a few of his positions and so he's not seeing any reason to take a sizeable portion of the berkshire portfolio to cash just yet but as for bury we won't know what he's been doing lately either until his next 13f filing is released so for us mere mortals this really is just all noise and we have to navigate our way through earnings reports outlook statements geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts by supposed experts who are wrong as often as they are right perhaps barry's analysis will prove to be correct but there is no guarantee of that which brings me back to one of my pet topics which i have alluded to a few times on the channel and that's the merits of allowing someone else to manage your investments for you in australia you need to at least have an australian financial services license to be able to do that not sure whether that's the case in the u.s but those who've invested in burries scion capital or buffett's berkshire hathaway are in essence accepting financial advice from them in the case of bury get out of the market as fast as you can in the case of buffett just keep doing what we've always been doing i would really love to be able to have a great stack of money to invest in the market on behalf of others but i can't do that for obvious reasons and why would i want to do that anyway well it would be just about the easiest way to make a squillion dollars without having to do too much work trying to outperform market indexes such as the asx 200 or the 300 is not necessarily easy and while the content that i delivered when the channel was called invest for the future showed how you might go about that it also showed how some well-researched and back-tested strategies don't always beat the benchmark against which they are compared but since i started invest for the future in december of 2018 right through to the time that i needed to stop making content that could be interpreted as individual financial advice the returns from investing in the strategies that i developed were well in front of just investing into broad market index funds such as stw or vis now you're going to have to take my word for it but the compound annual growth rate of the portfolio that i discussed on iftf is 10.4 percent it was almost 18 at this time last year and so 2022 has been a salutary lesson about how the market can jump up and bite you if the strategies that you're employing deliver stocks that are not in the favored basket of mr market high growth stocks were not the preferred flavor in the first six months of 2022 and so my portfolio has had to absorb some serious punishment but every portfolio should be measured against an appropriate benchmark and according to stock doctor the average annual returns for stw and vas which are kind of the benchmarks that i compare myself with if you include dividends over the last three years the returns were six point eight seven percent and zero point seven nine percent respectively so in the end i have to be happy with that three percent out performance not staggering but enough to have made the time spent on research worth it but compared to some reasonably well known managed funds i'm somewhat delighted on screen are the average annual returns for a range of funds none of which achieved a better return than my portfolio now i'm absolutely sure that there are some funds that have delivered the goods so don't get me wrong i'm not saying that you shouldn't use managed funds as one of your investment vehicles but do your own research before deciding whether your fund of interest has the track record to warrant consideration you can access information about the performance of managed funds at invest smart and the link for that is in the video description okay so why would i want to be a fund manager well it's those management fees that attract me i don't know how many billions of dollars are managed by these funds but i reckon i'd be able to attract at least some to my managed fund given the historical performance described above so let's say i find a hundred people willing to entrust me with their investment dollars on an average they have a balance of five hundred thousand dollars that's fifty million dollars earning me management fees of say one point three five percent that's a cool six hundred and seventy five thousand dollars okay i might have to employ someone to manage the administration and allowing for some other costs i reckon that leaves about a half a million for me not a squillion dollars i suppose but not bad once the word gets out funds will start to pour in because of the performance of the fund and i'll scoop up all of those disillusioned dollars that are exiting magellan and platinum i can see a future with funds under management of a billion dollars and i'll then be ordering my yacht and lamborghini for sure only problem is i wouldn't be able to handle the stress of managing that much money also there'll be some of my stocks i wouldn't be able to enter because of the size of the fund and i certainly last of all don't want the responsibility the final point that i will make though is that the statistics show that the majority of fund managers are not worth the management fees that they charge the data on screen is sourced from invest smart and while they are as at june 2019 i would be amazed if they were much different today given the three-year returns that i displayed earlier in the post so that's it for today with reporting season in full swing i have been updating my patrons with the daily market reactions to company reports and yesterday discussed approaches to rebalancing a portfolio and my thoughts on rotating capital rather than buy and hold forever i do look forward to catching up with you again next sunday and until then as always stay safe and stay well
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